Run home to Finals - 2018

[bandicoot 1,395]

On 8/7/2018 at 8:10 PM, Graeme Yeats' Mullet said:

There's a little bit of getting ahead of yourselves here people...

We need to win 2 to be guaranteed a finals an none of them are easy (Gellong beating Hawthorn will hurt our chances)

As Goody said: let's just focus on the next challenge, the ladder will take care of itsel

Edited August 8, 2018 by bandicoot

[bandicoot 1,395]

16 hours ago, whelan45 said:

I would say it is more likely than not that you will need 14 wins to play finals. Key outcomes to require this:

Geelong to beat Hawks - Highly likely on current form

North to beat Adelaide away - probably most iffy result, but big chance Adelaide season already over when they play

Port to win one of WC at home or Pies at G - Big chance given Gaff impact and Pies massive injuy list

Hawks to beat Swans round 23 - if Sydney have nothing to play for likely, if they do, they probably beat us this week, which is not good!

Amazing we could possibly be top 4 AFTER this round and still miss!

Scary scenario. I would be gutted to miss out on 13 wins

[Demonsone 1,594]

15 hours ago, Fatman Blues said:

Apologies if this has been written elsewhere

Only two teams haven't beaten a side in the top eight (as at the end of Round 20) - Carlton and Melbourne.

Bizarre fact - we have yet to play Swans, Eagles and Giants.

Our last three games - Swans, Eagles and Giants

Weird..................

That’s why this competition is so uneven if not unfair 

[John Demonic 4,782]

Make sure you're all using the faster ladder predictor. Can do each run within a minute or two.

https://predictor.squiggle.com.au

An intersting function at the top of the main page screen is How many % people are tipping each team.

https://squiggle.com.au

73% have us beating Sydney, 55% have West Coast beating us and we're currently 63% beating GWS

Edited August 8, 2018 by johndemonic

[At the break of Gawn 3,474]

I’m not sure if that has been posted yet, but this season is reminding me a little of the 1998 season at its end. We beat Sydney at the G on a Monday night in Rnd 21 to secure a spot in the finals and then we defeated Richmond in rnd 22 to secure a top 4. Richmond needed to win to make finals but having lost to us, instead finished 9th (which could be like for GWS although I suspect they will still make it)

 

Edited August 8, 2018 by At the break of Gawn

[highroller 112]

28 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

I’m not sure if that has been posted yet, but this season is reminding me a little of the 1998 season at its end. We beat Sydney at the G on a Monday night in Rnd 21 to secure a spot in the finals and then we defeated Richmond in rnd 22 to secure a top 4. Richmond needed to win to make finals but having lost to us, instead finished 9th (which could be like for GWS although I suspect they will still make it)

 

ahh memories that Richmond game is the Farmer sitting on that dudes head in the first couple of minutes game isn't it? one of my favourites as a kid

[Rogue 585]

1 hour ago, johndemonic said:

An intersting function at the top of the main page screen is How many % people are tipping each team.

https://squiggle.com.au

73% have us beating Sydney, 55% have West Coast beating us and we're currently 63% beating GWS

For what it's worth, that's not actually what the numbers mean - it's nothing to do with the number of people tipping each team.

The percentage figures indicate the probability of a win, based on an aggregate of a bunch of models Squiggle collates. (The red line is the aggregate; the black lines indicate individual models).

Thus, the 73% means that the model(s) estimate a 73% probability of us defeating Sydney. In other words, if we played 100 times, the likelihood is that we'd win 73 of them.

[Superunknown 3,307]

1 hour ago, Rogue said:

For what it's worth, that's not actually what the numbers mean - it's nothing to do with the number of people tipping each team.

The percentage figures indicate the probability of a win, based on an aggregate of a bunch of models Squiggle collates. (The red line is the aggregate; the black lines indicate individual models).

Thus, the 73% means that the model(s) estimate a 73% probability of us defeating Sydney. In other words, if we played 100 times, the likelihood is that we'd win 73 of them.

Interesting that all the models have us beating them, and most by decent margins. Thanks for the clarification.

[Smokey 4,112]

We will finish top 4 this year. The boys are ready. 

[Wells 11 4,655]

Just now, Smokey said:

We will finish top 4 this year. The boys are ready. 

...and if they're not.. then we most certainly are ? 

[What 18,810]

16 minutes ago, Smokey said:

We will finish top 4 this year. The boys are ready. 

I like that we have three tough assignments on the run home.  It should keep the players on their toes with no complacency unlike the Round 23 debacle last season.

Edited August 8, 2018 by Petraccattack

[Watson11 1,881]

8 hours ago, Hogan2014 said:

That’s why this competition is so uneven if not unfair 

It’s unfair that Adelaide had to play us twice! They could be sitting in 3rd if that hadn’t happened!

[Smokey 4,112]

4 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

I like that we have three tough assignments on the run home.  It should keep the players on their toes with no complacency unlike the Round 23 debacle last season.

Agreed. Rather the boys be under pressure for the weeks leading in rather than walking through easy games and then trying to get ready for real games in September. 

[jnrmac 18,914]

On 8/7/2018 at 11:07 AM, MSFebey said:

Field of play dimensions is 165m along the east-west axis and 130m on the north-south axis. This is slightly shorter than Domain Stadium (Subiaco Oval) but aligned with the MCG, which is 160m x 141m.

The length is somewhat irrelevant, its the width that causes teams more difficulty in defending with a press.

[jnrmac 18,914]

FWIW Squiggle Autotip has us finishing 2nd..

 

 

[What 18,810]

4 hours ago, johndemonic said:

Make sure you're all using the faster ladder predictor. Can do each run within a minute or two.

https://predictor.squiggle.com.au

 

Spot on.  The afl.com ladder predictor is terrible functionality wise.

Squiggle predictor is much easier to use, but only goes up to 65 points and you cant predict a draw.

Edited August 8, 2018 by Petraccattack

[worldwideweb_demon 90]

What's with the pages and pages of ladder predictions...

Never done the ladder predictor ever before but I've got us finishing top after Tigers are upset by Essendon then rest their star players in the last round. Eagles to lose to Port also.

[Lord Travis 10,141]

2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

FWIW Squiggle Autotip has us finishing 2nd..

 

 

It runs simulations and therefore is different every time. I’ve run it a bunch of times and had us finishing anywhere from 2nd through to 10th.

Edited August 9, 2018 by Lord Travis

[old55 21,216]

17 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

It runs simulations and therefore is different every time. I’ve run it a bunch of times and had us finishing anywhere from 2nd through to 10th.

If you look at this page:

https://live.squiggle.com.au/#tower

You need to click on TOWER in the top menu bar

It shows the probability of finishing position based on running (10,000?) simulations

Max Barry's footy data visualisation is 2nd to none

Edited August 9, 2018 by Fifty-5

[Jaded No More 57,653]

A lot will depend on our injuries. We can ill afford to lose anymore of our key players and with Gawn in doubt now, our chances have just taken a dive. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,101]

On the assumption we win 13 games and beat Sydney:

I'd rather Geelong beat Hawthorn.

Yeah sure Geelong will get to 14 wins, but the loser of Hawthorn v Sydney in rd 23 will likely miss the finals on 13 wins.

If Hawthorn beat Geelong, Geelong will still finish higher than us on percentage as they will win their last 2 games by a combined 200 points.

So if Hawthorn beat Geelong and we only win 13 games, the possible ladder could look like this:

RICH 18-4

WCE 16-6

GWS 15-6-1

COLL 15-7

HAWKS 14-8

PORT   14-8

NORTH 14-8

GEEL 13-9

MELB 13-9

 

[Demonland 64,409]

 

[DubDee 20,340]

If Geelong beat Hawks I have the Dees missing if we only beat Sydney.  Cats, Roos, Hawks, Pies on 14 wins

If Hawks win I have us 8th edging out the Cats on % (which would be so sweet) by 4% - Cats win last 2 by 64pts. if they win 100pts each we would swap places

In summary = unless there are upsets, WE REALLY NEED 2 WINS to be safe

[dl4e 5,581]

We will win 14 games. And that could be lose to sydney but beat both eagles and giants.

[j mac 0]

I think Adelaide can pick off North at AO pretty comfortably, leaving North on 13 wins and out of the top 8

Edited August 9, 2018 by j mac