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Petraccattack

Run home to Finals - 2018

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Well we choked vs decent opposition the last two games, and now we go back to playing some teams out of the 8.

vs St.Kilda at the MCG

vs Fremantle in Darwin

vs Western Bulldogs at the MCG

 

Must win all three.  If we drop one of these games we will find it very hard to make the finals with a very tough run home.

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" they ' said round 23 last year " burnt in the guts "

God help us !

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Beating those 3 sides isn't going to prove much other than holding firm in the 8.

We are the new flat track bullies, we beat up on the poor teams but can't get the job done against good competition.

I'm sorry to say it but this side cannot win a flag this season. Unlike the dogs of 16, and tigers of 17 we have not been able to win games against good opposition. Until we can do that, we are just flat track bullies. 

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Even if we do win, I honestly think we miss finals by % again.

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2 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Even if we do win, I honestly think we miss finals by % again.

I speculated on that 4 weeks ago Gorgon 12 wins is all I can see we had to win pA and CW to really figure

I have learnt that you just cannot trust the demons in any game 

but I am now used to it i have zero expectations now sad but make it easier to support them

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5 minutes ago, Adzman said:

Beating those 3 sides isn't going to prove much other than holding firm in the 8.

We are the new flat track bullies, we beat up on the poor teams but can't get the job done against good competition.

I'm sorry to say it but this side cannot win a flag this season. Unlike the dogs of 16, and tigers of 17 we have not been able to win games against good opposition. Until we can do that, we are just flat track bullies. 

The wrist slashing is amazing and unfortunately predictable on Demonlogy.

Lost Lever = massive team balance issues. Our hardness yesterday especially the first Qtr I have not seen in a MFC team for long time if not ever. Viney getting back to his best, Melksham working through being tagged, Tyson in didn’t work so let’s now try Garlett in? Other opportunities?

 Port will not have so many things fall there way at the MCG.

 

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2 minutes ago, Lord Ivanhoe said:

The wrist slashing is amazing and unfortunately predictable on Demonlogy.

Lost Lever = massive team balance issues. Our hardness yesterday especially the first Qtr I have not seen in a MFC team for long time if not ever. Viney getting back to his best, Melksham working through being tagged, Tyson in didn’t work so let’s now try Garlett in? Other opportunities?

 Port will not have so many things fall there way at the MCG.

 

No wrist slashing here, it's called a dose of reality. My comments are fair. We haven't beaten anyone, and until we do we are not contenders.

Port aren't contenders either, but I'm not talking about them Lord.

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Even if we do win, I honestly think we miss finals by % again.

That would be a monumental disaster. Would make last seasons Round 23 look like small potatoes

If we won the next 3 we would be 11-5 with a  % over 130. 

Only the Demons could miss the finals from there.   Assuming we win the next 3 and are in a great position, we then have Geelong at Geelong.  Thats the one we want. We need a scalp.

Edited by Petraccattack
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14 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

That would be a monumental disaster. Would make last seasons Round 23 look like small potatoes

If we won the next 3 we would be 11-5 with a  % over 130. 

Only the Demons could miss the finals from there.   Assuming we win the next 3 and are in a great position, we then have Geelong at Geelong.  Thats the one we want. We need a scalp.

Sadly we shouldn't assume anything, we know better than that.  Each of the next 3 games is it's own challenge for this side. I'm not looking at 11-5 yet, just 9-5 to start

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14 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

That would be a monumental disaster. Would make last seasons Round 23 look like small potatoes

If we won the next 3 we would be 11-5 with a  % over 130. 

Only the Demons could miss the finals from there.   Assuming we win the next 3 and are in a great position, we then have Geelong at Geelong.  Thats the one we want. We need a scalp.

Joel Selwood was at our business last week. He was disappointingly approachable, friendly and polite. Naturally I asked him about Melbourne. He said we had improved but still had a long way to go. Fair call.

If however we could beat Geelong on their home turf I reckon that would give the team the confidence and belief to set us up for finals. Obviously we need to get to this game relatively unscathed first but, you are right Petrac, it would be a huge scalp. 

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Winning all 3 is essentially necessary to make finals. It won’t change the perception that we’re a pretender, we just need the wins.

But if we can win all three, we still have three chances to beat a better side (Geelong, WC, Sydney). 

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12 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Winning all 3 is essentially necessary to make finals. It won’t change the perception that we’re a pretender, we just need the wins.

But if we can win all three, we still have three chances to beat a better side (Geelong, WC, Sydney). 

Adel and Gws will be interesting . If we get job done on 4 bottom sides, then those 2 games are big.idstill think hawks, gws or kangas will lose some unexpected games and we will do enough without beating wcesydgeel. Best one of them and top 4 or 5/6 is still possible

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next 3 matches have come at best possible time to get momentum again and give us a 2nd chance to springboard off it with a more gelling 22 to take on the good teams 

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We will win 14. The next three are absolute musts.

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Assuming we can win next three, my view of it is that we are a chance to lose the last three games of the year and Geelong down there.....so need to win two of the remaining games.....just to get to 13

Absolute must to win the next three.....

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Posted (edited)

I thought it best to start a central thread to discuss finals 2018, as a lot of this discussion is being lost in weekly game day/post match threads.

The last two matches have put a significant dent in our campaign for finals. The Collingwood game was a write-off, but the Port game last night was a definite opportunity missed. We absolutely dominated that game and Port stole an undeserved victory. I'm absolutely f*cking fuming we lost, but what's done is done and we now have to look forward.

We currently sit 5th on the ladder with a ledger of 8-5. We're lumped in with a number of teams fighting for a spot. Usually 12-13 wins is all that's required to make finals. This year however a higher number of teams have racked up wins than usual, and 14 wins will be required to guarantee a finals place. Barring an insane run of form, top 4 is now gone. What we do have in our favour at present is our percentage relative to competing teams around the mark.

Our run home presents some challenges now. We play Saints, Freo, Dogs and Suns. That's 4 wins we should bank. That takes us to 12 wins, meaning to hold a spot in the 8 and play finals we'll need to win 2 more matches. The other matches are:
Geelong in Geelong
Adelaide in Adelaide
Sydney at the MCG
Eagles in Perth
GWS at the MCG

So the question is, which of these 2 matches are we going to win? 
Personally I think we'll account for GWS at the MCG, but I struggle to see us winning any of the others based on form. The Crows in Adelaide looks to be our best chance, but who knows if their form will turn around before then as they get some key players back. Obviously a lot can change over this time, but what are everyones thoughts? Will we still make finals? How much have we improved? Have we actually improved? How do you you our season playing out?

Note: This thread is not intended to be a b*tch session, it's to have genuine discussion on the remainder of our season as we strive to play finals for the first time in over a decade.

Edited by Lord Travis
error
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4 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

I thought it best to start a central thread to discuss finals 2018, as a lot of this discussion is being lost in weekly game day/post match threads.

The last two matches have put a significant dent in our campaign for finals. The Collingwood game was a write-off, but the Port game last night was a definite opportunity missed. We absolutely dominated that game and Port stole an undeserved victory. I'm absolutely f*cking fuming we lost, but what's done is done and we now have to look forward.

We currently sit 5th on the ladder with a ledger of 8-5. We're lumped in with a number of teams fighting for a spot. Usually 12-13 wins is all that's required to make finals. This year however a higher number of teams have racked up wins than usual, and 14 wins will be required to guarantee a finals place. Barring an insane run of form, top 4 is now gone. What we do have in our favour at present is our percentage relative to competing teams around the mark.

Our run home presents some challenges now. We play Saints, Freo, Dogs and Suns. That's 4 wins we should bank. That takes us to 12 wins, meaning to hold a spot in the 8 and play finals we'll need to win 2 more matches. The other matches are:
Geelong in Geelong
Sydney at the MCG
Eagles in Perth
GWS at the MCG

So the question is, which of these 2 matches are we going to win? 
Personally I think we'll account for GWS at the MCG, but I struggle to see us winning any of the others based on form. Obviously a lot can change over this time, but what are everyones thoughts? Will we still make finals? How much have we improved? Have we actually improved? How do you you our season playing out?

Note: This thread is not intended to be a b*tch session, it's to have genuine discussion on the remainder of our season as we strive to play finals for the first time in over a decade.

FWIT I thought I would add that after last night, and the Inside 50's, I am confident the forward issues can be fixed and we have huge upcoming % builders for next 3 weeks.  I think this will be important also as well as point obviously.

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Agree. Not we NEED to win a few upset games in the last 5-6. 

At 8-3, our season was setup for 15/7. That’s 4th/5th.  Now 13/9 is the most realistic view which is a 7-9th position finish is the balanced view. 

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2 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

In round 19 we play the crows....

Oops, missed that one. Adelaide in Adelaide may be our best bet to lock away the win needed to make the 8.

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4 hours ago, Adzman said:

Beating those 3 sides isn't going to prove much other than holding firm in the 8.

We are the new flat track bullies, we beat up on the poor teams but can't get the job done against good competition.

I'm sorry to say it but this side cannot win a flag this season. Unlike the dogs of 16, and tigers of 17 we have not been able to win games against good opposition. Until we can do that, we are just flat track bullies. 

Flat track bullies is a cheap and lazy cliche by media and posters on here..  The evidence in 2017 was that This team by and large beat Adelaide in Adelaide last year and eagles in Perth . Not much has changed team wise except for Hogan being available and Gawn in better form since then in terms of team membership and mindset and the team has arguably improved.

Last night is being hailed as the great Friday night game of the year and Melbourne lost no respect  ( so says Gerard Whately)

had the Cats beaten in Rd 1 and flogged last year's Grand finalist only a few weeks ago.

The game is more complex than a slogan.

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9 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

FWIT I thought I would add that after last night, and the Inside 50's, I am confident the forward issues can be fixed and we have huge upcoming % builders for next 3 weeks.  I think this will be important also as well as point obviously.

The blind, long, high bombs into the Forward line have been an issue since Round 1 where it, and the selection of Maynard and Wagner, cost us another match we should have won.

It is not easily fixed because it is not the forwards at fault, it's our crash and bash one dimensional, unbalanced midfield that have no class or ability to accelerate out of a stoppage, lower their eyes and spot up a well-weighted short pass.

We desperately need to add a Shaun Higgins-type free agent and trade for a Devon Smith-type as well. Hopefully Gaff and Murphy might be the Free Agents this year, and maybe they can trade for a Darcy Parish or similar.

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15 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

FWIT I thought I would add that after last night, and the Inside 50's, I am confident the forward issues can be fixed and we have huge upcoming % builders for next 3 weeks.  I think this will be important also as well as point obviously.

Yeah I tend to agree, I`m actually more confident of playing finals after this loss than before the game!

I think 5 more wins will be enough and I`d expect our % this year to be around the 115 - 125%, so I reckon we will be playing finals.

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