Key Defensive Pillars

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

1 hour ago, A F said:

I think you've shifted the goal posts here, Steve, with a bit of revisionism.

You made it very clear that you felt Oscar wouldn't make it. He has and will.

I said I had doubts. (Based on some of his performances). 

Feel free to quote me though. I'm sure I made some exaggerated gameday remarks. 

[DeeSpencer 23,061]

3 hours ago, stevethemanjordan said:

I didn't want Oscar playing in our back line last year. And I stand by my point, being that if we were a club that had key position backline depth and experience last year, he would have been developing at VFL level given his level of output. In my view, that's the reality of the situation. We risked not bringing in anyone in the hope that he'd develop.

Yeh, maybe I was on his case a lot throughout last season and some posters found it offensive, repetitive and boring. But it's a football forum and I'm not here to be polite, toe the company line or make friends at every opportunity. There are plenty of those type of posters here.

It can be argued that we'd have been better off bringing in a mature age key defender last year which would not only have limited opposition scoring opportunities and provided confidence in our other defenxers, but would have allowed Oscar to develop at VFL. (Something I've said 90,000 times). I'm not the only one that holds this view. Perhaps we could have made the finals with a change like that. Who knows? 

What I couldn't foresee and was clearly wrong about is where Oscar's improvement was going to come from. I'd said that I couldn't see a single outstanding trait that he possessesed last year. This year, we've at least seen that he does possess the ability to take strong intercept marks. Doing it on a few occasions in games. I understand part of being a successful scout is about being able to identify these things. Whether or not my views on Oscar diminish my ability to scout is questionable. Last year he was not performing, they're the facts. I'm not at the club and don't see him every day, so obviously my insight is hindered somewhat. 

He is progressing and showing good signs, let's agree on that. 

 

I think our plan last year was Tommy Mc - CHB, with Oscar and Frost competing for FB. 

Garland was mature depth - he did play a very good practice game before injury. Keilty a developing option. Dunn was traded, probably with the knowledge he was going to improve with a new club but we had younger options to play and Garland contracted who we couldn't move on. 

Tom started well before being required forward/ruck and that left both Frost and Oscar carrying the load. They played pretty well, both were great against Adelaide in Adelaide, Oscar was nearly best on against the Dogs at Etihad. They fell away towards the end of the year and part of that was on them and part was because our midfield defensive work also disappeared with the Viney injury. I'd say Oscar never fell away to the levels that Frost did.

I've been as negative as you on Oscar at times. It was his lack of physicality combined with only average speed that concerned me. But if you're talking up attributes then his marking and kicking have always shown promise, and he's fit and should only get stronger and translate gym strength to footy strength. But more than anything it's probably his coachability that inspires the most faith. In 2016 when experienced defenders couldn't get their heads around zone defending Oscar was noticeably getting to the positions the coaches wanted and I believe that's why he was getting games. Tom Lonergan was one of the best 5 or so key defenders for at least 5 years if not more and he didn't have a standout attribute. Part of scouting is sometimes just trusting the opinion of good coaches right?

[binman 37,807]

On 5/21/2018 at 2:55 PM, stevethemanjordan said:

@binman

Quite a long-winded post.

I think the main difference of opinion comes from an emotional standpoint. It sounds like you are quite offended with some of my commentary which is why you can't seem to let this go. That's okay, but I'm not going to apologise for my frustration at some of Oscar's performances last year.

I've mentioned it so many times before, but I wanted the club to bring in a mature-aged player to play key position and allow Oscar to develop at VFL level. They decided not to and I'm of the opinion that he was thrown to the wolves last year and was clearly not ready. I'm not alone with that view and I'm also not the only one who thought our key defensive stocks were ordinary last year. We leaked many goals with Oscar and Frost both contributing to it.

You disagree with that, that's fine. 

His improvement and growth this year has been enormous simply because of the low base he was coming from. 

What I've said is that I'm happy to admit is that I was wrong about some attributes that I simply didn't see him possessing. This year, he's actually had games where he has won contests. Some of those contests coming from contested intercept marks. The Hawthorn game comes to mind as one. 

Against Carlton, he wasn't as strong as he's been. Hopefully he keeps up his consistency in performance. 

I'm not going to respond after this, so I suggest you pm me if you're still unhappy. 

Ironically long post STMJ given your long winded quip about my quoted post.

Leaving that aside, to clarify you have got the wrong end of the stick. Completely. Our difference of opinion has nothing to do with an emotional standpoint. It has everything to do with a fundamental disagreement about your assessment of Oscar's ability. 

Yes i dislike it when footy fans are over the top in their criticism of players in the team they support.  I have an equal dislike of opinions and arguments that are illogical and not supported by the available evidence or fact. 

I have no issue with you STMJ on personal level and am certainly not personally offended by your 'commentary' on Oscar. Since your commentary on Oscar began all i have ever done is rebut your arguments. And i think largely successfully so. 

It seems to me you often state your opinions about Oscar as fact, - or at the least confuse opinion and fact, something that is all too common these days i'm afraid. There are any number of examples - your posts about Oscar are littered with them. But as an example from your post quoted above:

'His improvement and growth this year has been enormous simply because of the low base he was coming from' 

It is your opinion that he is coming of a low base. It is not a fact. And i disagree he is coming off a low base. My opinion is he had a really solid year last, his ability was evident and i expected him to go up a level in 2018. You are surprised he is playing so well this year and i'm not. 

So i'm happy to accept that your opinion is that he was coming from a low base. But i reserve the right to debate that opinion.

With debates my preference is that facts are used to support arguments.  And there is ample objective evidence that your opinions of Oscar's ability and level last year is off the mark.

One such piece of evidence is the fact that, much to your frustration, at the end of 2016 they elected not to target a mature KPD to mitigate against the risk of Oscar not being good enough. Again at the end of 2017 they chose not to chase a  mature KPD - despite  planning to play his brother up forward in 2018. These, critical,  recruiting decisions were made by a club with full time professionals in the recruiting and football departments.

In 2017 they would have been hoping to make finals. In 2018 they would have realistically been targeting a top 4 spot. In that context making the correct call on the KPD position is super important and not one they are likely to take a risk with, for example not recruiting a solid back up player if they were not 100% confident they had a laity player who could do the job.

Given all this it is logical to assume the club decided Oscar was good enough to be a KPD capable of performing at the required level and in 2018 be their key big defender (allowing them to implement their critical strategy of moving Tmac forward). And that there was no little risk of him not excelling. Hence not recruiting a mature KPD as you would have had them do.

Another fact is that generally a young players development is relatively linear. Though a huge improvement can happen in one pre season it is unusual and even in that scenario the talent is usually evident (or else why would they have been recruited in the fist instance). And in such a scenario it would be very unusual for a young player to have been played most of the previous season in the seniors (history suggests players who are not ready do not play regular senior footy - particularly in teams pushing for finals).   

More common is that a player builds year on year as they gain experience, fitness, strength etc and improve in increments. I would argue that the latter scenario reflects Oscar's progression and you obviously would not. But the fact remains the latter scenario is more likely to reflect Oscar's development, simply because it is the usual way young AFL players progress. 

So your opinion is he came off a low base. Mine is that he didn't. I concede i could be wrong. And you could be right. But the facts support my opinion not yours so logic suggest i am more likely to be correct than you are. 

I'm happy for you not to respond to this post STMJ, in fact i didn't ask you to respond the previous one and if i recall correctly about the the only time i have ever done so was to follow up your promise last year of going through a particular game of Oscar's involvement that was supposed to offer proof of how poorly he played.  Something you never did. By the by if you want to follow through on that commitment AFL stats pro has video of the entire 2017 season.  

And i have no intention to PM you. Why would i? I'm not unhappy, insulted or interested in engaging in a private conversation. You post opinions on a public football forum and if i feel like responding i do so. Simples. And i will continue to do so.

And in doing so i will continue to use fact as the basis of my arguments rebutting yours. 

Edited May 23, 2018 by binman

[ManDee 7,073]

One could argue that statistically Oscar was better last year.

Player Statistics Comparison

Oscar McDonald Name Oscar McDonald Melbourne Demons Team Melbourne Demons Defender Position Defender 46 Career Games 46 North Ballarat Rebels Origin North Ballarat Rebels March 18, 1996 Date of Birth March 18, 1996 Turned 21 in 2017 Age 22yr 2mth 196cm Height 196cm 100kg Weight 100kg 2014 National Draft Last Drafted In 2014 National Draft Round 3, Pick #53 Last Draft Position Round 3, Pick #53 Melbourne Demons Last Drafted By Melbourne Demons 2017 Stats for Season 2018 20 Games 9 9.6 Kicks Per Game 7.7 5.8 Handballs Per Game 3.7 15.4 Disposals Per Game 11.3 5.4 Marks Per Game 3.9 0 Goals Per Game 0 0 Behinds Per Game 0 1.6 Tackles Per Game 0.7 0 Hitouts Per Game 0 0.9 Inside 50s Per Game 0.4 0 Goal Assists Per Game 0 0.7 Frees For Per Game 0.1 0.8 Frees Against Per Game 1.0 5.0 Contested Possessions Per Game 4.2 10.3 Uncontested Possessions Per Game 7.1 12.2 Effective Disposals Per Game 8.9 79.2% Disposal Efficiency % Per Game 78.8% 2.0 Clangers Per Game 2.4 0.5 Contested Marks Per Game 1.0 0 Marks Inside 50 Per Game 0 0.4 Clearances Per Game 0 2.7 Rebound 50s Per Game 3.3 8.0 One Percenters Per Game 6.8 0 Bounces Per Game 0 92.2 Time On Ground % Per Game 97.7 0.1 Centre Clearances Per Game 0 0.3 Stoppage Clearances Per Game 0 1.8 Score Involvements Per Game 1.6 231.1 Metres Gained Per Game 182.1 2.6 Turnovers Per Game 2.1 6.5 Intercepts Per Game 5.2 0 Tackles Inside 50 Per Game 0 61.2 AFL Fantasy Score Per Game 41.8 69.8 Supercoach Score Per Game 56.7

[Dante 2,562]

3 hours ago, ManDee said:

One could argue that statistically Oscar was better last year.

Player Statistics Comparison

Oscar McDonald Name Oscar McDonald Melbourne Demons Team Melbourne Demons Defender Position Defender 46 Career Games 46 North Ballarat Rebels Origin North Ballarat Rebels March 18, 1996 Date of Birth March 18, 1996 Turned 21 in 2017 Age 22yr 2mth 196cm Height 196cm 100kg Weight 100kg 2014 National Draft Last Drafted In 2014 National Draft Round 3, Pick #53 Last Draft Position Round 3, Pick #53 Melbourne Demons Last Drafted By Melbourne Demons 2017 Stats for Season 2018 20 Games 9 9.6 Kicks Per Game 7.7 5.8 Handballs Per Game 3.7 15.4 Disposals Per Game 11.3 5.4 Marks Per Game 3.9 0 Goals Per Game 0 0 Behinds Per Game 0 1.6 Tackles Per Game 0.7 0 Hitouts Per Game 0 0.9 Inside 50s Per Game 0.4 0 Goal Assists Per Game 0 0.7 Frees For Per Game 0.1 0.8 Frees Against Per Game 1.0 5.0 Contested Possessions Per Game 4.2 10.3 Uncontested Possessions Per Game 7.1 12.2 Effective Disposals Per Game 8.9 79.2% Disposal Efficiency % Per Game 78.8% 2.0 Clangers Per Game 2.4 0.5 Contested Marks Per Game 1.0 0 Marks Inside 50 Per Game 0 0.4 Clearances Per Game 0 2.7 Rebound 50s Per Game 3.3 8.0 One Percenters Per Game 6.8 0 Bounces Per Game 0 92.2 Time On Ground % Per Game 97.7 0.1 Centre Clearances Per Game 0 0.3 Stoppage Clearances Per Game 0 1.8 Score Involvements Per Game 1.6 231.1 Metres Gained Per Game 182.1 2.6 Turnovers Per Game 2.1 6.5 Intercepts Per Game 5.2 0 Tackles Inside 50 Per Game 0 61.2 AFL Fantasy Score Per Game 41.8 69.8 Supercoach Score Per Game 56.7

They could, and they could also argue that the ball was in our defensive area a lot more last year, so he had the opportunity to be more involved.

I'm not having a go at you, just putting forward another view.

Personally I've always been of the view he should have been played last year and I would imagine we were aware that we were getting Jake Lever and wanted Oscar to get experience so they could fit together right from the start.

 

[ManDee 7,073]

2 hours ago, Dante said:

They could, and they could also argue that the ball was in our defensive area a lot more last year, so he had the opportunity to be more involved.

I'm not having a go at you, just putting forward another view.

Personally I've always been of the view he should have been played last year and I would imagine we were aware that we were getting Jake Lever and wanted Oscar to get experience so they could fit together right from the start.

 

Inferno, I am a fan of metres gained, disposal efficiency & score involvements. Last year Oscar was better. But watching the games I think he is better this year. Don't rely on stats alone. ?