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List Analysis Potential v Reality

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I like many on here and in the press are expecting the Dees to substantially improve and at least make finals next year. The improvement other than Lever's inclusion is expected to come from assumptions that many of our players who haven't reached their potential yet will do so next year. For instance Jon Ralph wrote this week the Dees will win the flag if Petracca kicks 40 goals. So I thought I'd go through the list and break it down into players who have reached their potential and those who haven't reached their potential yet but we hope are going to next season. I've also loosely broken them down into positions but that is very fluid. It's also a useful exercise in working out list weaknesses for drafting. 

Will be interested to read people's opinions. I have included Oliver in players who have reached their potential because he's already playing at an outstanding level even though he clearly has a lot more improvement to go. So arguably he could go in either. Whereas I have put Tyson in the not reached potential yet because I think there's such a knock on his disposal that if he doesn't improve it he could well be moved on in the next couple of seasons. So arguably hasn't reached his full potential.

We are all hoping and expecting future stars like Hogan, Petracca, Brayshaw, Hunt & Salem go to the next level next year and be consistent high level performers to push us deep into finals. But the fact is "hoping" is the big question. None of them are there yet and whether some or all of them do or don't will decide the future success of the team. 

Players who are top 22 and have reached their potential

image.png.a075d63aebdf1d0b6bcfb3e2beb14d3a.png

image.png.e899c375b55ce7e221cdfdb181018518.png

 

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33 minutes ago, It's Time said:

I like many on here and in the press are expecting the Dees to substantially improve and at least make finals next year. The improvement other than Lever's inclusion is expected to come from assumptions that many of our players who haven't reached their potential yet will do so next year. For instance Jon Ralph wrote this week the Dees will win the flag if Petracca kicks 40 goals. So I thought I'd go through the list and break it down into players who have reached their potential and those who haven't reached their potential yet but we hope are going to next season. I've also loosely broken them down into positions but that is very fluid. It's also a useful exercise in working out list weaknesses for drafting. 

Will be interested to read people's opinions. I have included Oliver in players who have reached their potential because he's already playing at an outstanding level even though he clearly has a lot more improvement to go. So arguably he could go in either. Whereas I have put Tyson in the not reached potential yet because I think there's such a knock on his disposal that if he doesn't improve it he could well be moved on in the next couple of seasons. So arguably hasn't reached his full potential.

We are all hoping and expecting future stars like Hogan, Petracca, Brayshaw, Hunt & Salem go to the next level next year and be consistent high level performers to push us deep into finals. But the fact is "hoping" is the big question. None of them are there yet and whether some or all of them do or don't will decide the future success of the team. 

Players who are top 22 and have reached their potential

image.png.a075d63aebdf1d0b6bcfb3e2beb14d3a.png

image.png.e899c375b55ce7e221cdfdb181018518.png

 

its a good sign to see the 2nd and 3rd categories so well stacked. I generally agree and maybe Lewis and Vince will drop off a bit in their autumn years now.

 

I think the extra we will gain from Salem and Brayshaw will be more about getting them consistently on the park and performing. They already have both shown plenty. same goes for Hogan.

 

I also think Oliver can improve quite a bit in metres gained. so often he doesn't go forward almost by auto pilot. he could break games open more and become even better.

Edited by Bay Riffin
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I think that's a relatively fair assessment. Although, I believe that Viney, Oliver, Lever, and Gawn can take their games to a new level again.

They are at a point, however, which is probably more dependent on how the team around them performs as to how much further they develop. Likewise, the development of the others will be catalysed if the team as a whole, including the game plan or execution of it, improves.

Edited by ignition.
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46 minutes ago, It's Time said:

I like many on here and in the press are expecting the Dees to substantially improve and at least make finals next year. The improvement other than Lever's inclusion is expected to come from assumptions that many of our players who haven't reached their potential yet will do so next year. For instance Jon Ralph wrote this week the Dees will win the flag if Petracca kicks 40 goals. So I thought I'd go through the list and break it down into players who have reached their potential and those who haven't reached their potential yet but we hope are going to next season. I've also loosely broken them down into positions but that is very fluid. It's also a useful exercise in working out list weaknesses for drafting. 

Great list and talking point, I will say that while I agree a lot of our improvement will come from those yet to reach there potential, part of the optimism has to lie with so of those who have "reached their potential" actually doing so again. I'd argue that in 2017 Jones, Viney and Gawn had interrupted seasons which meant they only rarely reached their potential, so we'll also gain plenty from them.

I'd also move TMac to the 'haven't yet reached potential' area, if including him as a forward (or even swing-man), we know what he brings as a defender but I think they've only just started to explore his forward capabilities and with Hogan being fit his forward role would develop even further. 

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As a forward, Tom Mc hasn't reached his potential yet.  He has shown glimpses of "something", is it potential or just cameos?  I think potential.

Harmes has reached his ceiling in my opinion.  ANB, I think he may be the same.  I also think Hannan, even though he has been in the system for jus 12 months, I'm not sure how much there is left.  (Nb. This isn't necessarily a criticism of any of these players, because as it stands, they are more than serviceable "best 22", so it will take improvement from those lower than them to replace them, which is a good situation to be in).

I'm 12 months out from knowing about Stretch and JKH.  I think they have potential, but could end up being depth.  Stretch's attitude will at least give him the best possible chance to succeed.

I have concerns about Kent, Wagner and Weed.

 

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Interesting op I'm sure. Will read once I have time.

 

The idea that someone has reached their full potential is interesting, but I would suggest "full potential" couldn't be realised until a player has been tried in every position, playing every game plan.

 

A simple game plan change seemed to bring out the best in the entire Tigers list, which was nothing special at the start of the season. Buy-in and execution can make even a bog average player a premiership player.

 

Our list has some seriously talented players on it. If we could ever get our heads right, and figure out how to not lay down at crucial times, we will be unbeatable.

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Terrific analysis with some debatable items; however, we do need to think more about 'links' and 'avenues' from a team perspective. These are the things that made our 'great players' so great; the support that they received from '...whence the ball came...' were the keys to fantastic Demon football, across all of the past three decades.

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I think we have a number of potential AA graders in our side - Lever, Petracca, Oliver, Hogan, Viney and Gawn This gives you the core of a premiership team.  ( to add to Hibbo)

We have come along way in a very short time period - exciting times ahead. 

Yes, you should 100% be adding a GF guarantee to your membership now.... before you miss out. 

I will give you a tip, if we do make it what would you rather do 

a/ Come on here and say I got my grand final ticket thanks to the GFG

or 

b/ Come on here and complain you missed out?

Ball is in your court

 

Edited by DaveyDee
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Potential schmentzel

All that matters is that we have 38 players who are driven to get the best out of themselves. Jonesey, TMac, Viney are driven to win. While all players aren't the same, everyone needs to be on the same page when t comes to commitment to win. That's why you-know-who isn't here anymore. 

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BTW Bugg is underated on here.

Is a leading 3km time triallist with TMac, he has got talent that is arguably mis-directed at the moment. Gets to the ball and had he kicked 15 g 6b instead of 6g 15b from his 10 games we would be talking about him differently.

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I would think Lever, Viney and Oliver have a long way to go to reach their potential.

No way are they fully formed players yet...

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2 hours ago, It's Time said:

 

Will be interested to read people's opinions. I have included Oliver in players who have reached their potential because he's already playing at an outstanding level even though he clearly has a lot more improvement to go. So arguably he could go in either. Whereas I have put Tyson in the not reached potential yet because I think there's such a knock on his disposal that if he doesn't improve it he could well be moved on in the next couple of seasons. So arguably hasn't reached his full potential.

 

thanks for starting the thread, good read

I do disagree with the above though - Tyson is a classic 'reached his potential' for me. Foot skills are not something that generally get a lot better after 24yo. And Oliver has a lot of unfulfilled potential imo. he racks up possessions, but with experience he will soon dominate matches. take more marks, score goals, become a leader, develop better tank etc

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7 hours ago, jnrmac said:

BTW Bugg is underated on here.

Is a leading 3km time triallist with TMac, he has got talent that is arguably mis-directed at the moment. Gets to the ball and had he kicked 15 g 6b instead of 6g 15b from his 10 games we would be talking about him differently.

but he didnt. and most of his shots were gimmies.

has the talent no doubt but needs a better eye for goal to kick them when we need them.

Kent, too. Huge ceiling.

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8 hours ago, jnrmac said:

BTW Bugg is underated on here.

Is a leading 3km time triallist with TMac, he has got talent that is arguably mis-directed at the moment. Gets to the ball and had he kicked 15 g 6b instead of 6g 15b from his 10 games we would be talking about him differently.

I agree - his suspension really hurt our season.

Plays a role every week and gets the ball in dangerous areas

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16 hours ago, The Chazz said:

As a forward, Tom Mc hasn't reached his potential yet.  He has shown glimpses of "something", is it potential or just cameos?  I think potential.

Harmes has reached his ceiling in my opinion.  ANB, I think he may be the same.  I also think Hannan, even though he has been in the system for jus 12 months, I'm not sure how much there is left.  (Nb. This isn't necessarily a criticism of any of these players, because as it stands, they are more than serviceable "best 22", so it will take improvement from those lower than them to replace them, which is a good situation to be in).

I'm 12 months out from knowing about Stretch and JKH.  I think they have potential, but could end up being depth.  Stretch's attitude will at least give him the best possible chance to succeed.

I have concerns about Kent, Wagner and Weed.

 

I think both Harmes and ANB are still only 21 and haven’t played 50 games yet. Give them both another pre season and 20 more games each, then they will believe they are AFL players and build some confidence, then we can better judge them if they reached their respective peak.

I’ve read and heard from many sports people trying to break into professional sport, believing they are good enough and belong is one of the major hurdles to overcome! Just look at the Tigers this year, got on a roll, great run with injuries and a good draw, got used to winning, developed confidence, won a flag!

The most exciting thing about next year is 10 of our best 22, fall into the 20-22 age bracket, that will pass the 50 game bracket next year, all with major room for improvement. 2018, bring it on!

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1 hour ago, D4Life said:

I think both Harmes and ANB are still only 21 and haven’t played 50 games yet. Give them both another pre season and 20 more games each, then they will believe they are AFL players and build some confidence, then we can better judge them if they reached their respective peak.

I’ve read and heard from many sports people trying to break into professional sport, believing they are good enough and belong is one of the major hurdles to overcome! Just look at the Tigers this year, got on a roll, great run with injuries and a good draw, got used to winning, developed confidence, won a flag!

The most exciting thing about next year is 10 of our best 22, fall into the 20-22 age bracket, that will pass the 50 game bracket next year, all with major room for improvement. 2018, bring it on!

Harmed is an interesting one. I've just re-visited our last season round 21 match against StKilda where he kicked 3 first quarter goals and made himself very useful throughout the rest of the match.

Still young, still has great upside.

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Interesting topic

Pedo is best 22 on attitude alone. 

Attitude will decide how far this club goes. Goodwin has raised the bar by trading Watts. 

As yet we have no idea who is ready to go all the way. 

We will start to know next month...

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20 hours ago, It's Time said:

I like many on here and in the press are expecting the Dees to substantially improve and at least make finals next year. The improvement other than Lever's inclusion is expected to come from assumptions that many of our players who haven't reached their potential yet will do so next year. For instance Jon Ralph wrote this week the Dees will win the flag if Petracca kicks 40 goals. So I thought I'd go through the list and break it down into players who have reached their potential and those who haven't reached their potential yet but we hope are going to next season. I've also loosely broken them down into positions but that is very fluid. It's also a useful exercise in working out list weaknesses for drafting. 

Will be interested to read people's opinions. I have included Oliver in players who have reached their potential because he's already playing at an outstanding level even though he clearly has a lot more improvement to go. So arguably he could go in either. Whereas I have put Tyson in the not reached potential yet because I think there's such a knock on his disposal that if he doesn't improve it he could well be moved on in the next couple of seasons. So arguably hasn't reached his full potential.

We are all hoping and expecting future stars like Hogan, Petracca, Brayshaw, Hunt & Salem go to the next level next year and be consistent high level performers to push us deep into finals. But the fact is "hoping" is the big question. None of them are there yet and whether some or all of them do or don't will decide the future success of the team. 

Players who are top 22 and have reached their potential

image.png.a075d63aebdf1d0b6bcfb3e2beb14d3a.png

image.png.e899c375b55ce7e221cdfdb181018518.png

 

I think the only thing you’ve botched is saying Pedersen isn’t starting 22. He is 💯% starting 22. Hands are as good as Hogan’s reliable Kick has a massive tank and can play ruck. 

Hope he starts rd1 and makes Weiderman warm his spot. If the Weid starts rd1 on potential again I’ll be annoyed.

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Interesting OP (with the naturally expected quibbles as to player catergorisation). I keep a similar mental list concerning an overall idea of expected improvement - divided by individual gains, holds and decreases in form (based somewhat on proven potential and previous form). If the majority of the following occurs we'll be sitting very pretty.

Players who it's not unreasonable to expect an increased output on last season (including effectively 7 top-ten draft picks with quite a number of combined years in the system):

Lever

Viney

Hogan

Petracca

Oliver

Gawn

Salem

Brayshaw

Hunt

Omac

Frost

Maynard

J.Smith

Hannan

Vanders

Players who it's not unreasonable to expect will hold their most recent form:

Jones

Hibberd (AA)

Jetta (AA)

Tyson

Garlett

Pedo

Tmac

Melksham

ANB

Bugg

Harmes

That's 26. Plus some wild-cards like Weeds and Balic as well as our draftees.

Go Dees!

 

 

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1 hour ago, Dee Dee said:

Harmed is an interesting one. I've just re-visited our last season round 21 match against StKilda where he kicked 3 first quarter goals and made himself very useful throughout the rest of the match.

Still young, still has great upside.

I recall Grigic and Cuthbertson played a good game once...

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1 hour ago, dieter said:

I recall Grigic and Cuthbertson played a good game once...

I recall Cuthbertson kicking a bag against Collingwood one day, but that was it. However Eddie loved him and said he should have been playing for the Pies!

Grigic's another matter. He played a good game for Melbourne at centre half forward against- not sure, but then played a very good game against Melbourne for a victorious Geelong side, so, at least a couple of good games before his lack of ability became truly apparent.

Harmes has more up side I believe, and has not reached his full potential as yet. He's not going to be an A grader but decent B grade is not beyond his capabilities.

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2 hours ago, MudDogs Gawn Win.. someday said:

I think the only thing you’ve botched is saying Pedersen isn’t starting 22. He is 💯% starting 22. Hands are as good as Hogan’s reliable Kick has a massive tank and can play ruck. 

Hope he starts rd1 and makes Weiderman warm his spot. If the Weid starts rd1 on potential again I’ll be annoyed.

I'd like to agree with you and without question his best is best 22 but his problem which he has admitted and which Paul Roos mentioned is his inconsistency. He had a purple patch and I thought he'd really finally arrived but then in the last month he vanished again especially when we really needed him to stand up. That's the reason I don't have him best 22 and that's the reason he'll be gone if the Weid come through. The only hope is that he works out why he played so well for those couple of games and can make that consistent. 

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2 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

Interesting topic

Pedo is best 22 on attitude alone. 

Attitude will decide how far this club goes. Goodwin has raised the bar by trading Watts. 

As yet we have no idea who is ready to go all the way. 

We will start to know next month...

Attitude alone won't save Pedders. His problem is consistency. He's admitted this himself. He covered himself in glory for a few weeks and then dropped off badly at the end of the season. I don't know if that's an attitude problem or something else. If he knew he'd fix it. 

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58 minutes ago, It's Time said:

Attitude alone won't save Pedders. His problem is consistency. He's admitted this himself. He covered himself in glory for a few weeks and then dropped off badly at the end of the season. I don't know if that's an attitude problem or something else. If he knew he'd fix it. 

Agree, he takes some great marks, competes hard, seems to have a really good attitude, but perhaps his consistency issue relates to being good, but possibly not quite good enough. But is okay as a depth player.

He played a few really good games last year and hopefully can do the same next year when he gets a chance.

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