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grazman

An interesting listen of an outsider's perspective of our list

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2 hours ago, grazman said:

Took the foot off the gas or ran out of petrol?  It's a young list and a long season.  It's hard in the backend of the season when you are relying on a core group who only have one or two preseasons under their belt. I think this year with a strong core of players with 3 or 4 preseasons under their belt now it will be different.

May we never ever ever go through another botched rebuild like this one where we've had to wait 11 years to hopefully get to the strong core of minimal experience you're talking about. Let's hope assuming this list is successful that we retain a solid core of A grade experience as we bring the future crop of young guns through the Club. 

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6 hours ago, PaulRB said:

I don’t think our fade outs these past two seasons is an “attitude” issue, more a reflection of the age group where our talent lies. 

Our young core of very talented players can beat anyone, but until they’re physically and mentally matured they have struggled to maintain it into spring.

That we’ve been mid table with the least experienced list indicates talent, but hitting the physical limits of youth. The Tigers age profile also highlights the value of a physically mature list...

There is no excuse for not beating Carlscum in 2016 at the MCG in round 22

There is no excuse for taking the foot off the gas in Round 22 2017 against  The Bears at the MCG, They  were a very ordinary side. 

In Round 23 2017 at the MCG The Filth played half a side and in the first 12 minutes of the game we did not lay one tackle. 

We didn’t want to win enough both years. 

By Round 23 all sides are tired......

It is all about attitude. 

Edited by Sir Why You Little
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9 hours ago, grazman said:

....

One example that I came across recently was when I listened to one of my favourite AFL podcasts (Junktime) which was recorded just before the draft. 

https://www.podchaser.com/podcasts/junktime-afl-podcast-with-adam-123464/episodes/pre-draft-2017-with-former-afl-23371913

 Craig Coombes (ex AFL recruiter for Port who also worked at Hawthorn as a scout/spy as well) spoke glowing of our prospects. He's on the podcast from about the 29 minute mark.

I like the story Coombes tells of his Norwood supporting mate, Fester, who is so annoyingly vocal from the boundary that opposition players spit on him as they run up the race. 

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1 hour ago, It's Time said:

May we never ever ever go through another botched rebuild like this one where we've had to wait 11 years to hopefully get to the strong core of minimal experience you're talking about. Let's hope assuming this list is successful that we retain a solid core of A grade experience as we bring the future crop of young guns through the Club. 

Agree whole heartedly .

The strong sides have longed realised that "rebuilds" are a myth.

Perhaps dropping to mid table (tenth) every now and then is acceptable but prolonged finishes in the bottom quartile are club killers.

Pretty obvious that the AFL is desperate to lift Carlton out of that brigade before the club suffers long term damage. As to MFC we're on our own destined to wallow in mediocrity which will only be remedied by 10 plus years of solid performances... we can but hope it eventuates.

The relative success of North has papered over some cracks but if they were to become easy beats they could easily once again feel some outside pressure to relocate etc.

Edited by Diamond_Jim
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Coombs made passing mention of Gold Coast going belly up, but as much as I'd love to see them sacked, the AFL looks like it's set on 18 clubs.

A pity. I still maintain GWS and GCS are AFL vanity projects and I'm yet to be convinced there was any need for their introduction.

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33 minutes ago, Tony Tea said:

Coombs made passing mention of Gold Coast going belly up, but as much as I'd love to see them sacked, the AFL looks like it's set on 18 clubs.

A pity. I still maintain GWS and GCS are AFL vanity projects and I'm yet to be convinced there was any need for their introduction.

Agree.  If James Brayshaw hadn’t torpedoed the Roos relocation to GC, Andrew D would not have hastily expanded the comp and I believe we would still have 16 teams....

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6 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

The strong sides have longed realised that "rebuilds" are a myth.

 

The 2 strong sides of the last 10 years, Geelong & Hawthorn have been helped by the expansion. They've been artificially held up and it allowed them to become "destination clubs" which gave them an extra kick.

However...

The Cats are on their last legs & will have to go to a rebuild once the Ablett experiment is over & that maybe a lot sooner than they think.

The Hawks have papered over some cracks but have a lot riding on O'Meara...they don't have the talent to sustain another premiership shot without going back to the draft & rebuilding.

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I don't think our list is good enough to win the flag...then again I thought the same of Richmond the year before and the dogs the year before that. Need some luck and things to go your way during the season, things that nobody can predict.

Let's just hope lady luck decided on the red and the blue for a change.

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It's all noise, I want the team to not believe the hype, I want them to think they have no Talent, that way they will do all the hard things, the only reason we did not make finals is every time we had a big lead in games we took the foot of the pedal, it started in round 1 when we let the saints kick the last 2 goals, and it happened all the way till round 22, I hope the team has learnt that its never over until the final siren, we must finish strong.

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1 hour ago, don't make me angry said:

It's all noise, I want the team to not believe the hype, I want them to think they have no Talent, that way they will do all the hard things, the only reason we did not make finals is every time we had a big lead in games we took the foot of the pedal, it started in round 1 when we let the saints kick the last 2 goals, and it happened all the way till round 22, I hope the team has learnt that its never over until the final siren, we must finish strong.

Blud oath.

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1 hour ago, don't make me angry said:

It's all noise, I want the team to not believe the hype, I want them to think they have no Talent, that way they will do all the hard things, the only reason we did not make finals is every time we had a big lead in games we took the foot of the pedal, it started in round 1 when we let the saints kick the last 2 goals, and it happened all the way till round 22, I hope the team has learnt that its never over until the final siren, we must finish strong.

Exactly. We didn’t want to win enough. 

Has gone on for decades. Have been told by ex opposition players that MFC players often threw lip during the year but then never delivered later in the year

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11 hours ago, rjay said:

The 2 strong sides of the last 10 years, Geelong & Hawthorn have been helped by the expansion. They've been artificially held up and it allowed them to become "destination clubs" which gave them an extra kick.

However...

The Cats are on their last legs & will have to go to a rebuild once the Ablett experiment is over & that maybe a lot sooner than they think.

The Hawks have papered over some cracks but have a lot riding on O'Meara...they don't have the talent to sustain another premiership shot without going back to the draft & rebuilding.

But the Cats & Hawks continue to be thereabouts & threaten rjay and it's doubtful that either club will bottom-out.  Mid table is as far any club would want to fall in an 18 team comp. 

Trading for established talent & signing free agents is just as important as the draft if not more so.  As an example,  we've just traded 2 first round picks for Lever whilst the Hawks picked up Frawley for a song a few years ago.  The Cats picked up Dangerfield cheap as well. 

In recent times we've happily traded draft picks for Vince,  Tyson,  Hibberd,  Melksham,  Frost,  Garlett,  Lewis,  Bugg & even Hogan could be counted as a trade.  And the aforementioned Lever.  Our list is being rebuilt on the back of astute planning. 

Wanting to draft good players is ongoing for all clubs year by year - but there are no guarantees drafting teenagers ... however,  a club can afford to misfire in the draft every now and again as long as that club trades well and continues to bring in free agents.  

Player development,  good coaching & good administration are the 3 other main areas but you'd always hope that your club wouldn't misfire in those areas :ph34r:

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To an outsider, we do look like a good prospect.

However, our club culture continues to hold us back.

We seem to have conquered (for the time being) the savior complex. This was evidenced by the more subdued reaction to us getting Jake Lever. If it were 2009, we would have been taking extra measurements for our trophy cabinet for the three premierships we were going to win. Now he is viewed as another cog in the machine.

However, we STILL have a higher opinion of ourselves than we should, and we STILL think that a premiership is part of our birthright. It seems like some think it will just ‘happen’. 

I have seen 3 major rebuilds started from scratch at the club in my time. The first (1997) delivered some returns short of the ultimate. The second (2008) was an absolute fiasco (and probably cost us a generation of supporters). Both however promised us a ‘generation of success’ and to put us back as one of the most successful clubs in the league (a fallacy).

The most recent rebuild (2014) tried to get us to not get too far ahead of ourselves but I am getting concerned that old habits are creeping back. We are no certainty for finals next year and to think that way is setting ourselves up for a fall.

Taking into account the club culture for mine is a better indicator as to where we are going than statistical noise.

 

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On 12/01/2018 at 10:52 AM, Ron Burgundy said:

Injuries are critical each year. For every team.

Even though I loathed our appalling finish to last season, I'm actually surprised we managed to win so many games (and it should've been more) given the injuries and suspensions we had to endure for big chunks of the season: Gawn, Viney, Lewis, Jones, Hogan, Smith (x2), Salem, Bugg, Brayshaw, Garland, Vince, Spencer, Watts etc. It was ridiculous.

Hats off to Goodwin for not making excuses for our performances. We did however have a lot of important players out throughout the season - even our injury toll within games was bad.

With a bit better luck on the injury front, we just have to be pushing for the top 6 or so. After all, we were very competitive last year with a younger, injury depleted list - it's more experienced and Jake Lever is now wearing the red and the blue.  

 

Jack Viney is a major concern for me. Really hope they don’t rush him this time and put him in when he is good and ready, correction when the drs/Physio’s say he is good to go. 

Edited by DemonOX
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59 minutes ago, Macca said:

But the Cats & Hawks continue to be thereabouts & threaten rjay and it's doubtful that either club will bottom-out.

The Hawks won't be a threat this year 'Macca' and the Cats have a year left at it at best.

Trading and free agency are very important but the draft underpins it all. You build your foundation with the draft and fill needs with the other.

A well managed club won't bottom out like we did, that was a total debacle but they will have their turn at the bottom as all clubs will. They will need to rebuild through the draft.

Lets come back in 2019/20 and see where these clubs sit.

 

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34 minutes ago, rjay said:

The Hawks won't be a threat this year 'Macca' and the Cats have a year left at it at best.

'Thereabouts & threatening' is not necessarily threatening for a flag in an immediate sense rjay.

Teams that can finish in the bottom part of the 8 or mid table can threaten for a flag a year or 2 later ... or they can fall away or remain in the same area.  Do a lot of things right and get a good run with injuries and the prize is there for the taking.

There's a whole host of clubs (including us) that are 1 - 3 years away from a flag but those same clubs can remain in similar positions or fall away.

Both the Hawks & Cats can finish in any part of the 8 or miss completely ... but I doubt that either club will bottom out as you are intimating.  If there was a total reliance on the draft like we had in the recent past then they could bottom out. 

But clubs are smarter now - trading and free agency will be and should be high on the agenda.  And if a club trades well and brings in decent free agents then they shouldn't (in theory) bottom out.

The unhealthy reliance on drafting teenage talent is largely a thing of the past.  Don't get me wrong,  drafting is still a very important aspect but to be 'all-in' on drafting is high risk.

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By the way @rjay,  I hope you are right.

I'm entirely sick & tired of seeing the Hawks & Cats pushing for success.

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45 minutes ago, Macca said:

The unhealthy reliance on drafting teenage talent is largely a thing of the past.  Don't get me wrong,  drafting is still a very important aspect but to be 'all-in' on drafting is high risk.

Another thing is that drafting usually takes around three years before you get results.

We may think we have drafted well over the last 4 years but save for Oliver the bulk of those draftees are still in the "potential basket".

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52 minutes ago, Macca said:

By the way @rjay,  I hope you are right.

I'm entirely sick & tired of seeing the Hawks & Cats pushing for success.

I think the Cats are destined to fall in a heap more so than the Hawks.

I really wonder what a lot of the Geelong playing group are thinking with Gary Jnr. back in the saddle. Blokes like Stevie J, Pops Kelly and Paul Chapman must have raised an eyebrow when they heard he was back. For years, Geelong convinced us that it was no longer a self-indulgent organization that valued the team over individual hero worship. Ablett’s comeback may put that proposition to the test. This surely will have an impact on retaining as well as recruiting new players.

Say what you like about Clarko being harsh on long term servants of the club, but he isn’t hypocritical. He did no different when he came in and started cleaning out the joint in 2005.

Edited by Colin B. Flaubert
Who is this Clarke fellow coaching Hawthorn?
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4 minutes ago, Colin B. Flaubert said:

I think the Cats are destined to fall in a heap more so than the Hawks.

I really wonder what a lot of the Geelong playing group are thinking with Gary Jnr. back in the saddle. Blokes like Stevie J, Pops Kelly and Paul Chapman must have raised an eyebrow when they heard he was back. For years, Geelong convinced us that it was no longer a self-indulgent organization that valued the team over individual hero worship. Ablett’s comeback may put that proposition to the test. This surely will have an impact on retaining as well as recruiting new players.

Say what you like about Clarke being harsh on long term servants of the club, but he isn’t hypocritical. He did no different when he came in and started cleaning out the joint in 2005.

One could argue that (of late) Clarkson has helped set up his past champs (Mitchell,  Lewis & Hodge) at other clubs Col.  They exit their veterans well now (or, at least as well as is possible)

As for Gary jr ... a lot of these A graders tend to have a decent year or 2 when the end is looming.  They've recruited him for the 'right-now' and that's ok if the player in question is at least B+.  Barring injury,  he might just do alright.

Free agency is still in it's infancy ... sooner or later we're going see a club or 2 make a big play in that area.  But the 'big-play' might be a couple/few years in the making.  As stated earlier,  clubs already know the dangers of bottoming out so falling away to mid-table is as far as they'd want to go. 

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4 minutes ago, Macca said:

One could argue that (of late) Clarkson has helped set up his past champs (Mitchell,  Lewis & Hodge) at other clubs Col.  They exit their veterans well now (or, at least as well as is possible)

As for Gary jr ... a lot of these A graders tend to have a decent year or 2 when the end is looming.  They've recruited him for the 'right-now' and that's ok if the player in question is at least B+.  Barring injury,  he might just do alright.

Free agency is still in it's infancy ... sooner or later we're going see a club or 2 make a big play in that area.  But the 'big-play' might be a couple/few years in the making.  As stated earlier,  clubs already know the dangers of bottoming out so falling away to mid-table is as far as they'd want to go. 

The “Big Play” has already happened

Franklin to the Swanettes for $9 Mill

nothing will suprise now....

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2 minutes ago, Macca said:

One could argue that (of late) Clarkson has helped set up his past champs (Mitchell,  Lewis & Hodge) at other clubs Col.  They exit their veterans well now (or, at least as well as is possible)

Very good point and it was something we did horribly from 2009 to 2012. I think Flash was the first bloke from that era who actually was treated with a modicum of respect.

I think those three will be more than happy to come back to Hawthorn at some point as Clarko spoke to them like men. No alleged Cuddles/Junior ‘you are retiring round 22’ plane conversations but no beating around the bush either. And in the end, a resolution was found that left all parties happy.

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26 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Another thing is that drafting usually takes around three years before you get results.

We may think we have drafted well over the last 4 years but save for Oliver the bulk of those draftees are still in the "potential basket".

In terms of actual results re top-end picks you're right DJ ... however,  I reckon we've seen enough in Hogan,  Viney (both virtual top end picks) & Petracca to forecast a decent return on investment.  And the investment in top-end picks is often much larger than elsewhere.

Salem (pick 9) & Brayshaw both need a good run at it whilst the jury is out on Weideman.  From an overall perspective our recruiting has been very good in the recent past.  We've traded well of late but we're yet to travel the free agency path.  It's nice knowing that free agency is always an option.

Good, well run clubs should never bottom out.

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8 minutes ago, Sir Why You Little said:

The “Big Play” has already happened

Franklin to the Swanettes for $9 Mill

nothing will suprise now....

Good point Wyl I was thinking in terms of a club bringing in 3 or 4 decent free agents in one hit ... much like what often happens in overseas sports.  Right now, it's difficult to imagine teams being in a position to do such a thing but North did it in the 70's (10 year rule)

And the Blues,  Hawks & Dons cleaned up on all the interstate talent in the 80's.  Thus,  the premierships flowed.

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2 minutes ago, Macca said:

Good, well run clubs should never bottom out.

Fully agree again with one caveat.

Even great clubs like the Swans, Hawks and Cats occasionally need a ‘transition’ season. One where they might win 8 to 10 games but by no means disgrace themselves.

They use these seasons to potentially transition some older blokes out, get some core B grade 22-27 year olds into the club and to introduce some mid tier kids into the team. Then they reload for another go one to two years later.

Sydney did it in 2009, Geelong in 2015 and Hawthorn did it last year.

One thing that is superficially encouraging is that we are starting to get the age spread these type of clubs have. 

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