Run home to Finals - 2018

[juzzk1d 1,354]

When will people understand that some of our best footy is interstate when our backs are against the wall?

I don’t know about you, but I’m more confident against teams like Adelaide and Geelong away than I am against GWS at the MCG.

We travel very well and were unlucky against Port who have proven to be a very good team at Adelaide Oval, the only team we have lost to interstate this year. Beating the Lions at the Gabba was a lot harder in retrospect than what most thought. 

The Melbourne team I know is the one that always proves me right. Lose to St Kilda on our home turf, but look like first class against a harder opponent on their ground.

Expect at least one 30+ point win against Geelong, Adelaide and or West Coast. 

Go Dees.

[DeleteUser 638]

On 7/14/2018 at 11:07 PM, A F said:

I agree about the flakiness of other clubs, but I reckon it all comes down to next week. We beat Geelong and we make finals, lose and I don't think we'll get there.

Beat Geelong and make finals?

Even if we lose to Crows, Swans, Eagles, GWS but beat Suns?

[Lucifers Hero 36,983]

Here is the latest view of the run home for the top 10 teams. 

This week I have included Lions as one of the teams opponents will need to show extra respect.  The Port loss to Freo shows there are absolutely no gimmies.

 

I reckon we can make the top 4!!  Yes the pressure is on us to win enough games but there is equal pressure on Magpies and Swans who also have a nasty draw.  They each might easily drop 3 or 4 of the last 6.   

The most likely to drop from the top 4 is Magpies?. They play 4 of the winning teams from the weekend and the other 2 lost by a kick.   Demons and the Giants are in the box seat to pinch their top 4 spot.

My confidence comes from our 3rd qtr on Saturday.  Reading Oliver and Brayshaw comments on their talk around the ground and with Max before center bounces and watching how they played was  inspired.  I reckon that quarter was galvanising for the team. 

We have played our most consistent and our best footy over the last month with two small losses and two huge wins.   That consistency also gives me confidence in what we can do.

Last year 15 games made it to top 4.  This year 14 plus a good percentage may do the trick.  Yes, one week at a time but I now dare to dream!

Edited October 21, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[beelzebub 22,225]

All we need to do is channel the Dees of '87 

( Except that bit with #11 ??)

[DubDee 20,363]

We are in the 8 by a game and significant %. So essentially 2 games in the 8 unless we lose a couple of games by 100pts.

If the Roos and Hawks lose 1 game each out of 6, we need 3 wins to get in on %

I think they are likely to lose 2 games each so we only need 2 wins. 

How good are the Lions!  put us in a good position after beating the Hawks.  They are a good chance to beat the crows on Sat and that will end their season and help us next week

[beelzebub 22,225]

It's now a game of 'blink' 

[Megatron 834]

It took me a few weeks but instead of looking at the St Kilda game as a chance blown, I’m looking at it as a blessing in disguise.

We lost our way defensively for a couple of weeks there and that St Kilda game has got the players and coaches re-aligning what is needed defensively. 

We played dominate football against freo and if not for our kicking should’ve been a 100 point victory. The bulldogs have been good in games over the last few weeks and the way we put them away in that 3rd term, was the best footy we’ve played all year. 

Im quietly confident about our chances this weekend. They would’ve set there sights on this game a couple of weeks ago.

[Wiseblood 24,636]

43 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Here is the latest view of the run home for the top 10 teams. 

This week I have included Lions as one of the teams opponents will need to show extra respect.  The Port loss to Freo shows there are absolutely no gimmies.

I reckon we can make the top 4!!  Yes the pressure is on us to win enough games but there is equal pressure on Magpies and Swans who also have a nasty draw.  They each might easily drop 3 or 4 of the last 6.   

 

I like the positivity, LH!  I think, with our percentage the way it is, that we can definitely finish inside the Top 4 as none of our remaining games scare me (the Eagles in Perth will be our toughest assignment IMO).

This round of games proves that anything can happen in this league, and teams like the Dockers and Lions are more than capable of causing an upset or two.  I also like the fact that we have a tough run home as we can really test our mettle against some quality opposition leading into September.

[jackaub 1,402]

14 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

I like the positivity, LH!  I think, with our percentage the way it is, that we can definitely finish inside the Top 4 as none of our remaining games scare me (the Eagles in Perth will be our toughest assignment IMO).

This round of games proves that anything can happen in this league, and teams like the Dockers and Lions are more than capable of causing an upset or two.  I also like the fact that we have a tough run home as we can really test our mettle against some quality opposition leading into September.

Totally agree Wise

The weekend proved a lot 

I have  the following:

Tigs   Win 4     Total 16           First

Eagles  Win 3  Total 15           2nd

CW    Win 2     Total 13            6th

Syd    Win 3   Total   14          5th

Power  Win 3  Total 14          4th

Dees  Win 3  Total 14              3rd

Giants  Win  3   Total 12.5      8th

Cats  Win 4  Total  13            7th

 

More and More optimistic

 

[drdrake 3,035]

Pressure is on the players our next 5 games are on Channel 7, I reckon r23 will be on Channel 7 as well.  It is time to perform when it really counts.  1998 was the best run home I've seen our club play, I think we went 5 straight leading into the finals playing what I still think is the most exciting football I have seen this club play.  Hoping this year is the same

[Binmans PA 25,897]

25 minutes ago, jackaub said:

Totally agree Wise

The weekend proved a lot 

I have  the following:

Tigs   Win 4     Total 16           First

Eagles  Win 3  Total 15           2nd

CW    Win 2     Total 13            6th

Syd    Win 3   Total   14          5th

Power  Win 3  Total 14          4th

Dees  Win 3  Total 14              3rd

Giants  Win  3   Total 12.5      8th

Cats  Win 4  Total  13            7th

 

More and More optimistic

 

Not sure how we finish above the Power if we both win 3 games from here on out. They are already a game ahead of us.

[SFebes 4,692]

1 minute ago, A F said:

Not sure how we finish above the Power if we both win 3 games from here on out. They are already a game ahead of us.

He did say he was optimistic!

[sisso 2,383]

We can do it! Sending positive vibes to the club and players now!!

 

[What 18,810]

The Lions will end the Crows season this coming weekend.

[Graeme Yeats' Mullet 6,274]

5 hours ago, jackaub said:

Totally agree Wise

The weekend proved a lot 

I have  the following:

Tigs   Win 4     Total 16           First

Eagles  Win 3  Total 15           2nd

CW    Win 2     Total 13            6th

Syd    Win 3   Total   14          5th

Power  Win 3  Total 14          4th

Dees  Win 3  Total 14              3rd

Giants  Win  3   Total 12.5      8th

Cats  Win 4  Total  13            7th

 

More and More optimistic

 

We'd need to win 4 from here to finish on 14

[Graeme Yeats' Mullet 6,274]

The 3 games that matter most are:

Gee / Syd / GWS

We're competing for the same spots and need to win 2 of these - GWS particularly crucial given their draw nullifying our %

The remaining games:

Adel / GCS / WCE

Not competing for spots but still need 2 wins here

My ladder predictor has us on 14 wins, with losses to GEE and WCE but only in 5th, a game and % ahead of 9th

There'll be teams on 13 wins that miss out this year... 

[highroller 112]

I reckon if we can just pull out the win this weekend we are pretty much home - if you bank the suns as a win that would be 12W and im sure we can win one of the others..it also puts Geelong a long way back as well. 13 and our percentage will definitely get us in but yeah lose this weekend and its going to be the usual stress fest that we are used to dealing with

[deebug 1,754]

9 hours ago, beelzebub said:

All we need to do is channel the Dees of '87 

( Except that bit with #11 ??)

speaking of 87, does any body know where John Northey is? Would love to welcome him back to the club. 

Loved him as our coach , done our club proud.

[brendan 3,380]

13 minutes ago, deebug said:

speaking of 87, does any body know where John Northey is? Would love to welcome him back to the club. 

Loved him as our coach , done our club proud.

He would be kicking around in Ballarat he was coaching lake wendouree couple years back but is now director of coaching for Lara in the Geelong league 

[Jaded No More 57,674]

23 hours ago, Nasher said:

No matter what happens from here on, if anyone says "we don't deserve to play finals" as if implying we deserve it any less than Geelong, Port, Hawthorn or any of those other clubs around our mark, I'll know they're full of it.  Our game against St Kilda has nothing on what Port just served up against Freo.

This year's flag is anyone's at this point. 

To be fair Port lost Grey and Ryder early. If we lost Gawn and Oliver early in a game we would lose too. 

[Jaded No More 57,674]

One thing is certain, this year we won’t miss finals due to %

[titan_uranus 22,220]

1 minute ago, Jaded said:

To be fair Port lost Grey and Ryder early. If we lost Gawn and Oliver early in a game we would lose too. 

They lost Gray just before half time when they were already losing. Not sure how much difference they would have made, to be honest.

Meanwhile West Coast lost Naitanui in the second quarter and beat Collingwood by six goals.

Fremantle are so bad that Port Adelaide ought to have found a way to get it done.

[Jaded No More 57,674]

Just now, titan_uranus said:

They lost Gray just before half time when they were already losing. Not sure how much difference they would have made, to be honest.

Meanwhile West Coast lost Naitanui in the second quarter and beat Collingwood by six goals.

Fremantle are so bad that Port Adelaide ought to have found a way to get it done.

Probably. But to be 2 down on rotation playing away from home is a big ask. 

Port are shaky. In fact only Richmond and GWS really strike me as threats for the flag. Especially now that West Coast have lost their ruckman. If GWS get their list healthy going into finals, I reckon they’ll give it a shake. They scare me. The talent on their list is sickening. I hate them and I hate the AFL for creating them. 

[Willmoy1947 3,762]

2 minutes ago, Jaded said:

To be fair Port lost Grey and Ryder early. If we lost Gawn and Oliver early in a game we would lose too. 

This has been crossing my mind too, but i'm sort of feeling it might not be that bad provided we have three tall forwards in form and Brayshaw firing..........

[What 18,810]

7 minutes ago, Jaded said:

One thing is certain, this year we won’t miss finals due to %

I can just see it now - we miss the finals with the highest % to ever miss... and Essendon take our spot.

If you thought Round 23 was bad last season, you aint seen nothin yet!