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ArtificialWisdom

Spencil it in!

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So with the big Spencil coming in for our 12 week Maxless challenge. I thought I'd look into his 11 assignments (11?! yes 11, there is a bye in there). I'm interested to see how he goes against some of the more "battler" type ruckmen. Although, going though this makes me realise, If there had to be any time of year for max to go down, this was the one you would say is the best for us. Particularly when you look at the run home, but we'll get to that later. For now, here's Spencil's fixture:

Freo (H) - Sandilands
So, straight in the deep end for Jake. Sandilands is as big as the come and has been one of the best for years. As good as Max is we wouldnt even be sure that we would get any advantage with him playing. The best we can hope for is Jake nullifying Sandy much the same as the likes of Hickey were able to nullifying Max last year.

Rich (A) - Nankervis
I'm pretty big on Nankervis, I think he will one day be a star ruckman. That said, he isnt one yet. For now he is a solid competitor who shows glimpses of talent. Spencil should have nankervis covered 8/9 times out of 10 but if he has a day out Nankervis could quickly become a handfull.

Ess  (A) - Leuenberger/McKernan/Bellchambers?
Mckernan has been showing some good signs this year, particulary around the ground so Jake would have his hands full after the initial contest. However I think in the ruck itself Spencer should be fine to draw even against any of these guys. 

Haw  (H) - McEvoy/Vickery
Well I think we can agree Jake has Vickery covered. McEvoy is a bigger challenge. Hitouts I think Spence can get himself his fair share, but I don't know if he will be able to get many that are particularly meaningful. Much like the Essendon guys i think Spencer will draw even.

Adel (A) - Jacobs
Jacobs is a huge challenge. Probably beyond what Spencil will be able to handle. I'd love to be wrong but the lack of max plus it being at adelaide oval against what could still be an undefeated Adelaide (their fixture is easier than ours)... it could be a really tough day for us.

North (H) - Goldy/Pruess
Strange things going on at North. Pruess is playing as the Nr 1 ruck.. and doing well. Who knows how long it will last but once again Spencer will have his hands full here.. could be another tough day but we should be good enough to get over the line even without control in the ruck.

Suns (H) - Witts
Witts is an interesting one, Spencer's story could be similar to his in 12 months time, He has been in the shadows of Grundy for some time and has instantly become a solid Nr 1 ruckman at another club. No easy task for Spencil but at the same time he should be plenty good enough to match it against a fellow VFL ruckman.

Coll (H) - Grundy
With Gawn out of his way, I think Grundy is a super chance of taking the AA spot this year. Hope spencer can limit him as much as possible but it will be the hardest task of this run.

Dogs (A) - Campbell/Roughead/Boyd
Battlers and nothing more. Spencer should be just fine against whoever he comes up against. The dogs are well known as a bigger threat at ground level.

WCE  (A) - Vardy/Peitre/Giles/Basically anyone over 190cm
Vardy keeps treatening to be a good player but then either underperforms or gets injured. Spencer should be good enough against these guys. They share his "Temp guy" label so wouldnt expect them to be capable of dominating.

Syd  (H) - Naismith/Tippett/Sinclair
All decent without being great ruckmen. Tough day in the office but by no means unbeatable. Like most on this list he should be able to draw even.

So coming to the end of the 11 weeks I have to say: It's not by any means looking like a disaster. No doubt we will miss a few opportunities for Max to be completely dominant, but Spencer is a capable guy, he should be able to keep us in most games. Freo, Adelaide, North and Collingwood shape up as the 4 toughest asks. Of which 2I would say we should still win, Adelaide and Collingwood (Dependent on from) may not be so simple. Other than that I wouldnt think Spencer would kill off any of our chances in the other games. Their ruckman are far from dominant enough to give us too many issues. For media personel to suggest our finals hopes are done is foolish. I believe in what the Spencil can do for us! 

Now, with all of that being said... I couldnt leave out the worst case scenario even if it was just a footnote: 
If Max's rehab is delayed, the final 8 matches of the season are Carlton, Adelaide, Port, North, GWS, St Kilda, Brisbane, Collingwood. Those 8 games contain most of the best ruckman going around, If we dont have Max back then, it could be a really tough run home. And on the otherside of that. Max wont have anything in the way of a warmup when he is back, he will be straight in against Kreuzer and it aint getting any easier.

But let's think positive for now! Will be great to see how we as a team track through these big 3 months. Spencer himself could do anything in this time. I hope he earns himself a big contract, whether it is with us or elsewhere, it doesnt matter. Because if he does that, we will be playing in September 

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Good post AW. The reality is that many teams are playing without dominant ruckmen. If you believe Leigh Matthews the position is almost redundant.

The challenge for us this year was to leverage off Gawn's dominance. ... Oh well we don't have to worry about that anymore

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This post just makes me wish I had the spare time in my life to analyse 12 games that Jake Spencer will play in. 

The big fella will go alright. 

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Just now, Wiseblood said:

This post just makes me wish I had the spare time in my life to analyse 12 games that Jake Spencer will play in. 

The big fella will go alright. 

Its posts like these that make you relieved that I'm not your employee

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Knowing Max he will be back before the 12 weeks.

I feel Spencer will do well from what I have seen of him. Not a bad spare,

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38 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

So with the big Spencil coming in for our 12 week Maxless challenge. I thought I'd look into his 11 assignments (11?! yes 11, there is a bye in there). I'm interested to see how he goes against some of the more "battler" type ruckmen. Although, going though this makes me realise, If there had to be any time of year for max to go down, this was the one you would say is the best for us. Particularly when you look at the run home, but we'll get to that later. For now, here's Spencil's fixture:

Freo (H) - Sandilands
So, straight in the deep end for Jake. Sandilands is as big as the come and has been one of the best for years. As good as Max is we wouldnt even be sure that we would get any advantage with him playing. The best we can hope for is Jake nullifying Sandy much the same as the likes of Hickey were able to nullifying Max last year.

Rich (A) - Nankervis
I'm pretty big on Nankervis, I think he will one day be a star ruckman. That said, he isnt one yet. For now he is a solid competitor who shows glimpses of talent. Spencil should have nankervis covered 8/9 times out of 10 but if he has a day out Nankervis could quickly become a handfull.

Ess  (A) - Leuenberger/McKernan/Bellchambers?
Mckernan has been showing some good signs this year, particulary around the ground so Jake would have his hands full after the initial contest. However I think in the ruck itself Spencer should be fine to draw even against any of these guys. 

Haw  (H) - McEvoy/Vickery
Well I think we can agree Jake has Vickery covered. McEvoy is a bigger challenge. Hitouts I think Spence can get himself his fair share, but I don't know if he will be able to get many that are particularly meaningful. Much like the Essendon guys i think Spencer will draw even.

Adel (A) - Jacobs
Jacobs is a huge challenge. Probably beyond what Spencil will be able to handle. I'd love to be wrong but the lack of max plus it being at adelaide oval against what could still be an undefeated Adelaide (their fixture is easier than ours)... it could be a really tough day for us.

North (H) - Goldy/Pruess
Strange things going on at North. Pruess is playing as the Nr 1 ruck.. and doing well. Who knows how long it will last but once again Spencer will have his hands full here.. could be another tough day but we should be good enough to get over the line even without control in the ruck.

Suns (H) - Witts
Witts is an interesting one, Spencer's story could be similar to his in 12 months time, He has been in the shadows of Grundy for some time and has instantly become a solid Nr 1 ruckman at another club. No easy task for Spencil but at the same time he should be plenty good enough to match it against a fellow VFL ruckman.

Coll (H) - Grundy
With Gawn out of his way, I think Grundy is a super chance of taking the AA spot this year. Hope spencer can limit him as much as possible but it will be the hardest task of this run.

Dogs (A) - Campbell/Roughead/Boyd
Battlers and nothing more. Spencer should be just fine against whoever he comes up against. The dogs are well known as a bigger threat at ground level.

WCE  (A) - Vardy/Peitre/Giles/Basically anyone over 190cm
Vardy keeps treatening to be a good player but then either underperforms or gets injured. Spencer should be good enough against these guys. They share his "Temp guy" label so wouldnt expect them to be capable of dominating.

Syd  (H) - Naismith/Tippett/Sinclair
All decent without being great ruckmen. Tough day in the office but by no means unbeatable. Like most on this list he should be able to draw even.

So coming to the end of the 11 weeks I have to say: It's not by any means looking like a disaster. No doubt we will miss a few opportunities for Max to be completely dominant, but Spencer is a capable guy, he should be able to keep us in most games. Freo, Adelaide, North and Collingwood shape up as the 4 toughest asks. Of which 2I would say we should still win, Adelaide and Collingwood (Dependent on from) may not be so simple. Other than that I wouldnt think Spencer would kill off any of our chances in the other games. Their ruckman are far from dominant enough to give us too many issues. For media personel to suggest our finals hopes are done is foolish. I believe in what the Spencil can do for us! 

Now, with all of that being said... I couldnt leave out the worst case scenario even if it was just a footnote: 
If Max's rehab is delayed, the final 8 matches of the season are Carlton, Adelaide, Port, North, GWS, St Kilda, Brisbane, Collingwood. Those 8 games contain most of the best ruckman going around, If we dont have Max back then, it could be a really tough run home. And on the otherside of that. Max wont have anything in the way of a warmup when he is back, he will be straight in against Kreuzer and it aint getting any easier.

But let's think positive for now! Will be great to see how we as a team track through these big 3 months. Spencer himself could do anything in this time. I hope he earns himself a big contract, whether it is with us or elsewhere, it doesnt matter. Because if he does that, we will be playing in September 

Great post, thanks for the effort in compiling the list. Hopefully its not the full 12 weeks. Apparently Gawn's surgeon has got players back in 7 weeks but they are usually more agile than the big man

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In the era of not relying on one person (eg Buddy at Hawthorn in his last year there), it is amazing how we had all our eggs in the Gawn basket.

 

3rd man up rule has gone from being our friend to our worst nightmare.

 

If Spencer doesn't work out, we will be forced to consider Beveridge's tactic in Freo in 2015 where he dropped Minson and put 4 onballers to go up against Freo.

Chris Scott did this against North in round  2 also.

 

 

 

 

 

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I think Spencer will take his chance and suprise many people

If he doesn't his AFL career will be in jeopardy

Jake will make Max earn his spot back in 3 months & that's the way it should be.

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One thing we know about Spencer is that he wont go quietly.

Based on the pre-season reports and last year's VFL efforts, I think we can be pretty confident that the Spencer we'll see for the next few months will be better than we've ever seen him at AFL level before.

I'm strangely excited by the prospect, it is always good to see an unrewarded, unlucky stalwart get a run at it.

Remembering he is also one of our last half-dozen players left from the Bailey era - the guy has had a tough AFL life.

 

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21 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

One thing we know about Spencer is that he wont go quietly.

Based on the pre-season reports and last year's VFL efforts, I think we can be pretty confident that the Spencer we'll see for the next few months will be better than we've ever seen him at AFL level before.

I'm strangely excited by the prospect, it is always good to see an unrewarded, unlucky stalwart get a run at it.

Remembering he is also one of our last half-dozen players left from the Bailey era - the guy has had a tough AFL life.

 

Yep. Absolutely and all power to him for sticking it out

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2 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Good post AW. The reality is that many teams are playing without dominant ruckmen. If you believe Leigh Matthews the position is almost redundant.

The challenge for us this year was to leverage off Gawn's dominance. ... Oh well we don't have to worry about that anymore

To me, this post demonstrates why Frost should be played. He is not the greatest ruckman, but if anything happened to Jake he would be adequate. And we need an additional tall on the back line anyway

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49 minutes ago, Farmer said:

To me, this post demonstrates why Frost should be played. He is not the greatest ruckman, but if anything happened to Jake he would be adequate. And we need an additional tall on the back line anyway

To date, they have never pulled any tall out of the back line when Gawn is off the ground. They've all come from the forward line - Watts, Frost (when playing forward), Spencil

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Our improved form is not only because of max gawn, we now have one of the best and most talented midfields in the game and I am backing them to play just as well under jake 

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My prediction is that over the next 12 weeks Spencer will hold his own against the top ruckman in the league and we will be offered a top 20 draft pick for him at the end of the season.

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38 minutes ago, Romey said:

My prediction is that over the next 12 weeks Spencer will hold his own against the top ruckman in the league and we will be offered a top 20 draft pick for him at the end of the season.

I'd love that, but as he's only got a one year deal with us, they'll just talk him into walking for free.

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7 hours ago, TGR said:

In the era of not relying on one person (eg Buddy at Hawthorn in his last year there), it is amazing how we had all our eggs in the Gawn basket.

Amazing, really? How have we put all our eggs in the Gawn basket? By playing the fit and firing AA ruckman in every game? By playing just the one (AA) ruckman just like every other club? Explain if you will. 

Soencer has been primed through the pre season for just this type of occurrence, reckon that's another basket with a few eggs in it. 

 

 

Richmond are 3-0. We lost. Copped our worst possible injury. You must be loving life. 

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9 hours ago, Romey said:

My prediction is that over the next 12 weeks Spencer will hold his own against the top ruckman in the league and we will be offered a top 20 draft pick for him at the end of the season.

Except that he's an unrestricted free agent.

Edited by Fifty-5
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I believe Spencer will do fine.  Our new game plan does not call for uncontested possession from stoppages (armchair rides from the ruckman) but instead, continuous contested possession wins all over the ground.  If we get it, we go like hell.  If they get it, we get it off them - no easy exits.  This is based on the emerging midfield/halfback/half forward rotating groups.

If he breaks even, I think our game style holds us in great stead.  If he wins the stoppages to advantage, then even better. 

#1 he has to make a serious contest of key stoppages (ball in dispute or a win).

#2 he has to be the marking target for outlet kicks, and contest opposition outlet kicks to their ruckman (bringing these to ground)

#3 he has to be part of the team in terms of pressure acts, tackling etc

#4 if he can sneak forward and kick a goal, that adds some value

So, confident that if he has to step up he can add value to the team.  What more could you ask?  If he shows superstar attributes in the next 12 weeks, then sign him up and play 2 rucks into the finals.

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I actually have a lot of faith in big Jake. My biggest fear is that he gets injured or suspended... if he goes down in the next 12 weeks we are truly cooked. 

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Imagine the reaction he will get when he snags his first goal. It will be like a first gamer. Bit like when trengrove got one on his return last year

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