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The 2018 Fixture Thread

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Just now, titan_uranus said:

I quoted you because I agree with you - every game is winnable (as we sit here in October).

But the consequence of that is that analysing the draw based on difficulty is less meangingful as inevitably we’ll be wrong about teams (eg 2017 Richmond or 2017 Dogs). 

And because of that, I think analysing any club’s draw at this point is more about those other factors and less about the 5 repeat match ups each team gets.

Well,  from my point of view I don't see any super-teams out there so we only have to be a fair bit above average to have a shot at the top 4 - 6.  Winning the flag is a whole new step altogether but getting into contention isn't all that difficult.  In the current climate,  a team just needs 10 or 12 good players and a buy-in from the rest (to a winning game plan such as what we witnessed with the Tigers & Bulldogs)

And I don't see any team becoming a super-team in a hurry either ... the draft,  salary cap and the 2 new teams have seen to that. 

So,  if I'm right,  where do we sit? 

Do we have 10-12 good players?  3 or 4 years ago I would have struggled to come up with 3 or 4 names. 

I'll speculate again - 12 good players ...

Jones,  Oliver,  Gawn,  Viney,  Lewis,  T-Mac,  Jetta,  Hibberd,  Lever.  Petracca,  Hunt & Tyson.  Some would argue on a few of the choices and that's fair enough too.  Each to their own. 

Then we've got Salem,  Garlett,  Vince,  Frost,  Brayshaw,  ANB,  Oscar and a few others who can (or might) step up.  Plus, the 4 new draftees.   Surely there is one diamond in the rough.  

All the games are winnable but we need to win at least 14 of them.  And that is possible.  Not probable but you never know.  There isn't a team out there that we should fear. 

We need a good run with injuries too ... this past season was a disaster in terms of continuity. 

My philosophy has always been that X amount of good players often equates to X amount of wins (as long as the coaching is top notch as well)

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2 minutes ago, Macca said:

Well,  from my point of view I don't see any super-teams out there so we only have to be a fair bit above average to have a shot at the top 4 - 6.  Winning the flag is a whole new step altogether but getting into contention isn't all that difficult.  In the current climate,  a team just needs 10 or 12 good players and a buy-in from the rest (to a winning game plan such as what we witnessed with the Tigers & Bulldogs)

And I don't see any team becoming a super-team in a hurry either ... the draft,  salary cap and the 2 new teams have seen to that. 

So,  if I'm right,  where do we sit? 

Do we have 10-12 good players?  3 or 4 years ago I would have struggled to come up with 3 or 4 names. 

I'll speculate again - 12 good players ...

Jones,  Oliver,  Gawn,  Viney,  Lewis,  T-Mac,  Jetta,  Hibberd,  Lever.  Petracca,  Hunt & Tyson.  Some would argue on a few of the choices and that's fair enough too.  Each to their own. 

Then we've got Salem,  Garlett,  Vince,  Frost,  Brayshaw,  ANB,  Oscar and a few others who can (or might) step up.  Plus, the 4 new draftees.   Surely there is one diamond in the rough.  

All the games are winnable but we need to win at least 14 of them.  And that is possible.  Not probable but you never know.  There isn't a team out there that we should fear. 

We need a good run with injuries too ... this past season was a disaster in terms of continuity. 

My philosophy has always been that X amount of good players often equates to X amount of wins (as long as the coaching is top notch as well)

Good analysis.

The flip side is that because all sides are even the chances of building sustained success are minimal. Thus financial survival/improvement becomes even more important. To do that we need an uncompromised draw that gives us a reasonable chance of attracting supporters, sponsors etc.

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The evening before Anzac Day is akin to a Friday evening game. People will go because they have the next day off work.

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Just now, Diamond_Jim said:

Good analysis.

The flip side is that because all sides are even the chances of building sustained success are minimal. Thus financial survival/improvement becomes even more important. To do that we need an uncompromised draw that gives us a reasonable chance of attracting supporters, sponsors etc.

I agree on the financial side of things.  PJ has added the Richmond ANZAC eve fixture as a staple and we should be doing the same with the round 1 Geelong clash.  Future deals can also be done with the Hawks,  Dons & Blues.  But right now,  things are a long way off being ideal. 

As for on field,  identifying,  developing & keeping talent is something we've been poor at previously but we've improved markedly of late. 

The aim should always be to have a super-list of players and if we ever get to the stage where we have an excess of good players who we can't all keep or satisfy,  we can therefore become (in theory) a dominant player during the trade period.  Good players generally don't come cheap nor are they sold off cheaply. 

It's possible to get to the top and stay at the top but you have to be extremely clued up to do so.  We've seen it in more recent times with the Lions,  Cats,  Swans & Hawks.  The Lions eventually fell away and in the end, lost their way.  The other 3 are still thereabouts.

 

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My key metric looking at this draw was the number of back to back 6 day breaks and on that measure my scan so far suggests we have done pretty well.  Perhaps it was coincidence, but I recon it was the back to back to back 6 day breaks in the middle of last season that pretty much smashed our season and put us behind the eight ball to make finals there after.

In 2018, we get an 8 day break before Queens Birthday, followed by 12 days due to our bye, then from memory another 8 day break or something there after.  We do have a short 5 or something day break following our Anzac Eve game, but we will be backing up against Essendon who have one day less break than us, so I think that more than compensates for having that short day break.  Apart from that, I think we have the inevitable odd six day break here or there, but never that shocking run we had of them in the middle of last year.

Edited by Rodney (Balls) Grinter
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After the fiasco of our final-round exit last season, Peter Jackson and the AFL have clearly colluded to ensure we become the first team in history to secure a finals' berth before the bye.

Go Dees!

Edited by Skuit
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So I haven’t had a fully in depth look at the draw but from what I can see it’s a bit better than last year for the fact that we don’t have that insane back to back to back 6 day break plus travel from Perth. 

One thing that does annoy me is the exposure we will be missing out on again. Now I’ll aknowlege we’ve got our Tuesday ANZAC eve match which will be a good one for our coffers and our usual QB Monday match, but yet again the AFL refuse to place us in the coveted Friday/Saturday night fixtures. Our only Friday night game being away to Port, while we get 4 Saturday games of which only one is home and it’s in Darwin. 

I realise it’s not an easy thing for them to do making the fixture but I’m sick of us constantly getting shafted on the commercial side. 

It’ll take us wining back to back premierships before they give us a good commercial draw. 

Edited by Pates

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1 hour ago, america de cali said:

The punctuation in that link hurts me.

The content therein, not so much. Concur greatly, unfortunately.

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Financially:
12/21 on FTA - Good
Q'Bday and Anzac Eve - Good
Very few Thurs/Fri nights - bad
No etihad home game - good
Our first 6 MCG home games come against Vic sides, should average 45k+ to those games and bank profits - good

Football:
Repeat against Geel, Adel, St K, WB, GC - Ok, not too unfair - Saints and Dogs could be the same as this year, Crows almost certain to go backwards, Cats a good test
4/5 at the G to start - Great! 
3 finalists in the first 9 games and all of those in Melbourne.
3/4 at the G to finish - nice, not too much travel leading in to finals
Only 11 games at the G - yuck

All in all I don't think it's as bad as some are making out.

Silver lining on getting screwed on Friday night games and extra Sunday's = no players going out on the beers after Friday nights and getting in trouble!
 

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Think the AFL may have caught wind of Viney and Lever going toe-to-toe in the ring, and with Tomas Bugg fresh in mind, thought it perhaps best to keep us out of the prime-time slots. Bring on Unsociable Sundays!

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8 minutes ago, Skuit said:

Think the AFL may have caught wind of Viney and Lever going toe-to-toe in the ring, and with Tomas Bugg fresh in mind, thought it perhaps best to keep us out of the prime-time slots. Bring on Unsociable Sundays!

Someone here once said that they liked the Sunday games because at least their whole weekend wasn't ruined by a loss on the Friday or Saturday.  Made perfect sense at the time too. 

We've got 7 Sunday free-to-air games next season so we may as well embrace it and make the best of it.  Like others,  I don't mind the time slot.  These days,  any game on a Saturday afternoon is never on free-to-air

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2 minutes ago, Macca said:

Someone here once said that they liked the Sunday games because at least their whole weekend wasn't ruined by a loss on the Friday or Saturday.  Made perfect sense at the time too. 

We've got 7 Sunday free-to-air games next season so we may as well embrace it and make the best of it.  Like others,  I don't mind the time slot.  These days,  any game on a Saturday afternoon is never on free-to-air

And with us playing on Sundays in cuts down on the news-cycle before our weekly rectory session at the tribunal.

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Living in central Queensland and only seeing a live game once every few years, it's basically a T.V sport to me, and I have Foxtel, so every game is live.

 

For me its more of a commercial thing, as well as the emotional investment of getting the absolute shtis seeing the same power clubs dominate the prime slots even when they are a non-entity come finals time.

It really is time with this coming season.

Win everywhere, and demand the prime time spots the following season. It's already been shown with the Bulldogs that win a flag, and you get commercial reward.

If we have minimal short breaks, which we do, that's a huge reason for a whinge that has been removed.

Overall, I'm not that unhappy with the draw, apart from wanting Colonwood and Carlton to get the hell off OUR ground.

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If we can beat Geelong at the G round 1 we will win the first 4 games.......Essendon off a 5 day break..why them!??....loss for sure....a pretty tough run to the final I would have thought. Been a long time since we played Geelong twice....better draw than last year, still hate Darwin and it should be before our bye round

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1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

If we can beat Geelong at the G round 1 we will win the first 4 games.......Essendon off a 5 day break..why them!??....loss for sure....a pretty tough run to the final I would have thought. Been a long time since we played Geelong twice....better draw than last year, still hate Darwin and it should be before our bye round

The only option as a fellow mid-week ANZAC combatant Wadda. And they come off a four-day break. In all likelihood will be a horrible game like last year, but there's no reason to think we won't run over the top of them again.

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45 minutes ago, Macca said:

Someone here once said that they liked the Sunday games because at least their whole weekend wasn't ruined by a loss on the Friday or Saturday.  Made perfect sense at the time too. 

We've got 7 Sunday free-to-air games next season so we may as well embrace it and make the best of it.  Like others,  I don't mind the time slot.  These days,  any game on a Saturday afternoon is never on free-to-air

Dont know if it was me who mentioned it when you read it, but thats something I've always said.

After an early weekend loss I just want to forget about footy for a few days and so find it hard to enjoy watching any other games in the round. Often dont even feel like going to the local footy!

Bring on Sundays! 

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1 minute ago, JTR said:

Dont know if it was me who mentioned it when you read it, but thats something I've always said.

After an early weekend loss I just want to forget about footy for a few days and so find it hard to enjoy watching any other games in the round. Often dont even feel like going to the local footy!

Bring on Sundays! 

Think I'm right in saying that we first switched to playing a lot on Sunday's was when Diamond Joe was Pres. 

And didn't North initiate the whole Friday night footy thing? ... no representation at all for them this time around except for Good Friday. 

Maybe the smaller Victorian clubs could band together and put some proposals to the AFL?  I'm not sure any of us would mind playing the Saints,  Bulldogs and/or North on a Friday or Saturday night (with free-to-air coverage)

PJ needs to find more ways of getting a decent deal ... in saying that he has landed the ANZAC eve fixture and the home game in round 1 against the Cats are terrific steps in the right direction.  And the 800k per game negotiated with the NT Government is another great deal (from a financial viewpoint)

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14 hours ago, DSP said:

Got stiffed again on Friday night games.

And plenty of train trips on Sunday yet again.

Meh.

We get queens bday and Anzac eve both of which are much bigger than Friday night. Taking those into account we have 1 x Friday night game and 2 additional blockbuster games. No complaints from me 

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1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

If we can beat Geelong at the G round 1 we will win the first 4 games.......Essendon off a 5 day break..why them!??....loss for sure....a pretty tough run to the final I would have thought. Been a long time since we played Geelong twice....better draw than last year, still hate Darwin and it should be before our bye round

Essendon are coming off a 4 day break.... 

loss??? Our manic game style suits etihad. 

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4 hours ago, Macca said:

Absolute,  not certain.  That's the word I'd use.

We should never be included in the argument.  And by us I mean the supporters & members.  But unfortunately,  we will bear the brunt of the blame. 

It's bs but that's the way people think.  It's all part of the whole bragging rights stuff that goes on in sport.  From the top down so you're right about the AFL & the TV stations. 

As previously stated,  the club will need a sustained period of success before we start getting any favours.  And that's out of our hands.  Whatever will be,  will be. 

As for us members & supporters,  we'll always be there.

 

 

I'm going for the old conspiracy theory - this year will be Jacksons last - so the AFL is prepared to test the water and see if we are capable of standing on our own two feet. 

If we smash memberships and crowd numbers this year they will allow us to elect our own CEO and board. 

If we return poor membership numbers and crowds AFL will install another nominated professional football administrator ( AKA PJ mark 2 ) and no vote for the members in the composition of the board.  

Fun times ahead. 

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11 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

Essendon are coming off a 4 day break.... 

loss??? Our manic game style suits etihad. 

Agree. That early in the season, before we have any excuse to "Fade", we should belt the living suitcase outa of the Injectors.

Pencil in the 4 points.

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8 hours ago, Macca said:

Any game is winnable ... especially round 1 against the Cats. 

The Tigers will fall away too - they'll come right back to the field unless they get an extremely good run with injuries again.  Hangovers happen too.

I just ran across our first dozen games to a mate (a non Demon) and he has our toughest game being Essendon in round 6 followed by the Crows in round 10.  Then the Tigers and then the Cats. 

A better way to look at it is nominating an absolutely certain loss in that fixture.

Our fixture is not a tough one ... unless we regress.

 

 

 

.

Agree with you we'll win games we don't expect to and drop games we should win.

I wont be surprised if Meth Coast with a big lisy turnover and an injection of younger players  are close to cooked by Round 22 and I expect Freo to be the more difficult of both the WA sides next season so I don't see that as a negative having to only play Meth Coast in Perth

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13 hours ago, McQueen said:

However, even another away Friday night game would've been nice.

My understanding is that it's less about gate receipts and more about sponsorship.

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How about this crap from the AFL website: under the heading of “The 24 must watch games of 2018”:

Round one, Richmond v Carlton
MCG, Thursday night

“This looms as the biggest season opener Richmond and Carlton have faced off in since it became a traditional clash. The Tigers will unveil their flag to their faithful supporters, who will probably still be delirious. It will also be the first time the teams have played since Bachar Houli left Jed Lamb unconscious after collecting the Blue with his left forearm in round 14. “

WHAT???

The 2017 premiers vs a team that finished in the bottom 4??

How is this a must watch game? 

Edited by Diamond
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13 hours ago, Macca said:

Good teams win anywhere BC ... we've got 15 games in Melb/Vic which is 3 more than any of the teams outside of Victoria get in their home states.  And compared to a lot of other major sports,  the amount of games that the majority of our supporters can actually attend is quite high.

Don't forget that the members receive 2 games as compensation for the NT exercise.  It's my belief that the NT games are here to stay and PJ may well be able to broker an even better financial deal from the arrangement. 

One could argue that we're traveling interstate on our own terms (albeit for a percentage of those interstate games)

 

 

 

 

.

If PJ is to agree to an extension on f the NT deal, I believe one absolute stipulation must be that the Darwin game is always without question played prior to a bye. 

There can be no reason other than AFL bloody mindedness that we never get our bye after that game, and we are always stuffed after it.  (I haven’t done any analysis of our opponents’ performances the following week)

The Alice Springs game is really no more taxing, maybe less so, than a trip to Adelaide, Perth, Sydnet or Brisbane so a bye after that is no big deal. 

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