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Mel Bourne

Worrying Stats

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4 hours ago, Gorgoroth said:

We OVER handball, thats fact. But the biggest problem is those handballs are 1 meter to another player under the same pressure. The ol Cam Bruce special. 

Or handballed to a player's ankles. 

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6 hours ago, kurtneverdied said:

Exactly how I have been feeling.
We can not put away teams, which is really concerning for this years prospects anyway.

I have a feeling that we might play Sydney in Sydney if we make it through.

 

We certainly wont be putting them away in our current form.

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11 hours ago, rufus said:

The contested marks are the biggest worry for me. We are building a competitive, effective midfield that COULD get us in a position to compete at the top in the next few years. However, we are going to miss our chance if we can't find one or even two reliable tall defenders who can be effective in a genuine one on one (and by effective I mean simply being able to half the contest). At the moment, if a team brings it in high and gets some isolation it feels like a score almost every  time.

Huge credit to Goodwin. To my mind, he has done a magnificent job getting us to 12 wins this year.

Some people on here like to deny facts.

Facts are:

1. teams score 53% of the time they enter our fwd 50 - last in the AFL

2. We lose 35% of defensive one on ones - last in the AFL

Some people think this is the midfield (!) Go figure. Its clear to me watching the games that we are very poor when the ball comes in to our defensive 50. While midfield pressure will have something to do with the way the ball is coming in, the way the stat is measured means that a defensive one on one is only counted that way when both players have a reasonable chance of getting the ball. In other words it doesn't count when the ball comes in quickly to a fwd and the defender hasn't got a realistic chance of spoling the ball or gaining posession.

 Now we know that Hibberd and Jetta are greta one on one players. Possibly AA. So what does that leave? Frost and OMac. Some come on here to say OMac is gun and has improved "out of sight" this year. There is no doubt that he has improved but he is still a massive liability one one one. That's why we need Lever. 

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The best stats to follow imo are:

Contested possessions/uncontested possessions

Clearances

Inside 50s

Inside 50 efficiency (scoring shots from inside 50s)

Scoring efficiency (accuracy)

Score for/against

All year we have been good at contested possession, clearances and inside 50s. We have had heaps of uncontested possessions as expected from being handball happy.

Our biggest issues are poor inside 50 efficiency, mainly from bombing it long repeatedly with no affect except turning it over. Some of best wins came from not doing this and hitting up great options (adelaide game for example)

Another main issue is score against from turnovers, we shoot ourselves in the foot way too often with turnovers, undoing good work very quickly.

Half of the potential winning formula is there, but we need major help with the following to win a flag:

Going inside 50

Handball game + turnovers. As others have said, choosing the right option and taking the right time to make it is a major issue.

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17 hours ago, Mel Bourne said:

G'day all,

Long-time reader, first-time poster. 

I know stats aren't something to get bogged down in, but after watching recent games and noticing certain patterns emerging, I decided to investigate some specific stats. Namely disposals vs disposal efficiency. We currently No. 1 in disposals (great to be at the top of something!) yet 14th in disposal efficiency. To me that says "doing everything the hard way". The handball-at-all-costs thing is sometimes very effective, but it seems to be the default mode of play, even when it is so painfully obvious that it isn't the right option. I know yelling "kick it" at the TV often flies in the face of what the team should actually be doing at the time (maintaining possession). It's an amateur piece of advice. But man, I'm yelling it a lot lately.

Oh and what I said about it being good to be No.1 at something, unfortunately we're also No.1 in clangers at present ?

And languishing at 16th for contested marks. We are sorely lacking in mid-field targets. I can't help but feel these are the things holding us back from being a league-conquering team.

That, and just being a bit [censored] sometimes (sorry boys, I love ya. 43 years is a long freakin time to wait for a flag though, so I'm allowed to give you some [censored], right?)

 

 

 

 

From memory last year that the Bulldogs had the highest possessions per game in the competition at just over 400 and Sydney had the second highest at around 390. Both were all time records I think. 

Being first in the competition for disposals is not such a bad thing.

 

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2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Some people on here like to deny facts.

Facts are:

1. teams score 53% of the time they enter our fwd 50 - last in the AFL

2. We lose 35% of defensive one on ones - last in the AFL

Some people think this is the midfield (!) Go figure. Its clear to me watching the games that we are very poor when the ball comes in to our defensive 50. While midfield pressure will have something to do with the way the ball is coming in, the way the stat is measured means that a defensive one on one is only counted that way when both players have a reasonable chance of getting the ball. In other words it doesn't count when the ball comes in quickly to a fwd and the defender hasn't got a realistic chance of spoling the ball or gaining posession.

 Now we know that Hibberd and Jetta are greta one on one players. Possibly AA. So what does that leave? Frost and OMac. Some come on here to say OMac is gun and has improved "out of sight" this year. There is no doubt that he has improved but he is still a massive liability one one one. That's why we need Lever. 

Wow is that fact? I believe our defence is lacking but I didn't expect it to the worst in the competition!

We have improved this year for sure. Last year, it was shocking when teams were getting the ball out the back and waltzing into goals time and time again.

Other supporters here should take note of these stats. Definitely a big weakness of our team. At least our knowledgeable recruiters make the choices not us fans.

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18 hours ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Knowing when to play on and handball as opposed to stopping and hitting a loose target needs to be addressed.

When we were 32 points up, if we kicked more (kept attacking) and didn't just handpass at every opportunity we probably would have won by a lot more.

I reckon that had nothing to do with it at all.

The handballing was setting up fast ball movement which led to three goals in 5 minutes.

When we hit 32 points up, we went away from that by being cute. It wasn't an overemphasis on the handball that suddenly changed the momentum. It was our inability to continue to do precisely what had put us 32 points up, which involved repeated handball.

But the issue, as identified in this thread, is one of balance. We play our best football when we use the handpass properly but that also involves knowing when to stop the chain and kick.

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2 hours ago, worldwideweb_demon said:

Wow is that fact? I believe our defence is lacking but I didn't expect it to the worst in the competition!

We have improved this year for sure. Last year, it was shocking when teams were getting the ball out the back and waltzing into goals time and time again.

Other supporters here should take note of these stats. Definitely a big weakness of our team. At least our knowledgeable recruiters make the choices not us fans.

Yep. Was correct up to round 20. Doesn't include the last 2 games

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15 hours ago, Mel Bourne said:

Cheers Skuit!

My understanding of disposal efficiency is the percentage of disposals that find their intended target, or at least works to the team's advantage. 

Basically it's the amount of times you make that pained, frustrated groan when one of your team's disposals lands in the hands of the other's. 

 

 

Oh - okay. Just your standard DE% then (which most agree can be a fairly misleading stat to begin with). The more disposals you have and the more you try and break the lines the more you're likely to muck them up I suppose. Hence the top players in the league having the worst DE%.  Good thing for us, according to having the highest number of possessions, is that we then go and get the ball back and go again. Fast ball movement and risky options. Frustrating but fun.

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For mine, the team has been unsettled nearly all season. They've done well to be 12 and 9 with everything that has occurred throughout (injuries, , the lack of cohesion and inconsistency as a result.

Yes it's frustrating the turnovers, the skill errors. 

The whole gang looks to be getting back together. Ie. Viney, Watts, Bugg.

And Goodwin has versatility at his disposal. Timing is everything and getting your loads done in the lead up to finals is critical. 

Getting through the Collingwood game with a great hit out, unscathed, and the 4 pts would be ideal. 

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9 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

I reckon that had nothing to do with it at all.

The handballing was setting up fast ball movement which led to three goals in 5 minutes.

When we hit 32 points up, we went away from that by being cute. It wasn't an overemphasis on the handball that suddenly changed the momentum. It was our inability to continue to do precisely what had put us 32 points up, which involved repeated handball.

But the issue, as identified in this thread, is one of balance. We play our best football when we use the handpass properly but that also involves knowing when to stop the chain and kick.

Thank you for arguing my point.

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It's  often been said in commentary that as soon as our handball vs kicking ratio goes out that's when we start to turn to poo. I think the idea of our play is to have about 2-3 linking handball chains to set up kicks further up the field. Problem is it comes driven from a "play on at all costs" mentality, I think we're number 1 (or close to it) for playing on from marks. When that's working it looks breathtaking, but a few too many times (particularly recently) we've played on with nowhere to go which creates the frenetic handballing game, and a lot of turnovers.

With our players getting tired from a long season I think this needs to be tempered a bit. It's causing situations that are unnecessarily frantic, and all too often leads to turnovers. 

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22 hours ago, Maldonboy38 said:

I still consider marking to be the most important skill in the game after kicking because it gives the team 5 - 7 seconds to set up and/or move and no one can touch the ball carrier. It is a free hit.

On the other hand, it also allows the opposing side to cover their men elsewhere on the field, as opposed to playing on quickly that can catch the opposition out of position. A static marking game plan does not appear to me to be particularly more productive.

We also have to be careful with some of these team ranking stats. Sometimes there is only a few percentage points between 1st and 18th in the league.

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2 minutes ago, mauriesy said:

On the other hand, it also allows the opposing side to cover their men elsewhere on the field, as opposed to playing on quickly that can catch the opposition out of position. A static marking game plan does not appear to me to be particularly more productive.

This is a key point and something I have been banging on about for a long time now.

If a player takes a mark and is clear, then by all means play on and keep the ball moving to get the ball forward as quickly as possible. That's the best outcome. A player should know within about one second of marking if they are clear to play on.

However, if the player can't play on quickly because there is an opponent nearby or there is no one forward of the ball to kick it to, then they need to get directly back behind the mark quickly.

By getting back behind the mark quickly, the player gives himself maximum space and time to then execute a kick under minimal pressure.

Too often we see Melbourne players get caught halfway between playing on and getting back behind the mark meaning that they drift off their line forcing the umpire to call play on, kick the ball too close to the man on the mark or they play on while the opposition are still clearing the space putting themselves under completely unnecessary pressure.

We just need to strike that balance better of knowing when to go and knowing when to get back to take the time to dispose of the ball, but most importantly not getting caught in this no man's land of neither playing on or getting back behind the mark. To be more exact, we need to be better at this once the ball is forward of the centre because when we have a mark in this part of the ground then it should almost always result in a forward fifty entry and again unless the player with the ball is clear and there are clear targets ahead to kick it to, I would much rather our players get back and give themselves as much time and space as possible to execute their skills.

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15 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Some people on here like to deny facts.

Facts are:

1. teams score 53% of the time they enter our fwd 50 - last in the AFL

2. We lose 35% of defensive one on ones - last in the AFL

Some people think this is the midfield (!) Go figure. Its clear to me watching the games that we are very poor when the ball comes in to our defensive 50. While midfield pressure will have something to do with the way the ball is coming in, the way the stat is measured means that a defensive one on one is only counted that way when both players have a reasonable chance of getting the ball. In other words it doesn't count when the ball comes in quickly to a fwd and the defender hasn't got a realistic chance of spoling the ball or gaining posession.

 Now we know that Hibberd and Jetta are greta one on one players. Possibly AA. So what does that leave? Frost and OMac. Some come on here to say OMac is gun and has improved "out of sight" this year. There is no doubt that he has improved but he is still a massive liability one one one. That's why we need Lever. 

 

Those stats should be pinned on all threads discussing the quality of our key defenders.

Take note @binman and @Vogon Poetry

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Statistics are what you want them to be. Our great game is being devoured by over analysis of mostly nonsense statistics. The only statistics that matter are the ones on the scoreboard.

If we can win matches by having the least of the "good stats" and the most of the "bad stats" then I am all for staying the course. For example, if our defensive stats are "last in the AFL' but we are still wiinning them perhaps our "attacking stats" must be near the best. Who cares so long as we win.

However there is one statistic that does bother me greatly and yet it seems not to be recorded. It counts the number of times a team enters the forward line in a superior position to score and then doesn't score at all and, worse still, concedes possession. It is not the same as some other more sophisticated stats such as turnovers or clangers and does not depend on the opposition. It is like a self inflicted wound and a wasted effort.

I recall a kick that fell between three demons on Sunday, collected by one who could not score from 20m in front and let the opposition take an uncontested mark.

Correct this one failing, and I believe that we can be more dominant in all games and dramatically increase our chances of winning.

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37 minutes ago, stevethemanjordan said:

 

Those stats should be pinned on all threads discussing the quality of our key defenders.

Take note @binman and @Vogon Poetry

Steve you're become a bore.  Why should our key defenders take note when for the last 5 games key forwards haven't scored much against us.  Why not Jetta, Hibberd, Hunt, Vince and others that rotate through the backline?  Why not the midfield for not rolling back quicker and putting pressure on?

You're one of the individuals here who can only see things in black and white.  You're like the bloke in N12 who hurls abuse at the players all game except you do it here to our key backs.  You have a view and that's fine but it's not really based on fact and you've nailed yourself to the mast so you look at every opportunity to further your view.  Sadly your view is now worthless because it lacks any impartiality. 

Quote

I'll be counting how many unforced errors both McDonald bros and Frost make that directly result in opposition scoring shots.

And remember this?  It was before the Adelaide game, you know, the team with the best attack in the competition.  They managed 9 goals against us at the Adelaide Oval.  Never saw your summary but assume the answer was nine.

Get a grip man, you're not doing yourself any favours with your constant attacks.  We all know the arguments, we'll all make our own judgements.  Shouting your view from the roof tops won't convince us and doesn't make your view more valid.  It just reeks of desperation.

 

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1 hour ago, stevethemanjordan said:

 

Those stats should be pinned on all threads discussing the quality of our key defenders.

Take note @binman and @Vogon Poetry

Really you are losing all credibility steve. 

Funny you should rail at being misquoted on no 28 being a dud given you say that i am 'confident Oscar will develop into a great key defender'. i have never said such a thing.

All i ever done is rebut your incorrect assertions about his ability.

Among other things you have claimed Tmac's younger brother is not AFL standard, can't spoil (though it went from not at all, to spoils into the corridor to doesn't 'kill' spoils), is slow (of mind and foot), hopeless one on one, no vision, only in the side because of circumstance etc etc and more recently you could not even concede he is a good player. You can't mention Lever without mentioning no 26's supposed weaknesses.

I vowed not to enter into any more argument about no 28 as quite frankly the argument is done and dusted. And i won it. No 28  has done all the talking for me. So i won't bother rehashing it.

But I'll tell you what, i'll give you (and jnrmac if he wants to play) an opportunity.  An opportunity to put your money where your key board is. So to speak. Let's make a wager.

I bet that Tmac's younger brother will make top 10 in the best and fairest. You bet he doesn't. The winner of the bet can choose the avatar of the loser from the day after the best and fairest until after the second round.

Please don't give me any nonsense about a top 10 in the bluey not proving anything. The best and fairest and is judged by the match committee. Paid football professionals. It is not an encouragement award.

We are going to make the finals. No player with the many weaknesses you think no 28 has finishes top 10 in an AFL side that makes the finals. Perhaps in years gone past at the dees but not this year. A top 10 finish in the bluey would be irrefutable evidence he is considered by the match committee to be a good player. And with all due respect i value their assessment more than yours. 

So do we have a bet? (and Jnr mac happy to have a side bet)

 

Edited by binman

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53 minutes ago, Vogon Poetry said:

Steve you're become a bore.  Why should our key defenders take note when for the last 5 games key forwards haven't scored much against us.  Why not Jetta, Hibberd, Hunt, Vince and others that rotate through the backline?  Why not the midfield for not rolling back quicker and putting pressure on?

Its not the midfielders job to win one on one defensive contests. If the defenders can't win or neutralise the majority of contests then they aren't very good defenders. Pretty simople really. Not sure why you are struggling with that.

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50 minutes ago, binman said:

Really you are losing all credibility steve. 

Funny you should rail at being misquoted on no 26 being a dud given you say that i am 'confident Oscar will develop into a great key defender'. i have never said such a thing.

All i ever done is rebut your incorrect assertions about his ability.

Among other things you have claimed Tmac's younger brother is not AFL standard, can't spoil (though it went from not at all, to spoils into the corridor to doesn't 'kill' spoils), is slow (of mind and foot), hopeless one on one, no vision, only in the side because of circumstance etc etc and more recently you could not even concede he is a good player. You can't mention Lever without mentioning no 26's supposed weaknesses.

I vowed not to enter into any more argument about no 26 as quite frankly the argument is done and dusted. And i won it. No 26 has done all the talking for me. So i won't bother rehashing it.

But I'll tell you what, i'll give you (and jnrmac if he wants to play) an opportunity.  An opportunity to put your money where your key board is. So to speak. Let's make a wager.

I bet that Tmac's younger brother will make top 10 in the best and fairest. You bet he doesn't. The winner of the bet can choose the avatar of the loser from the day after the best and fairest until after the second round.

Please don't give me any nonsense about a top 10 in the bluey not proving anything. The best and fairest and is judged by the match committee. Paid football professionals. It is not an encouragement award.

We are going to make the finals. No player with the many weaknesses you think no 26 has finishes top 10 in an AFL side that makes the finals. Perhaps in years gone past at the dees but not this year. A top 10 finish in the bluey would be irrefutable evidence he is considered by the match committee to be a good player. And with all due respect i value their assessment more than yours. 

So do we have a bet? (and Jnr mac happy to have a side bet)

 

Talk about credibility. What has Sam Weideman got to do with this?

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1 minute ago, jnrmac said:

Its not the midfielders job to win one on one defensive contests. If the defenders can't win or neutralise the majority of contests then they aren't very good defenders. Pretty simople really. Not sure why you are struggling with that.

Jnr settle.  I was referring to both stats.  There is another one that said " 1. teams score 53% of the time they enter our fwd 50 - last in the AFL ".

 

Does that help?

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3 minutes ago, Vogon Poetry said:

Jnr settle.  I was referring to both stats.  There is another one that said " 1. teams score 53% of the time they enter our fwd 50 - last in the AFL ".

 

Does that help?

I just think you can't argue our defence doesn't have a glaring deficiency.

OMac may well become a good defender. I personally have my doubts. There is no doubt he has improved this year. But with him and Frost in the side we get monstered by the likes of BBrown, Buddy, Daniher and other tall fwds. Oscar also has Watts-like intensity which costs us regularly.

 

 

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52 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Its not the midfielders job to win one on one defensive contests. If the defenders can't win or neutralise the majority of contests then they aren't very good defenders. Pretty simople really. Not sure why you are struggling with that.

This was your response to "Why not the midfield for not rolling back quicker and putting pressure on?".

I would counter that I am not expecting mids to win one on one defensive contests. I expect mids to roll back hard and pressure to try to ensure that the ball does not enter our defensive zone with any fluency. 

you will find that most team (unless they are really horrible by foot) will hit up a target if allowed to carry the ball through the centre of the unopposed. 

This pressure will help the stat of opposition scoring so often on entering of our defensive half but wont stop the losing the defensive one on ones. Frost and Omac are the best body on body footballers. TMac is better but still not his strength - he is better at intercept marking or coming over the top and spoiling. Nev is surprisingly good for someone his size and so is Hibberd.

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