Ladder predictor

[Undeeterred 2,816]

On 5/9/2018 at 10:06 AM, beelzebub said:

I ran the autotip. Unfortunately it had us at 11th.

All comes down to algorithms used i appreciate. But they are essentially unbiased. 

I think this year will have many ( too many ) similarities to last. % will be crucial and we've gifted so much already. 

I have us at best 7th...worst 11th. 

Gotta bring near the A team all games playing the best of A game ( and B variants ) for 4 qtrs...every game. A team doing this deserves September. Up to us...well..up to Goody/&Co and the lads.

Our lapses kill us...if we can't play our game...we lose.

Much work still required.

Go Dees

We are about 20-30% ahead of the teams we are likely to be competing with for one of the last couple of spots. Will be irrelevant, if we have enough wins we have enough wins.

[deelete my account 1,194]

1.West Coast 19 3 0 130.6%
2. Richmond 18 4 0 140.0%
3. Sydney 17 5 0 124.5%
4. Geelong 16 6 0 132.5%
5. Collingwood 16 6 0 116.7%
6. Melbourne 15 7 0 129.3%
7. Port Adelaide 15 7 0 122.9%
8. North Melbourne 14 8 0 123.8%
9. Hawthorn 14 8 0 109.5%
10. GWS 11 10 1 107.2%
11. Adelaide 9 13 0 96.5% 

I'm being overly optimistic but I think we can win against Port, Adelaide & GWS, and win the other expected games. We may drop one and go 6/4 and end up 8th or 9th. Match vs Port is crucial. Geel, WCE & Sydney should be the only games we're just not good enough to win, and even if we snag one, cant possibly add a W in terms of ladder probability. If GWS turn it on, this ladder will look a little different. should probably give it another go.

Edited June 12, 2018 by John Demonic

[jackaub 1,402]

10 hours ago, John Demonic said:

1.West Coast 19 3 0 130.6%
2. Richmond 18 4 0 140.0%
3. Sydney 17 5 0 124.5%
4. Geelong 16 6 0 132.5%
5. Collingwood 16 6 0 116.7%
6. Melbourne 15 7 0 129.3%
7. Port Adelaide 15 7 0 122.9%
8. North Melbourne 14 8 0 123.8%
9. Hawthorn 14 8 0 109.5%
10. GWS 11 10 1 107.2%
11. Adelaide 9 13 0 96.5% 

I'm being overly optimistic but I think we can win against Port, Adelaide & GWS, and win the other expected games. We may drop one and go 6/4 and end up 8th or 9th. Match vs Port is crucial. Geel, WCE & Sydney should be the only games we're just not good enough to win, and even if we snag one, cant possibly add a W in terms of ladder probability. If GWS turn it on, this ladder will look a little different. should probably give it another go.

No John we just lost the crucial match 

V Collingwood was a must win if we wanted to figure in September

Even more disappointing we lost 10% in the bargain

Won't get a better chance

15/7 to me is wildly optimistic 13/9  miss out on percentage

Losses PA and GWS

[buck_nekkid 5,457]

Early on, most had the Adelaide game as a loss.  We smashed them.  Much water to pass under bridge, Grasshopper.  Some teams will run hot, others will drop their bundle.

the pass/fail is finals this year.  6th or above is a gold star from teacher.  We turn at 8/4 with a good percentage.  Let’s hope there are 6 more in the tank from here.

 

[jackaub 1,402]

31 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

Early on, most had the Adelaide game as a loss.  We smashed them.  Much water to pass under bridge, Grasshopper.  Some teams will run hot, others will drop their bundle.

the pass/fail is finals this year.  6th or above is a gold star from teacher.  We turn at 8/4 with a good percentage.  Let’s hope there are 6 more in the tank from here.

 

PA   had as win now loss   8/5

SK   JUST A WIN     9/5

Freo  loss      9/6

WB        loss    9/7

GEEL         JUST A WIN   10/7

ADEL  WIN       11/7

SUNS   JUST A WIN     12/7

SWAN        LOSS        12/8

WC        LOSS         12/9

GWS      WIN      13/9

Also hard to see big % games in our wins  so maybe  only percentage gets us in

Still optimistic though

[rpfc 27,378]

1 hour ago, jackaub said:

PA   had as win now loss   8/5

SK   JUST A WIN     9/5

Freo  loss      9/6

WB        loss    9/7

GEEL         JUST A WIN   10/7

ADEL  WIN       11/7

SUNS   JUST A WIN     12/7

SWAN        LOSS        12/8

WC        LOSS         12/9

GWS      WIN      13/9

Also hard to see big % games in our wins  so maybe  only percentage gets us in

Still optimistic though

Your optimism starts and ends with the Geelong win.

We should beat Freo in Darwin and WB at the G. We should smash GC at the G and StK at the G. We should not fear the Swans on our home deck.

[DubDee 20,320]

A wise man once said unless you get 9/9 in your footy tips each week, the ladder predictor makes as much sense as cows wearing pants

[DeleteUser 638]

18 hours ago, dl4e said:

They are not a bogeyman in finals.

Au contraire

They are most certainly the MFCs bogeyman, at the G, in front of 90k +, based on what we have seen to date.

I know who I'd have money on in a week 1 Elim b/w MFC and CFC @ the G

[dl4e 5,578]

21 minutes ago, timbo said:

Au contraire

They are most certainly the MFCs bogeyman, at the G, in front of 90k +, based on what we have seen to date.

I know who I'd have money on in a week 1 Elim b/w MFC and CFC @ the G

We have played them 23 or 24 times in finals and they have only beaten us 3 times.

[DeleteUser 638]

31 minutes ago, dl4e said:

We have played them 23 or 24 times in finals and they have only beaten us 3 times.

Sure , historical quantitative data would seem to indicate a good probability of an MFC victory in finals.

recent qualitative and qauntitative data against the CFC outside finals, and the same information from similar Big stage MCG games (r23 2017, tigers Hawks 2018), does not inspire such comfidence

that's all I am saying

[deelete my account 1,194]

5 hours ago, jackaub said:

No John we just lost the crucial match 

V Collingwood was a must win if we wanted to figure in September

Even more disappointing we lost 10% in the bargain

Won't get a better chance

15/7 to me is wildly optimistic 13/9  miss out on percentage

Losses PA and GWS

Going by your ladder, you think two wins over Freo and WB is wildly optimistic to go from 13/7 to 15/7? Those two games are already penciled as far as I and most fans are now concerned based on the last 7 weeks as evidence. It's the Port, Adel & GWS clashes that I think will determine if we make the 8. Geel/WCE/SYD you'd have to have down as losses, but even if we still lose to one of Port/Adel/GWS, we can win one back against the odds like in Geelong or come out and systematically shut down the Sydney game plan at the G (And take out Buddy behind the play)

 

Edited June 13, 2018 by John Demonic

[Deemania since 56 6,118]

On 5/8/2018 at 9:27 PM, WERRIDEE said:

Where are our other 6 loses coming from? With Viney back in we will be unbeaten for the rest of the year mark my words.

My calculations are we should be 2nd.

Love this optimism. Is the rest of the season our 'second chance'? 

[Rogue 585]

17 hours ago, jackaub said:

Still optimistic though

You think we'll lose to Freo in Darwin and WB at the 'G, but think we'll defeat Geelong in Geelong and GWS at the 'G in the final round? Interesting.

Squiggle's auto-predict has us finishing 4th on 16 wins, while I tipped 15 wins for us (5th, behind a couple of teams on percentage). I wouldn't be shocked if some results went the other way and we missed out, though - it'll be an interesting last month of footy.

 

Edited June 13, 2018 by Rogue

[What 18,810]

On 5/9/2018 at 10:06 AM, beelzebub said:

I ran the autotip. Unfortunately it had us at 11th.

 

No way that happened.. you sure you read it correctly?

  I ran it 20 straight times as an experiment and the lowest it had us was 7th. The closest call was making it with a 13-9 record,  percentage clear from 9th place.

I mentioned in another thread that we can make the finals with 13 wins as long as we keep our percentage up over 120. The ladder predictor was in line with that.

But thats just fun and games, who knows what will really happen?

Edited June 13, 2018 by Petraccattack

[DeleteUser 638]

21 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Early on, most had the Adelaide game as a loss.  We smashed them.  Much water to pass under bridge, Grasshopper.  Some teams will run hot, others will drop their bundle.

the pass/fail is finals this year.  6th or above is a gold star from teacher.  We turn at 8/4 with a good percentage.  Let’s hope there are 6 more in the tank from here.

 

That's a good point. If the Alice springs team turns up we can win any game

we beat weagles last year and are arguably (arguably not inarguably) better (?).

[DeleteUser 638]

17 hours ago, John Demonic said:

 and systematically shut down the Sydney game plan at the G (And take out Buddy behind the play)

 

Not sure we have the coaching nous and personnel or preparation tonshut Sydney down (QBW execution and preparation or lack thereof massively worrying )

on buddy, does anyone know what Leigh Matthews is doing that day?

[SFebes 4,692]

This is what the squiggle website are predicting for EOY:

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 3,925]

Carlton and Brisbane get 5 wins???? nahhh

[DeleteUser 638]

1 hour ago, SFebey said:

This is what the squiggle website are predicting for EOY:

Lose to RFC week 1 then play one of Cats, Pies, Port (at MCG presumably) or NM? SHUDDER

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,137]

Fox Footy (FWIW) are a lot more optimistic about our run home and have us down to finish 4th.  They rate our draw as the 13th most difficult.

 

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/latest-afl-run-home-final-ladder-and-finals-series-projections-round-13-2018/news-story/86b0a6a1bf0d53ed16b21352b35f7f4f

 

[Dirts 429]

On 6/13/2018 at 3:29 PM, Deemania since 56 said:

Love this optimism. Is the rest of the season our 'second chance'? 

Honestly no need to panic. We will make the 8 and don’t be surprised to see some big wins. 

I have been critical in the past but think the loss to Collingwood may be a blessing in disguise. I think the young lads will refresh over the break and be ready to create history. A top eight finish is all that is required this year. 

[What 18,810]

1 hour ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Fox Footy (FWIW) are a lot more optimistic about our run home and have us down to finish 4th.  They rate our draw as the 13th most difficult.

 

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/latest-afl-run-home-final-ladder-and-finals-series-projections-round-13-2018/news-story/86b0a6a1bf0d53ed16b21352b35f7f4f

 

They have both Richmond and West Coast finishing 19-3. Not gonna happen.

[titan_uranus 22,208]

1 hour ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Fox Footy (FWIW) are a lot more optimistic about our run home and have us down to finish 4th.  They rate our draw as the 13th most difficult.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/latest-afl-run-home-final-ladder-and-finals-series-projections-round-13-2018/news-story/86b0a6a1bf0d53ed16b21352b35f7f4f

 

Their rating of the runs home isn't too bad, it factors in opponents' percentage, games against the current top 8, and travel. I'm surprised ours is so easy given we still have three interstate trips plus a trip to Geelong.

If we beat Port and do what we ought to do (and so far this year have done) against St Kilda, Fremantle, the Dogs and Gold Coast, we should be OK. But that's only 13 wins. A 14th win would make it a sure thing, which means the above plus probably Adelaide (assuming they continue to be tripe) or GWS at the G.

If we only end up on 13 wins, we're going to need to do better in our losses than we have so far. We can't afford to shed percentage every time we lose, and we're going to lose. I'm confident 13 will get us in provided our percentage holds up.

Round 23 vs GWS at the G could well be a "win and in" for both sides. Let's hope we've secured our spot because I really don't want to have to go through that again (and from 8-3 we shouldn't have to).

[deelete my account 1,194]

7 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Their rating of the runs home isn't too bad, it factors in opponents' percentage, games against the current top 8, and travel. I'm surprised ours is so easy given we still have three interstate trips plus a trip to Geelong.

If we beat Port and do what we ought to do (and so far this year have done) against St Kilda, Fremantle, the Dogs and Gold Coast, we should be OK. But that's only 13 wins. A 14th win would make it a sure thing, which means the above plus probably Adelaide (assuming they continue to be tripe) or GWS at the G.

If we only end up on 13 wins, we're going to need to do better in our losses than we have so far. We can't afford to shed percentage every time we lose, and we're going to lose. I'm confident 13 will get us in provided our percentage holds up.

Round 23 vs GWS at the G could well be a "win and in" for both sides. Let's hope we've secured our spot because I really don't want to have to go through that again (and from 8-3 we shouldn't have to).

i'm hoping that we can snag a 'season defining win' against the odds v WCE/SYD/GEEL like we have done in the last few years ( v Geelong 15', v Hawthorn 16', v Adel/WCe 17') - At least that will offset any potential hiccup against Adel or GWS, and if none, then we're back in top 4 contention. All the other games should be in the bag for the quality of footy we've produced so far providing we cover for Lever.

Edited June 17, 2018 by John Demonic

[What 18,810]

8 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Their rating of the runs home isn't too bad, it factors in opponents' percentage, games against the current top 8, and travel. I'm surprised ours is so easy given we still have three interstate trips plus a trip to Geelong.

If we beat Port and do what we ought to do (and so far this year have done) against St Kilda, Fremantle, the Dogs and Gold Coast, we should be OK. But that's only 13 wins. A 14th win would make it a sure thing, which means the above plus probably Adelaide (assuming they continue to be tripe) or GWS at the G.

If we only end up on 13 wins, we're going to need to do better in our losses than we have so far. We can't afford to shed percentage every time we lose, and we're going to lose. I'm confident 13 will get us in provided our percentage holds up.

Round 23 vs GWS at the G could well be a "win and in" for both sides. Let's hope we've secured our spot because I really don't want to have to go through that again (and from 8-3 we shouldn't have to).

Feeling a lot better about our last 10 games now that Adelaide are garbage.  If we knock Port off this Friday at Adelaide Oval it will be a nice warmup for the Crows game at the same ground.

If we win at least 1 of the 2 Adelaide Oval games we will play finals.