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grazman

An interesting listen of an outsider's perspective of our list

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Normally I'm a glass half empty kind of fella,  except when it comes to footy and especially our prospects in the preseason. I have tended towards a more sanguine approach of our upcoming fortunes  often dismissing the pessimistic forecasts of independent observers as being ill informed or waiting to be discredited (like any 'normal' football supporter does).  I've been burnt over the last decade as invariably they were right and I was wrong.  What makes the situation a little different now is the large amount of chatter about our improved prospects.  

One example that I came across recently was when I listened to one of my favourite AFL podcasts (Junktime) which was recorded just before the draft. 

https://www.podchaser.com/podcasts/junktime-afl-podcast-with-adam-123464/episodes/pre-draft-2017-with-former-afl-23371913

 Craig Coombes (ex AFL recruiter for Port who also worked at Hawthorn as a scout/spy as well) spoke glowing of our prospects. He's on the podcast from about the 29 minute mark for those of you not into this type of comedy.

He was being asked about the lists as they stand.  He has a formula that he uses based on 1-4 year players on the list with a differential applied to those that have played 15+ games and those that are in the best 22.  He gives them a score out of 10. 

In a nutshell he had Melbourne ranked first for development (10/10)  and can see us doing a  Bulldogs or Richmond this season.  He had us with twenty  1-4 year players with ten 15+ games of these he has assessed that 8 are in our best 22. (I’m guessing here he’s talking about Oliver, Hogan, Brayshaw, Petracca, Hunt, Salem Lever,  and you can raffle the rest)    Yes, confirmation bias here is a dangerous thing, but it’s interesting that a lot of non- Melbourne people are being very bullish about us (which I genuinely can't recall having happened for well over a decade) the same types that when we were crap- told us in no uncertain terms we were crap- so there maybe something in this.

I think we have some players who will stamp themselves as being genuinely elite in the next 12-18 months and I'm still a blue sky junkie when it comes to guys like Joel Smith and Sam Weideman.  Anyway I always think it’s interesting when a complete outsider with AFL experience is so bullish about us.  As the man in the hat would say.. 'do yourself a favour'.

Edited by grazman
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The only issue I see with these predictions, is that none of these experts would have picked Tigers or the Bulldogs to win a flag 

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Good point D11. However, at the beginning of the respective years, few would say that those two teams had no chance whatsoever of winning a flag. No one for the past decade would have even entertained a sliver of hope that the Dees could win one - until now (maybe). 

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1 hour ago, Demons11 said:

The only issue I see with these predictions, is that none of these experts would have picked Tigers or the Bulldogs to win a flag 

....but they did....

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Didn’t Voss say when he was coaching that we would be the next superpower team or something like that and look what happened. 

Its nice when people thInk we are going to be a great team but let’s see what they produce on the field first as we all know when expectations are high how disappointing our team can be. 

Time will tell. 

Edited by DemonOX
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Interesting discussion, and no doubt the list has improved, but what still concerns me is the way the same list of players took the foot off the gas in the last 2 rounds of 2016 and 2017

Attitude will determine how far this club goes. 

This club is famous for talking tough before a job is done

nobody rates The MFC, we are still laughed at by opposition supporters

SEN had the Demon thread up on their facebook page yesterday. Interesting read

goodluck Simon. 2018 could make or break you....

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1 hour ago, Demons11 said:

The only issue I see with these predictions, is that none of these experts would have picked Tigers or the Bulldogs to win a flag 

I don't think picking a team to win the flag is the point.  Rather it is picking teams which are in a strong position to do so. After that random factors like run with injury (and when) etc. play a big part.

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Flights and Grand Final tickets booked. 

Edited by Ethan Tremblay
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yeah I remember in 2010/2011 when we were going to be the next superpower or "they're gonna be something"

the thing that is different is that back then, people thought early draft picks equaled success. Dees had the pick of the draft before GC and GWS came in so everyone thought we would be a good team.  Shows how intelligent the media are!

now we are talking about young players that have shown elite potential on the field which gives me real hope. and the club has some stability for once.  We haven't sacked a coach since Neeld.  certainly our most stable period since Daniher

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1 hour ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Interesting discussion, and no doubt the list has improved, but what still concerns me is the way the same list of players took the foot off the gas in the last 2 rounds of 2016 and 2017

Attitude will determine how far this club goes. 

This club is famous for talking tough before a job is done

nobody rates The MFC, we are still laughed at by opposition supporters

SEN had the Demon thread up on their facebook page yesterday. Interesting read

goodluck Simon. 2018 could make or break you....

I don’t think our fade outs these past two seasons is an “attitude” issue, more a reflection of the age group where our talent lies. 

Our young core of very talented players can beat anyone, but until they’re physically and mentally matured they have struggled to maintain it into spring.

That we’ve been mid table with the least experienced list indicates talent, but hitting the physical limits of youth. The Tigers age profile also highlights the value of a physically mature list...

Edited by PaulRB
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3 hours ago, Demons11 said:

The only issue I see with these predictions, is that none of these experts would have picked Tigers or the Bulldogs to win a flag 

Agree. It comes down to attitude and application and I'm not sure that MFC has that. If you look at the player list and potential there is no way anyone would have picked the Tigers back in Jan 2017.

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1 hour ago, DubDee said:

yeah I remember in 2010/2011 when we were going to be the next superpower or "they're gonna be something"

the thing that is different is that back then, people thought early draft picks equaled success. Dees had the pick of the draft before GC and GWS came in so everyone thought we would be a good team.  Shows how intelligent the media are!

now we are talking about young players that have shown elite potential on the field which gives me real hope. and the club has some stability for once.  We haven't sacked a coach since Neeld.  certainly our most stable period since Daniher

i actually think that it was a false dawn and a terrible time to be down the bottom of the ladder when those teams were due to come in

people think they sucked the guts out of two drafts, but it was actually significantly more than that

the supposed best 17 year olds were removed from the draft as both gc17 and gw$ in 2009 and 2010 had priority access

gc17 didn't choose all that wisely - Luke Russell, Maverick Weller, Taylor Hine, Josh Toy, Matt Shaw, Piers Flanagan, Hayden Jolly, Alex Keath, Jack Hutchins, Tom Nicholls, Brandon Matera, Trent McKenzie

only six of those remain on senior afl lists, i think, a few as re-rookied players this year?

gw$ didn't do much better in terms of players still in the system some seven or so years later - Jeremy Cameron, Adam Treloar, Dylan Shiel, Nathan Wilson, Jack Hombsch, Tom Bugg, Tim Golds, Sam Darley, Josh Growden, Jarrod Harding, Simon Tunbridge, Gerard Ugle - but the quality of those first four or so players is miles better than those picked by gc17, including three of the top 50 or so players in the competition in the first three mentioned

ermma quayle article from 2015: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/the-gold-coast-and-gws-17yearolds-where-are-they-now-20151202-gldloq.html

Edited by DemonAndrew
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I think our age profile is just getting to a point that will give us the best chance to make and be successful in finals.

Currently we have 8 players with +100 games experience (with 3 more to reach that point before the middle of the season)

There are 9 players between 50 & 100 games experience, plus another 9 players poised the go past 50 games well before finals time.

All in all 26 players with +50 games experience before finals time and 11 of those with over 100 games experience.

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Injuries are critical each year. For every team.

Even though I loathed our appalling finish to last season, I'm actually surprised we managed to win so many games (and it should've been more) given the injuries and suspensions we had to endure for big chunks of the season: Gawn, Viney, Lewis, Jones, Hogan, Smith (x2), Salem, Bugg, Brayshaw, Garland, Vince, Spencer, Watts etc. It was ridiculous.

Hats off to Goodwin for not making excuses for our performances. We did however have a lot of important players out throughout the season - even our injury toll within games was bad.

With a bit better luck on the injury front, we just have to be pushing for the top 6 or so. After all, we were very competitive last year with a younger, injury depleted list - it's more experienced and Jake Lever is now wearing the red and the blue.  

 

Edited by Ron Burgundy
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47 minutes ago, DemonAndrew said:

i actually think that it was a false dawn and a terrible time to be down the bottom of the ladder when those teams were due to come in

people think they sucked the guts out of two drafts, but it was actually significantly more than that

the supposed best 17 year olds were removed from the draft as both gc17 and gw$ in 2009 and 2010 had priority access

gc17 didn't choose all that wisely - Luke Russell, Maverick Weller, Taylor Hine, Josh Toy, Matt Shaw, Piers Flanagan, Hayden Jolly, Alex Keath, Jack Hutchins, Tom Nicholls, Brandon Matera, Trent McKenzie

only six of those remain on senior afl lists, i think, a few as re-rookied players this year?

gw$ didn't do much better in terms of players still in the system some seven or so years later - Jeremy Cameron, Adam Treloar, Dylan Shiel, Nathan Wilson, Jack Hombsch, Tom Bugg, Tim Golds, Sam Darley, Josh Growden, Jarrod Harding, Simon Tunbridge, Gerard Ugle - but the quality of those first four or so players is miles better than those picked by gc17, including three of the top 50 or so players in the competition in the first three mentioned

ermma quayle article from 2015: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/the-gold-coast-and-gws-17yearolds-where-are-they-now-20151202-gldloq.html

all relevant points but we only have ourselves to blame.  we had early picks in 2007 and 2008 too and screwed them up.  anyway best to move on!  :-)

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3 hours ago, Demons11 said:

The only issue I see with these predictions, is that none of these experts would have picked Tigers or the Bulldogs to win a flag 

True but.... the rules of the game have changed. I don't think this has been factored in enough. Teams have an extra week off before finals. This means a whole bunch of things including getting players refreshed or back from injury etc. Important when you are struggling desperately to make finals.

The Toiges and Dogs had the best Septembers. The Toiges defence conceded 5, 8 and 9 goals in finals. Quite extraordinary. There was  alot of focus on their forwards but the defence for me won it.

I thin what it means now is that making the finals gives everyone a much better chance of winning a flag. It's why I was so dirty on missing the finals. You just never know. Particularly in such an even year.

 

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4 hours ago, Demons11 said:

The only issue I see with these predictions, is that none of these experts would have picked Tigers or the Bulldogs to win a flag 

This is just list assessment. Nowadays there are a lot of other factors to take into consideration when assessing Premiers and some of them, like injuries can't be predicted. 

1. Injuries. 

The Toigs had a dream run with injuries this year. The year before the Doggies ended up with almost a full list for the finals and the benefit of the first bye for returning players. In 2005 the Swans only played 26 players the whole season. We had a shocker with injuries and suspensions and were still very close. These outs also put a huge extra workload on the young uninjured players who couldn't be managed ideally and not surprisingly tired by the end of the season.  Injuries during the GF. eg 2016 Franklin was injured in first 4 minutes. Parker taken out at the first centre bounce and Hannebery taken out in the critical last 7 minutes.  

2. Coaching.

GWS are beginning to show that you can have an elite list but nowadays need an elite coaching panel that runs deep. I have a feeling if we end up facing them in finals or the big one our coaching panel will be significantly stronger and deeper. It's not just Goodwin but also McCartney and Jennings. They proved themselves in 2017 winning more centre clearances (the most strategic part of the gameplan) than they lost during that 8 week period when we didn't have a ruckman.

3. Fixture. 

The Toigs had a dream fixture last year which left them with a significant record by the half way mark. We all know what ours was like. 

4. Umpiring

Hopefully we won't see anything like the advantage Doggies received in 2016 including +20 frees in the GF. The equivalent of a significant extra player. Plus several goals from howler decisions. 

Edited by It's Time
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14 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

True but.... the rules of the game have changed. I don't think this has been factored in enough. Teams have an extra week off before finals. This means a whole bunch of things including getting players refreshed or back from injury etc. Important when you are struggling desperately to make finals.

The Toiges and Dogs had the best Septembers. The Toiges defence conceded 5, 8 and 9 goals in finals. Quite extraordinary. There was  alot of focus on their forwards but the defence for me won it.

I thin what it means now is that making the finals gives everyone a much better chance of winning a flag. It's why I was so dirty on missing the finals. You just never know. Particularly in such an even year.

 

Interesting theory. Never seen a team win a Premiership when they haven't made the finals. 

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30 minutes ago, It's Time said:

Interesting theory. Never seen a team win a Premiership when they haven't made the finals. 

Ha ha good pick up! I mean that everyone has a much more even chance to win a flag - in the past the top 4 won the bulk of the flags....but you knew that :)

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3 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Ha ha good pick up! I mean that everyone has a much more even chance to win a flag - in the past the top 4 won the bulk of the flags....but you knew that :)

Yep and agree. Just trying to keep up the low end pettiness that is supposed to be humour on here. 

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3 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Interesting discussion, and no doubt the list has improved, but what still concerns me is the way the same list of players took the foot off the gas in the last 2 rounds of 2016 and 2017

Took the foot off the gas or ran out of petrol?  It's a young list and a long season.  It's hard in the backend of the season when you are relying on a core group who only have one or two preseasons under their belt. I think this year with a strong core of players with 3 or 4 preseasons under their belt now it will be different.

Edited by grazman

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1 hour ago, Ron Burgundy said:

Injuries are critical each year. For every team.

Even though I loathed our appalling finish to last season, I'm actually surprised we managed to win so many games (and it should've been more) given the injuries and suspensions we had to endure for big chunks of the season: Gawn, Viney, Lewis, Jones, Hogan, Smith (x2), Salem, Bugg, Brayshaw, Garland, Vince, Spencer, Watts etc. It was ridiculous.

Hats off to Goodwin for not making excuses for our performances. We did however have a lot of important players out throughout the season - even our injury toll within games was bad.

With a bit better luck on the injury front, we just have to be pushing for the top 6 or so. After all, we were very competitive last year with a younger, injury depleted list - it's now more experienced and Jake Lever is now wearing the red and the blue.  

 

With a bit of luck we coulda/shoulda won 14-15 games last season. Adding Lever along with natural improvement and some luck top 4 inst out of the question.

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Last year was there for the taking. I wasn't upset as some at as not making it as we still have a lot of growing up to do but just disappointed in the fact that I think anyone would back themselves against won it.

The thing about the Tigers list compared to ours is they do have:

- A two time Coleman Medalist and two time All-Australian at full forward

- Two Brownlow Medalists running through the midfield

- A 4 time All Australian centre half back who I think is the best player in the game.

They have plenty in the right age bracket around them and solid role players that they should have been better for longer and still should be up and about for a while.

I like our list and confident in the talent we have but I can only hope we unleash some stars like the Tigers have produced.

For us to go anywhere we need Jesse to become the star we think he is and our players who haven't really broken out yet with "potential" (ugliest word in AFL) in Salem, Brayshaw, Weid, Stretch to really go next level

 

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