The Stats and the Noise

[rpfc 27,386]

There is always going to be noise this early in the season but I thought I would throw these out there to try and see whether there is improvement in the up and down start to the season:

Contested Possession

We are down 4.2 a game and that has meant going from 6th in 2016 to 12th at the moment.

Uncontested Possessions

The new kings of UPs is Goodwin; we are racking up the most at 272 a game, up over 30 a game from last year (when we were 4th). 

Clearances

Down 1.5 a game and that means we slip from 5th in 2016 to 12th.

Inside 50s

Up slightly but still 7th in the league - same as 2016.

Scoring Shots

Currently 4th in the league, up from 12th last year and really quite promising. We have had an extra 3.5 shots at goal this year. As an aside - Sydney has had 7.6 less shots at goal this year...

Summary

To much finessin' with the ball is evident from those numbers of UPs but we are steady in I50s and up in shots at goal. Lot of noise at this point, but it might mean - in an even season - that we create enough to beat enough teams to get into September. I will say - dropping 4 CPs a game is quite a bit of a drop. I would worry if that doesn't correct.

[Demon Dynasty 15,186]

Clearances are only marginally down. But down is still a worry.

Would rather see a +1 around the stoppage instead of down back early on. Someone on the outside that can run and/or shake off a tackler and then hit targets inside 50 or just get it in there more quickly and more often a la Brad Hill's role y'day. Harmes, Salem and/or Stretch in rolling combos?

We overuse the ball in the back half and 'uncontested' plus 'possessions per goal' would seem to confirm this. We switch a little too often when there is no clear advantage or open fat side. Other teams know this and have often already covered the outlets fairly easily meaning all that hard running from one side to the other often goes unrewarded.  We also aren't all that great at short/medium passing (with some exceptions), meaning we open ourselves up to the intercept more often when switching. Sometimes you just have to go up the line if there's no viable inside targets and the switch isn't on...or you are an ordinary kick or project your kicking. Back the talls and boys around the ball to lock the ball in and or win the contest for the next clearance in a place that is less risky up the field IF we do happen to turn it over. Play the percentages and play within each player's limitations. Melksham and Tmac come to mind here on the kicking side.

We lack a quarterback who can take a few contested marks down back. A Scarlet, Harry Taylor type. Very hard to find.

We still lack a clean/quick game breaking outsider in the mid field who can break the lines and find or direct the ball more effectively towards targets i50 and maintain this role/effort/cleaness and run for most of the game. Having said that we might be seeing them unfold right now from the likes of Petrac, Harmes, Salem and/or Stretch. More games into all of them they should slowly improve, building better tanks, making less rookie errors etc.

Edited April 16, 2017 by Rusty Nails

[Binmans PA 25,890]

1 hour ago, rpfc said:

There is always going to be noise this early in the season but I thought I would throw these out there to try and see whether there is improvement in the up and down start to the season:

Contested Possession

We are down 4.2 a game and that has meant going from 6th in 2016 to 12th at the moment.

Uncontested Possessions

The new kings of UPs is Goodwin; we are racking up the most at 272 a game, up over 30 a game from last year (when we were 4th). 

Clearances

Down 1.5 a game and that means we slip from 5th in 2016 to 12th.

Inside 50s

Up slightly but still 7th in the league - same as 2016.

Scoring Shots

Currently 4th in the league, up from 12th last year and really quite promising. We have had an extra 3.5 shots at goal this year. As an aside - Sydney has had 7.6 less shots at goal this year...

Summary

To much finessin' with the ball is evident from those numbers of UPs but we are steady in I50s and up in shots at goal. Lot of noise at this point, but it might mean - in an even season - that we create enough to beat enough teams to get into September. I will say - dropping 4 CPs a game is quite a bit of a drop. I would worry if that doesn't correct.

I'm intrigued as to the factors behind the drops. What were these numbers like in the first two rounds with Gawn playing? Have we started to lose these without Gawn's dominance? An AA ruckman will give you the edge in quite a few of these areas. 

I'd also suggest, our mids such as Viney and Tyson have been well down in CP, but is this actually the case? 

Intriguing...

Edited April 16, 2017 by A F

[biggestred 4,252]

Does anyone know where i can find the average ages + games played for this weekends teams?

 

[Cheap Seats 3,300]

2 minutes ago, biggestred said:

Does anyone know where i can find the average ages + games played for this weekends teams?

 

I dont know where you get it but champion data do those stats

Id be very interested to see the ave games and age comparison to failo from yesterday 

[Skuit 9,109]

Cheers rfpc.

Can you tell from the numbers whether there in any notable inverse correlation between CPs and UPs generally? And do you have a stat for turnovers? Are we winning less CPs per game this year because there are less to win?

[Dee-licious 1,800]

7 minutes ago, biggestred said:

Does anyone know where i can find the average ages + games played for this weekends teams?

 

Footywire.com.au has them once the game is played. We are 24 age and 70 games which puts us youngest and least experienced. We have the second most 0-50 gamers weeek in week out (Sydney the most) and week in week out we are playing the most players under 100 games. Carlton and Gold Coast both older and more experienced than us. The fact that we are expected to do so well is in contrast to the age and experience of our side 

 

[KingDingAling 3,589]

We can find the footy, we just can't use it well. Inefficient and ineffective. We play school yard footy. Hard to watch.

[deanox 8,509]

5 minutes ago, Skuit said:

Cheers rfpc.

Can you tell from the numbers whether there in any notable inverse correlation between CPs and UPs generally? And do you have a stat for turnovers? Are we winning less CPs per game this year because there are less to win?

A similar question:

Can you show the contested possession differetial, rather than absolute?

[Little Goffy 12,507]

1 hour ago, A F said:

I'd also suggest, our mids such as Viney and Tyson have been well down in CP, but is this actually the case? 

 

Viney down from 12.8 to 9.6 contested possession a game. Tyson down from 10.4 to 8.0. Jones also down a tick but that looks more to do with role than form.

We could really use Brayshaw out there, in form. Alongside Petracca, is one of our few players who can really punch holes in a game - he's got a highly disproportionate rate of goal assists, score involvements/launches and all that good stuff, per disposal.

[Binmans PA 25,890]

7 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

Viney down from 12.8 to 9.6 contested possession a game. Tyson down from 10.4 to 8.0. Jones also down a tick but that looks more to do with role than form.

We could really use Brayshaw out there, in form. Alongside Petracca, is one of our few players who can really punch holes in a game - he's got a highly disproportionate rate of goal assists, score involvements/launches and all that good stuff, per disposal.

Thanks mate. I agree. Unfortunately, we need an in form Brayshaw out there ASAP. 

It's a pity we have to rely on these young kids to come through and perform consistently, unlike the elder statesmen on our list.

[defuture15 837]

Tend to agree with all of this. We have the players but we seem to be physically behind the other teams. Maybe in 2 years we can expect to dominate.

It is difficult to watch when we do have most of the players we need to start winning more than we lose

[deanox 8,509]

Honestly I think the biggest issue is that we are currently playing aggressive football, taking high risk options and coming back into the corridor. This is represented by the increase in UP.

 

When it works we look great and exciting and we score easily.  When it doesn't work we turn it over easily and look silly as everyone is out of position defensively. 

I'm not sure how to measure this statistically.  Turnovers? Oppo scores from turnovers? As a percentage of total oppo scores?

 

[titan_uranus 22,218]

The differential for CPs and clearances is crucial as I've thought we've been strong in those areas to date.

The increase in UPs without a major increase in inside 50s comes from the over-possessing which we need to cut down on.

The increase in scoring shots is a positive, though, especially given we've had a lot of shots in the two games without Hogan.

[Tony Tea 2,784]

Maybe the reduced numbers in some categories and the increased numbers in scoring indicate a change of emphasis. 

[Skuit 9,109]

Some more food for thought . . .

Melbourne currently ranked 1st across the league per game for: Kicks and Marks, and least Kicks Against. (2nd in disposals differential and marks against).

Ranked 2nd for least tackles against. (14th in hit-outs - but Gawn is out and we know this will have an impact our clearance numbers).

I must say, I wouldn't have expected these numbers heading into the season - controlling the ball to such a high degree. There are aspects to this that should be pleasing, as it takes some level of decent skills to carry a high possession count and we're not getting tackled much. 

I think rather than us fiddling with it as a fundamental problem; we are still struggling to work out flooding tactics with a diminished forward line. The numbers as a whole suggest the opposition are allowing us the ball and focusing on hurting us on the transition. 

[Binmans PA 25,890]

6 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

The differential for CPs and clearances is crucial as I've thought we've been strong in those areas to date.

The increase in UPs without a major increase in inside 50s comes from the over-possessing which we need to cut down on.

The increase in scoring shots is a positive, though, especially given we've had a lot of shots in the two games without Hogan.

And these scoring positions have been favourable for conversion too. It's not like we've been dragged out to the pockets and our forwards have had difficult set shots. We've often had very gettable shots and we've just failed to convert these easy chances. It certainly tells me we're doing a lot right, but finishing is the issue.

You'd expect us to adjust the over-possessing as the season progresses and hopefully this leads to even higher scoring shot counts. I think we're still learning that efficiency is easier if you have trust in your team mates. We're trusting our team mates on the inside of the contest, but not higher up the ground as often. Once this clicks, I think we'll see less over-possessing, quicker ball movement and more scoring shots. 

The other thing I hope we see this year is a return to dominance in the clearances. I know that'll be tough with Gawn out, but if Oliver can do it, so can Tyson, Viney et al.

[Binmans PA 25,890]

3 hours ago, Skuit said:

Some more food for thought . . .

Melbourne currently ranked 1st across the league per game for: Kicks and Marks, and least Kicks Against. (2nd in disposals differential and marks against).

Ranked 2nd for least tackles against. (14th in hit-outs - but Gawn is out and we know this will have an impact our clearance numbers).

I must say, I wouldn't have expected these numbers heading into the season - controlling the ball to such a high degree. There are aspects to this that should be pleasing, as it takes some level of decent skills to carry a high possession count and we're not getting tackled much.

I think rather than us fiddling with it as a fundamental problem; we are still struggling to work out flooding tactics with a diminished forward line. The numbers as a whole suggest the opposition are allowing us the ball and focusing on hurting us on the transition. 

I think the backwards hand pass from stoppages that we used throughout the JLT and the first four rounds, has enabled us to release players or prevent our guys being tackled. It also affords our players a few extra seconds to spot targets up the ground, rather than bombing long or blasting it directly out of congestion in stoppages.

Freo may have worked us out over the weekend in that regard, but it will be interesting to see. The Bulldogs are another team that use this tactic to great effect.

[praha 10,267]

16 hours ago, Skuit said:

Some more food for thought . . .

Melbourne currently ranked 1st across the league per game for: Kicks and Marks, and least Kicks Against. (2nd in disposals differential and marks against).

Ranked 2nd for least tackles against. (14th in hit-outs - but Gawn is out and we know this will have an impact our clearance numbers).

I must say, I wouldn't have expected these numbers heading into the season - controlling the ball to such a high degree. There are aspects to this that should be pleasing, as it takes some level of decent skills to carry a high possession count and we're not getting tackled much. 

I think rather than us fiddling with it as a fundamental problem; we are still struggling to work out flooding tactics with a diminished forward line. The numbers as a whole suggest the opposition are allowing us the ball and focusing on hurting us on the transition. 

Well our scoring suggests opposition flooding isn't that problem. We have the talent to break through and hit the score board. It's conversion that's the issue there.

Where we are being killed is opposition transition out of the forwardline, and bring out muscled in the middle, which is very disappointing.

We have no issues getting the ball and scoring. It's just converting a little more and tightening up behind the ball. We are pretty close at the moment. We've had a hard run so far and in hindsight performed exactly like this team was going to perform. We might be 12 months off being a *great* team but we're 4-5 weeks away from going on a 4-5 game winning streak. 

[Little Goffy 12,507]

How are we doing on the stat for 'getting numbers into defense when there's almost not time left to go and we're holding onto a tiny lead'?

Has it improved since the Saints game (Rnd 11 2015)?

Wow, funny how some things just keep stinging. That one still feels like it was near the end of last season, just a few games ago, not some 20 months ago.

[The heart beats true 16,012]

18 hours ago, Skuit said:

I think rather than us fiddling with it as a fundamental problem; we are still struggling to work out flooding tactics with a diminished forward line. The numbers as a whole suggest the opposition are allowing us the ball and focusing on hurting us on the transition. 

Really interesting. 

I think we want to possess the ball (clearly) but that gives the opposition the chance to set up defensively meaning we HAVE to over possess to pick through the zone.

The only other alternatives are:

Get the ball to a player who can run (Hunt) through the zone before it's set up, or kick over it (Petracca and I think Vince has this license to). Trac stuffed up a long kick early in the 4th but the next time he got the ball he went for another 60 metre kick which resulted in a Garlett goal. He's been trained to go for it. Or,

Long down the line to the next contest and play for a contested mark or stoppage. No Hogan no go. We've really missed this with the ball in hand of younger players.

[Skuit 9,109]

1 hour ago, The heart beats true said:

Really interesting. 

I think we want to possess the ball (clearly) but that gives the opposition the chance to set up defensively meaning we HAVE to over possess to pick through the zone.

 

This is a good reflection of what we've actually seen. And it's worked at times (sporadically and 3rd qrt vs. Saints), which is pleasing as it demonstrates another string to our bow and the ability to play tempo footy - we just need to get better at knowing when to switch gears and approaches. Our hell-for-leather is unstoppable but probably unsustainable across four quarters - but we need to back it in at times to break things open even if it's not immediately successful e.g. 3rd qtr vs. Freo. When Jones blindly hoofed a ball out of defence I knew we were in serious trouble.

Edited April 17, 2017 by Skuit

[titan_uranus 22,218]

4 hours ago, praha said:

Well our scoring suggests opposition flooding isn't that problem. We have the talent to break through and hit the score board. It's conversion that's the issue there.

Where we are being killed is opposition transition out of the forwardline, and bring out muscled in the middle, which is very disappointing.

We have no issues getting the ball and scoring. It's just converting a little more and tightening up behind the ball. We are pretty close at the moment. We've had a hard run so far and in hindsight performed exactly like this team was going to perform. We might be 12 months off being a *great* team but we're 4-5 weeks away from going on a 4-5 game winning streak. 

Having calmed down considerably from the game, this sums me up nicely I think.

Most of what we're doing is working. In all four games, IMO, we've been on top for longer than our opponents have. When we lose it's because we aren't doing enough damage with our momentum and simultaneously letting our opponents do sufficient damage with their momentum.

If we, as you say, convert more when we go forward and can tighten up even 20% behind the ball, we should improve both those problems.

Getting Hogan, Lewis and Hibberd into the side and getting important players like Tyson, Kent, Viney, Petracca and Salem up closer to 100% TOG will also hep that happen, I think.

[Nasher 33,047]

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

Getting Hogan, Lewis and Hibberd into the side and getting important players like Tyson, Kent, Viney, Petracca and Salem up closer to 100% TOG will also hep that happen, I think.

About 85% is what elite midfielders do consistently.  You get the odd freak who can hammer out the occasional 90% - Cross did this a lot for us which is one reason I think he was underrated, but generally, nup.  Salem, Viney and Tyson are all pretty much there this year, and Petracca exceeds the target but as a forward.

It's really only key defenders who ever tickle the 100% mark, and even then it's rarely.

I guess what the TOG% stat doesn't indicate is work rate - while players may spend a lot of time on the ground, we don't know how much of that is spent covering territory and how much is spent loping about doing bugger all.  I'd love to see a comparative table on metres travelled during a game.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,396]

On 16/04/2017 at 6:48 PM, deanox said:

Honestly I think the biggest issue is that we are currently playing aggressive football, taking high risk options and coming back into the corridor. This is represented by the increase in UP.

I think our biggest issue is not converting scoring shots when we have the momentum. Against Geelong obviously but also early on against Freo before we kicked 7 goals in the 2nd quarter. Also the first 10 minutes of the last quarter against Freo. 

The gameplan seems to be working well enough to win games, we're just not kicking enough goals when we have the chance.