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Skuit

Stats-file 2018

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The home of statistics and discussion thereof.

As of the end of round 3;

Scoring for and against

Demons 1st in points scored.

1st in inside-50s

1st in least opposition inside-50s

Thus 1st in inside-50 differential by a huge margin.

3rd in assists and marks inside-50

Last for rebound-50s and second-last for opponent rebound 50s.

Intensity

2nd in total contested possessions –

1st for contested possession differential and the only team at 3-0 for contested wins.

4th clearances (3rd centre/7th stoppages)

4th for tackles

7th for tackles against (this is a huge improvement on recent years)

Possession for and against

16th marks – but 3rd in least opponent marks per game. Also 9th contested marks.   

1st in least opponent kicks

4th in least opponent disposals

12th for clangers

Summary:

I think for the most part the early statistics are bearing out what we're seeing with our eyes - inefficiency. But perhaps the frustration of this inefficiency is blinding us a fraction to our absolute dominance in a couple of areas, namely the contested battle and sheer volume of ball moving forward. We're also perhaps the one mobile clearance specialist short to really step it up (JV).

The stats are however fairly similar to the early part of last year. But there's some subtle differences re. the nature of disposals for and against. We're kicking more and being kicked and tackled against less    - areas which should help with endurance. We're also (to my surprise)  not getting completely completely hammered in the marking and are a bit cleaner in our disposal. Basically, we're playing contested footy, but also shutting down space and forcing the opposition to do the same.

Together, it all bodes super-well if we can clean up just a fraction up front or get a smidgen tighter down back - the latter which we should be able to do considering we have three AA-level defenders currently out of form or learning to gel (as well as a potential top-line  rebounder in Hunt), while as to the former we're still fiddling with in the unexpected absence of Tomald.

Lastly, it's just three rounds, and we've played two likely bottom-four teams - but I think we tend to play as well or as poorly despite the opposition and that most of these stats will hold. Add your own obscure statistics or whatever you think are pertinent and let's monitor where we stack up as the season progresses. Go Dees!

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2 hours ago, Skuit said:

The home of statistics and discussion thereof.

 

As of the end of round 3;

 

Scoring for and against

 

Demons 1st in points scored.

 

1st in inside-50s

 

1st in least opposition inside-50s

 

Thus 1st in inside-50 differential by a huge margin.

 

3rd in assists and marks inside-50

 

Last for rebound-50s and second-last for opponent rebound 50s.

 

Intensity

 

2nd in total contested possessions –

 

1st for contested possession differential and the only team at 3-0 for contested wins.

 

4th clearances (3rd centre/7th stoppages)

 

4th for tackles

 

7th for tackles against (this is a huge improvement on recent years)

 

Possession for and against

 

16th marks – but 3rd in least opponent marks per game. Also 9th contested marks.   

 

1st in least opponent kicks

 

4th in least opponent disposals

 

12th for clangers

 

Summary:

I think for the most part the early statistics are bearing out what we're seeing with our eyes - inefficiency. But perhaps the frustration of this inefficiency is blinding us a fraction to our absolute dominance in a couple of areas, namely the contested battle and sheer volume of ball moving forward. We're also perhaps the one mobile clearance specialist short to really step it up (JV).

 

The stats are however fairly similar to the early part of last year. But there's some subtle differences re. the nature of disposals for and against. We're kicking more and being kicked and tackled against less    - areas which should help with endurance. We're also (to my surprise)  not getting completely completely hammered in the marking and are a bit cleaner in our disposal. Basically, we're playing contested footy, but also shutting down space and forcing the opposition to do the same.

 

Together, it all bodes super-well if we can clean up just a fraction up front or get a smidgen tighter down back - the latter which we should be able to do considering we have three AA-level defenders currently out of form or learning to gel (as well as a potential top-line  rebounder in Hunt), while as to the former we're still fiddling with in the unexpected absence of Tomald.

Lastly, it's just three rounds, and we've played two likely bottom-four teams - but I think we tend to play as well or as poorly despite the opposition and that most of these stats will hold. Add your own obscure statistics or whatever you think are pertinent and let's monitor where we stack up as the season progresses. Go Dees!

Really nice analysis for a quantitative perspective - and I hope you're right with the last paragraph and that the 'stats will hold'.

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42 minutes ago, Danelska said:

Really nice analysis for a quantitative perspective - and I hope you're right with the last paragraph and that the 'stats will hold'.

We held our stat-line quite well for a good portion of last year until the injuries began to bite and the midfield figures and then scoring dried up (as a rough and ready figure; we scored above 100 points 7 out of the first 12 matches until we played West Coast. Only once thereafter). I think we'd be pretty short odds to end up top-four for contested and centre clearances this year and so then inside-50s as well - though we have a fairly young midfield brigade still which might fade a fraction.

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Keep it up Skuit. I suspect we all agree that it's probably a bit early to be too proud of these stats, but I'd rather be in the positive than the negative.

Just one question though...for the tackles against stat (which I assume means opponent tackles for), is it better to be 1st or 18th? In other words, is being 7th close to being the third best or the third worst?

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We clean up the clangers and our inefficiency going forward and we will easily play finals. We don’t and it’ll be touch and go. 

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Good summary.

Think this aligns with my previous posts where we are getting the ball in quickly to our fwd line but it is bouncing out fast and transitioning into our defence quickly. 

It all stems from our clearance and contested work where we are winning and getting the ball into our outnumbered fwd line quickly.

Our transition from defence (last for rebound 50s) possibly is down to Hibberd being less effective (or tagged) and guys like Hunt having poor starts to the year. It could also be that the defence is unsettled with new personnel and changes to style. It was a clear negative for us last year, particularly in one on ones and allowing opp'n to score from an i50 entry (we were last in both categories last year..)

Our game style looks more like Dean Bailey but with better talent. I think the plan is a work in progress with our ability to score quickly  being very good but our allowing other teams to score quickly not so good. We also have a better spread of contributors that is harder to negate

Gawn is having a huge effect on our fortunes and with better team efficiency and composure generally we can be a contender.

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4 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Keep it up Skuit. I suspect we all agree that it's probably a bit early to be too proud of these stats, but I'd rather be in the positive than the negative.

Just one question though...for the tackles against stat (which I assume means opponent tackles for), is it better to be 1st or 18th? In other words, is being 7th close to being the third best or the third worst?

This always turns my brain around as well - like a double-negative through connotation. To clarify; we're the seventh-most tackled team. 2016 we were the most tackled team and last year we were on track for one of the top-most. Curious as to what has caused this drop?

Also, I'd love if someone knew where to find the attempted and broken tackle stats to see if there's any variation.

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Also, 9 of possible 12 Quarters won, equal top (i think).

Plus we've won all our last quarters thus far.

There's a bit to be happy about in the numbers thus far, knowing we can improve a lot.

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15 minutes ago, Skuit said:

This always turns my brain around as well - like a double-negative through connotation. To clarify; we're the seventh-most tackled team. 2016 we were the most tackled team and last year we were on track for one of the top-most. Curious as to what has caused this drop?

Also, I'd love if someone knew where to find the attempted and broken tackle stats to see if there's any variation.

I suspect in the past we held on to the ball for too long or did a stupid number of hot potato handballs and allowed other teams to pressure us with tackles. Hence we now move the ball on pretty quickly.

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15 minutes ago, Skuit said:

This always turns my brain around as well - like a double-negative through connotation. To clarify; we're the seventh-most tackled team. 2016 we were the most tackled team and last year we were on track for one of the top-most. Curious as to what has caused this drop?

Also, I'd love if someone knew where to find the attempted and broken tackle stats to see if there's any variation.

Thanks. Thinking about this a bit more, it's a bit hard to know what to make of it.  Are we tackled more because we have the ball more than the opposition (seems like a positive); or are we tackled more because we're too slow to get rid of the ball when we have it (seems like a negative)...or both?

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Exactly, was looking to see if there was a "time in possession" stat that would shed some light.

 

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The key stat I look at really is: quarters won.  We're sitting equal first with 9 wins and 3 losses.  One lose per game.  

As has been said a lot on this site, we go "missing" for a quarter.  While I do agree that we have gone missing, I also feel it's unrealistic for us to win every quarter. 

What we need to do is "limit" that damage in the quarter/s we lose.  

Against Saints in pre season, we let through 8 goals from memory.  
Against Geelong in rd 1, 2nd quarter, we let through 7 goals.  Turned out to be too much.
Against Brisbane, rd 2, we limited the damage of 4 goals to 1 in that 3rd quarter.
Against North, rd 3, 1st quarter, we let through 5 goals.  

Common sense I know, but in the quarters we lose, if we limit it to around a 2-3 goal difference, I'll predict we'll win more than we lose this year.

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Oh @skuit, you are a man/woman after my own heart... love these KPIs you have mentioned.

What is the UPs situation - we are 10th but with 217 a game and that is definitely in the region of diminishing returns, especially considering we get it forward so often.

Really hope we take this aggressiveness to the Hawks and not go back into our shells, they would prefer us in our shells; they want to prepare behind the footy and switch and snap the rubber band. Clarkson is an excellent coach but he has more and more also rans in that team and we need to expose their best players to our best players and I don't think they will cope.

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Skuit said:

We held our stat-line quite well for a good portion of last year until the injuries began to bite and the midfield figures and then scoring dried up (as a rough and ready figure; we scored above 100 points 7 out of the first 12 matches until we played West Coast. Only once thereafter). I think we'd be pretty short odds to end up top-four for contested and centre clearances this year and so then inside-50s as well - though we have a fairly young midfield brigade still which might fade a fraction.

Well actually our stats held up reasonably well right through the major injuries. It was after round 15 that all our contested stats and scoring efficiency fell off a cliff, after we were starting to get experienced players back into the team. The only variables after round 15 were the lose of Bugg and  although Viney was still playing, he was hampered by his foot problem. Jones, Watts had all come back by round 15 but we kept losing. 

Edited by Earl Hood
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5 hours ago, Skuit said:

This always turns my brain around as well - like a double-negative through connotation. To clarify; we're the seventh-most tackled team. 2016 we were the most tackled team and last year we were on track for one of the top-most. Curious as to what has caused this drop?

Also, I'd love if someone knew where to find the attempted and broken tackle stats to see if there's any variation.

Since the JLT this year I reckon we’ve tried to move the ball forward from stoppages where we can. Last year we seemed to try to handball to the back of the stoppage which slowed our play down and often resulted in another handball sideways or backwards. 

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5 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Love this thread, Skuit.

Out of interest, where are you getting these stats from?

A variety of sources wherever I can find them - which still sometimes requires some extra digging to navigate the sites.

Primarily afl.com, afltables and footy-wire. Would love to know of any others. Always appreciate @Rafiki's subscriber Telstra additions, and I think the Hun may print some unique ones. I imagine the betting agencies might have some obscure stats on occasion as well.

The ones above are all pretty surface - so hoping others can dig out some more curious figures.

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11 hours ago, jnrmac said:

I suspect in the past we held on to the ball for too long or did a stupid number of hot potato handballs and allowed other teams to pressure us with tackles. Hence we now move the ball on pretty quickly.

 

5 hours ago, The team we love said:

Since the JLT this year I reckon we’ve tried to move the ball forward from stoppages where we can. Last year we seemed to try to handball to the back of the stoppage which slowed our play down and often resulted in another handball sideways or backwards. 

This would appear the most logical deduction. Our kick to handball ratio has improved and we're probably clearing it a bit quicker from the breakdowns with less handballs around the pack - two of the biggest gripes on here last season.

It may be the Goody quietly addressed the tackled numbers in the off-season - which would certainly add to fatigue within a game and additional wear across the season - and while it's difficult to quantify among other measures, we seem to be closing out games fairly well.

Goody also strikes me as a man of deep statistics. I made the point in the post-match thread of Lewis's curious post-match on-field interview, where he somehow already knew the match stats for contested and centre-clearance differentials. Obviously a focus to win these numbers to the point where our leaders are being constantly updated.    

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13 hours ago, jnrmac said:

I suspect in the past we held on to the ball for too long or did a stupid number of hot potato handballs and allowed other teams to pressure us with tackles. Hence we now move the ball on pretty quickly.

Also with the younger group maturing they are breaking more tackles, see one C Petracca as exhibit a.

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10 hours ago, The team we love said:

Since the JLT this year I reckon we’ve tried to move the ball forward from stoppages where we can. Last year we seemed to try to handball to the back of the stoppage which slowed our play down and often resulted in another handball sideways or backwards. 

Was going to say the same thing. We're more prepared to move the ball forward at all costs, knock ons, kick off the ground, quick handballs over the top of a tackler. Previous years we've more inclined to handball backwards then sideways and around in a circle. I'd say moving it forward and getting a kick off quicker would result in being tackled less.

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2 hours ago, Cards13 said:

Also with the younger group maturing they are breaking more tackles, see one C Petracca as exhibit a.

That's a good point, tackles only count if you don't get a possession off don't they? (Or do they break the tackles stat down to effective and ineffective tackles?) We seem to be raising our arms to get handballs off in a tackle far more this year (and Petracca just bulldozing through tacklers) which would result in fewer effective tackles.

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On 09/04/2018 at 4:19 AM, Skuit said:

The home of statistics and discussion thereof.

As of the end of round 3;

Scoring for and against

Demons 1st in points scored.

1st in inside-50s

1st in least opposition inside-50s

Thus 1st in inside-50 differential by a huge margin.

3rd in assists and marks inside-50

Last for rebound-50s and second-last for opponent rebound 50s.

Intensity

2nd in total contested possessions –

1st for contested possession differential and the only team at 3-0 for contested wins.

4th clearances (3rd centre/7th stoppages)

4th for tackles

7th for tackles against (this is a huge improvement on recent years)

Possession for and against

16th marks – but 3rd in least opponent marks per game. Also 9th contested marks.   

1st in least opponent kicks

4th in least opponent disposals

12th for clangers

Lastly, it's just three rounds, and we've played two likely bottom-four teams - but I think we tend to play as well or as poorly despite the opposition and that most of these stats will hold. Add your own obscure statistics or whatever you

So what are the stats on frees for and against and is there any indication of where paid, ie forward,mid,or back.

Also any comparison with other team totals.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

That's a good point, tackles only count if you don't get a possession off don't they? (Or do they break the tackles stat down to effective and ineffective tackles?) We seem to be raising our arms to get handballs off in a tackle far more this year (and Petracca just bulldozing through tacklers) which would result in fewer effective tackles.

I don’t know Dr but it has really stood out to me this year players ability to break a tackle or at least hold off an effective tackle to get an effective disposal away.

@Skuit point about rugby plans is an interesting one, I noticed at the game and in replay a couple of times at stoppages where it looked like we were lined up like a rugby defensive line, all on one side of the stoppage with North on the other side. I was wondering were I’d seen it before, Rebels game. Are we trying to play in phases, box kicks and putting the ball out inside the 22? One to watch.

 

Edited by Cards13
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

That's a good point, tackles only count if you don't get a possession off don't they? (Or do they break the tackles stat down to effective and ineffective tackles?) We seem to be raising our arms to get handballs off in a tackle far more this year (and Petracca just bulldozing through tacklers) which would result in fewer effective tackles.

Using physical contact to prevent an opponent in possession of the ball from getting an effective disposal. ie a stoppage or the ball spilling free.

Every stat definition here. 

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-12-28/stats-glossary-every-stat-explained

Edited by jnrmac
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