Not the Youngest/Least Experienced Anymore ...

[Demonland 64,406]

No more using this excuse.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/the-age-and-experience-ladder-for-2018-where-your-club-sits/news-story/ec1626ea2a37e51263bd10b9084fc31d

2018 AFL AGE LADDER

Average age of each club’s playing group

Adelaide — 24.6

Hawthorn — 24.6

Geelong — 24.4

Collingwood — 24.4.

GWS — 24.3

Port Adelaide — 24.2

Essendon — 24.1

Sydney — 24

Melbourne — 24

Fremantle — 23.9

Richmond — 23.9

West Coast — 23.9

Carlton — 23.8

Western Bulldogs — 23.8

St Kilda — 23.6

North Melbourne — 23.5

Brisbane — 23.5

Gold Coast — 23.1

2018 AFL EXPERIENCE LADDER

Average games played by each club’s playing group

Hawthorn — 74.1

Port Adelaide — 72.5

Collingwood — 69.9

Adelaide — 67.9

Sydney — 65.6

Geelong — 65.4

West Coast — 63.9

GWS — 63.9

Fremantle — 63.2

Richmond — 61.7

Essendon — 57.6

Melbourne — 56.5

Western Bulldogs — 56.4

Carlton — 56.4

Brisbane — 55.2

Gold Coast — 53.5

St Kilda — 52.6

North Melbourne — 51.8

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,150]

Hawthorn has lost Hodge, Lewis, Mitchell, Lake, Gibson and Hale from their last premiership team, but they still have the second oldest and the most experienced team in the league... they're still very top heavy.

[Mazer Rackham 14,968]

Being the youngest or least experienced list was always a mirage. It's not good, or bad, or anything meaningful. Certainly nothing to hang our hats on.

Only one statistic counts. Games won.

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,150]

5 minutes ago, Mazer Rackham said:

Being the youngest or least experienced list was always a mirage. It's not good, or bad, or anything meaningful. Certainly nothing to hang our hats on.

Only one statistic counts. Games won.

Agree and disagree... simply writing games and age for the whole squad doesn't tell you a whole lot.  A break-down of the age and experience of their best 22 tells you a lot more.

[FarNorthernD 5,839]

7 minutes ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Agree and disagree... simply writing games and age for the whole squad doesn't tell you a whole lot.  A break-down of the age and experience of their best 22 tells you a lot more.

Agree. This is the list that best indicates where Melbourne may go

Hogan 23 y.o at the beginning of 2018 season. 51 games played

Salem 22 years 46 games

Petracca 22 years 39 games

Viney 24 years 88 games

Lever 22 years 56 games

Brayshaw 22 years 36 games

Tyson 24 years 90 games

Oliver 21 years 35 games

Stretch 21 years 36 games

ANB 22 years 34 games

Harmes 22 years 44 games

OMac 22 years 37 games

I know that all Clubs have good young players but that is a dozen good to very good players who are about to reach a 4-5 year sweet spot. Gawn, TMac, Garlett, Jetta, Melksham and Hibberd are all young enough and good enough to play for most of that time too. 

We really should be giving it a fair nudge anytime from next season on.

[Mazer Rackham 14,968]

2 minutes ago, fndee said:

We really should be giving it a fair nudge anytime from next season on.

We should have given it a fair nudge this season just gone.

And our end to '16 was also a nudge-free zone.

It wasn't our youth that was our downfall, it was the space between our ears.

A problem that will continue to haunt us, unless addressed, regardless of our youth.

[tiers 2,761]

The late Dean Bailey used to say that a team needs 70 games together as a group to achieve success.

Brendon McCartney says that it takes 5 years to develop an AFL footballer.

Both happening now and not long to go. I will bide my time until their predictions synchronise.

[FarNorthernD 5,839]

22 minutes ago, Mazer Rackham said:

We should have given it a fair nudge this season just gone.

And our end to '16 was also a nudge-free zone.

It wasn't our youth that was our downfall, it was the space between our ears.

A problem that will continue to haunt us, unless addressed, regardless of our youth.

I sort of agree with that but I don’t think we were any realistic chance before this year - too young and too inexperienced. 

The problem between the ears I feel comes down to leadership. Jones, the fine servant he has been, doesn’t seem to be able to make a difference when games start to go against us. I think this is why Viney was promoted early last year and I think he was sorely missed in round 23 this year. 

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,150]

33 minutes ago, Mazer Rackham said:

We should have given it a fair nudge this season just gone.

And our end to '16 was also a nudge-free zone.

It wasn't our youth that was our downfall, it was the space between our ears.

A problem that will continue to haunt us, unless addressed, regardless of our youth.

But something that help the 'between the ears' part is experience.

We needed cooler heads against Fremantle an Hawthorn.

[DemonOX 8,529]

There r NO more excuses for our club.

It’s time to put up and perform. 

Edited December 1, 2017 by DemonOX

[nosoupforme 3,085]

39 minutes ago, fndee said:

Agree. This is the list that best indicates where Melbourne may go

Hogan 23 y.o at the beginning of 2018 season. 51 games played

Salem 22 years 46 games

Petracca 22 years 39 games

Viney 24 years 88 games

Lever 22 years 56 games

Brayshaw 22 years 36 games

Tyson 24 years 90 games

Oliver 21 years 35 games

Stretch 21 years 36 games

ANB 22 years 34 games

Harmes 22 years 44 games

OMac 22 years 37 games

I know that all Clubs have good young players but that is a dozen good to very good players who are about to reach a 4-5 year sweet spot. Gawn, TMac, Garlett, Jetta, Melksham and Hibberd are all young enough and good enough to play for most of that time too. 

We really should be giving it a fair nudge anytime from next season on.

I think now we are out of our NAPPIES and ready to GOOOOOOO! 2018.

[poita 3,573]

Note the following story from today's HS as well:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/is-your-clubs-list-in-the-afl-premiership-sweet-spot/news-story/540bb90bc4d58552fbc5441d068cf2d3

We rank 17th for players aged 25-29, 1st for players aged 21-24. Assuming the quality is there, that would suggest we are still a couple of years away from having a critical mass of players in the sweet spot. Of course, it doesn't help that we keep trading away players from that age bracket.

[Gator 16,891]

1 hour ago, fndee said:

Agree. This is the list that best indicates where Melbourne may go

Hogan 23 y.o at the beginning of 2018 season. 51 games played

Salem 22 years 46 games

Petracca 22 years 39 games

Viney 24 years 88 games

Lever 22 years 56 games

Brayshaw 22 years 36 games

Tyson 24 years 90 games

Oliver 21 years 35 games

Stretch 21 years 36 games

ANB 22 years 34 games

Harmes 22 years 44 games

OMac 22 years 37 games

I know that all Clubs have good young players but that is a dozen good to very good players who are about to reach a 4-5 year sweet spot. Gawn, TMac, Garlett, Jetta, Melksham and Hibberd are all young enough and good enough to play for most of that time too. 

We really should be giving it a fair nudge anytime from next season on.

Oliver is 20 and doesn't turn 21 until 3/4s of the way through the year.

[FarNorthernD 5,839]

2 minutes ago, ProDee said:

Oliver is 20 and doesn't turn 21 until 3/4s of the way through the year.

You are right

I also forgot to put Hunt on the list. 22 years old and 41 games

[DaveyDee 421]

2 hours ago, Demonland said:

No more using this excuse.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/the-age-and-experience-ladder-for-2018-where-your-club-sits/news-story/ec1626ea2a37e51263bd10b9084fc31d

2018 AFL AGE LADDER

Average age of each club’s playing group

Adelaide — 24.6

Hawthorn — 24.6

Geelong — 24.4

Collingwood — 24.4.

GWS — 24.3

Port Adelaide — 24.2

Essendon — 24.1

Sydney — 24

Melbourne — 24

Fremantle — 23.9

Richmond — 23.9

West Coast — 23.9

Carlton — 23.8

Western Bulldogs — 23.8

St Kilda — 23.6

North Melbourne — 23.5

Brisbane — 23.5

Gold Coast — 23.1

2018 AFL EXPERIENCE LADDER

Average games played by each club’s playing group

Hawthorn — 74.1

Port Adelaide — 72.5

Collingwood — 69.9

Adelaide — 67.9

Sydney — 65.6

Geelong — 65.4

West Coast — 63.9

GWS — 63.9

Fremantle — 63.2

Richmond — 61.7

Essendon — 57.6

Melbourne — 56.5

Western Bulldogs — 56.4

Carlton — 56.4

Brisbane — 55.2

Gold Coast — 53.5

St Kilda — 52.6

North Melbourne — 51.8

First time in 15 years think we are a genuine chance to finish 7th,8th,9th or 10th - we have the right mix of depth, quality & gameplan - anything less and I would be disappointed.

However, we crunch the numbers on a weekly basis and by rounds 3-5 next year we will have a much clearer picture -  were MFC could easily see an adjustment either up or down. But I"m optimistic it should be following our upward trend.

We are a good solid 4-8 years from a premiership assuming we can keep our Footy Department spending up -and I can't recall being ever able to say that. However, football changes quickly and you can always snag one ahead of time aka Hawks 2008?  

Edited December 1, 2017 by DaveyDee

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,569]

1 hour ago, fndee said:

I sort of agree with that but I don’t think we were any realistic chance before this year - too young and too inexperienced. 

The problem between the ears I feel comes down to leadership. Jones, the fine servant he has been, doesn’t seem to be able to make a difference when games start to go against us. I think this is why Viney was promoted early last year and I think he was sorely missed in round 23 this year. 

Can't expect Jones to do it all on his own.  Reality is that good sides need genuine leadership in all parts of the ground.

[rjay 23,860]

I posted this a few months back and thought it worth revisiting particularly with some of the rubbish stats that have been appearing in the media today.

If I'm reading his, Ben Darwin's "team work index" right then clubs like Port will really struggle in 2018. Bringing in so many players from other clubs particularly those that have been in the system for a while is a recipe for disaster. Players bring there own ways and those of the clubs they have left behind and it's hard to develop an integrated game plan in that situation.

I think we have approached it well in picking off players like Lever and not taking the scattergun approach of Port and in the past Collingwood. It looks good in the media and looks like you are being really proactive, I mean mental giants in the media have Port up there as a big chance...but lets wait and see.

This is a really interesting interview for anyone really interested in team sports and team building...well worth the time to have a listen.

On 02/10/2017 at 7:34 PM, rjay said:

I thought this was the most interesting interview on sport I had heard in a long time. I'm not usually a stats man but this is much more than that.

Ben Darwin was on with KB and Brian Waldron at the start of the year and predicted Collingwood would drop off when everyone was talking them up. He also said we are heading up and surprisingly had the Tiges on the improve, he didn't predict a flag but said they finally had it right.

They also looked at the Dogs 3 years back and predicted their rise.

His predictions are based around analytics his company has developed called the TWI (team work index)...

I think it's worth a good listen, he starts at around 1 minute 50...

It might temper some of the aggressive traders and maybe get us to think more clearly about what it takes to build a champion team.

The messiah complex cops a real beating here and I think we can see why Richmond are now successful. They've built a lot of their own and brought in to fill needs...it's how I see us heading and I hope we stick to it.

 

https://audioboom.com/posts/5608235-ben-darwin-gainline-biz-on-hungry-for-sport

 

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,569]

2 hours ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Hawthorn has lost Hodge, Lewis, Mitchell, Lake, Gibson and Hale from their last premiership team, but they still have the second oldest and the most experienced team in the league... they're still very top heavy.

And still struggled massively for big parts of last season.  No first round pick 2016 & 2017.  

I really do hope that they are heading for a period of prolonged struggle like we have had.

 

[Little Goffy 12,507]

Strangely enough we're not statistically any older than the 2017 list, but that list included a number of veteran player who never really took the field (Lumumba, Garland, Spencer, come to mind).

Based on this article from the AFL website, in December 2016, our figures were;

Age: 23 yrs, 233days (so approx 100 days difference)

Games: 58 (meaning we've actually gone down by this measure very slightly)

 

I do think that this is also one of the situations where simple averages are very low value.

For example, Vince and Lewis together have played 500 games, or 20% of our total. Either one of them retiring would have put us on the bottom of the experience ladder. But the same could be said for many clubs.

You can do something similar with age, though not as dramatic because the count ranges from 18 to 35, not zero to 400!

But with age there is also the question of how to interpret mature rookies like Smith (26) and Maynard (26) and and late bloomers like VanDenBerg (25) and Wagner (23). Again it will be a subtlety affecting many clubs.

If I were writing an article comparing age and experience of AFL teams, I'd look at 'players who should be in their prime' (100 games +) and players for whom age is beginning to work against them (say, 28+). You could then throw in a look at the next generation, by assessing 'players with less than 100 games who are already confirmed AFL-quality', and finally just a quick count of 'untested kids in the system'

Those four points together would give you an idea of what is actually going on at each club. The averages are pretty meaningless.

[george_on_the_outer 6,944]

3 hours ago, tiers said:

The late Dean Bailey used to say that a team needs 70 games together as a group to achieve success.

Brendon McCartney says that it takes 5 years to develop an AFL footballer.

Both happening now and not long to go. I will bide my time until their predictions synchronise.

I also agree with Little Goffy in his post when he says averages are pretty meaningless. 

Make it the average of your top 25 players and FND's analysis goes some way to showing that we still would have one of the youngest list that gets on the park each week.

To back up Tiers assessment, the actual stats are included here:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-12-01/senior-citizens-who-will-be-the-oldest-in-2018

If you look at the club list for 100+ game players, you will see that only Carlton and Gold Coast with 7, have fewer "experienced" players on their list than we do with only 8. 

Another out take from that list is which teams made finals.  Except for Essendon, the top 8 sides tended to have the highest number of those 100+ game players.  Hawthorn stands as an outlier, but the injuries to Rioli, Stratton, Frawley, Hodge, Gunston, Birchall and  Gibson during the season with Vickery a no show, would drop their number considerably and explains why they didn't make it.

Edited December 1, 2017 by george_on_the_outer

[Sir Why You Little 34,407]

3 hours ago, rjay said:

I posted this a few months back and thought it worth revisiting particularly with some of the rubbish stats that have been appearing in the media today.

If I'm reading his, Ben Darwin's "team work index" right then clubs like Port will really struggle in 2018. Bringing in so many players from other clubs particularly those that have been in the system for a while is a recipe for disaster. Players bring there own ways and those of the clubs they have left behind and it's hard to develop an integrated game plan in that situation.

I think we have approached it well in picking off players like Lever and not taking the scattergun approach of Port and in the past Collingwood. It looks good in the media and looks like you are being really proactive, I mean mental giants in the media have Port up there as a big chance...but lets wait and see.

This is a really interesting interview for anyone really interested in team sports and team building...well worth the time to have a listen.

 

I heard that interview with Ben. It was fascinating. 

Smart guy 

[beelzebub 22,225]

?pressure's on

Got to deliver now.

[Chook 14,389]

Flippin' finally! I've been waiting 10 years for this to be the case. As great as teenagers will tell you they are, the sad fact is that a man (even a non-ridgy-didge man) is vastly superior to even the most "promising" man-child.

[jackaub 1,402]

8 hours ago, Mazer Rackham said:

Being the youngest or least experienced list was always a mirage. It's not good, or bad, or anything meaningful. Certainly nothing to hang our hats on.

Only one statistic counts. Games won.

Rackham you are so right!!!!

Many on here have used it as an ongoing excuse for lack of heart and determination

NO MORE EXCUSES DEES

[Moonshadow 16,109]

10 hours ago, fndee said:

Agree. This is the list that best indicates where Melbourne may go

Hogan 23 y.o at the beginning of 2018 season. 51 games played

Salem 22 years 46 games

Petracca 22 years 39 games

Viney 24 years 88 games

Lever 22 years 56 games

Brayshaw 22 years 36 games

Tyson 24 years 90 games

Oliver 21 years 35 games

Stretch 21 years 36 games

ANB 22 years 34 games

Harmes 22 years 44 games

OMac 22 years 37 games

Jayden Short , 21 yo, 32 games
Daniel Rioli, 19 yo, 43 games
Jacob Townshend,  24 yo, 37 games
Kane Lambert, 26 yo, 52 games
Shai  Bolton , 29 yo, 6 games
Kamdrn Macintosh, 23 yo, 53 games
Nathan Broad, 24 yo 12 games
Connor Menedue, 21 yo 28 games
Nathan Drummond, 22 yo, 5 games
Dan Butler, 21 yo, 23 games
Jason Castagna, 21 yo, 30 games

It's about winning games and a flag, regardless of list age, talent or reputation 

Edited December 1, 2017 by Moonshadow