Welcome to Demonland: Jake Lever

[Gator 16,888]

Wow.

At 21 Lever is the no.1 intercept possession player in the game, just shading Rance (9.5 to 9.4), and the no. 2 intercept mark in the game, just behind McGovern (3.8 to 3.6).

This isn't a 25 or 27 year old wanting to come home.  We've got this guy from the age of 22.

Worth every cent.

 

[picket fence 15,036]

We have been screwed yet again MASSIVE MASSIVE overs for a player who is "A  better mans Oscar Mac""!

Our negotiation and management skills are Abysmal!!

Should have played hardball !!No gonads!! MFC

 

[demoniac 1,243]

High draft picks are not an end in themselves.

It is a high price but rarely does a 21 year old with Lever's talents move clubs. Elite intercept mark & spoiler, in the American parlance Lever 'plays long' ie contacts the ball with his arms fully extended when marking and spoiling.

 

 

Edited October 12, 2017 by demoniac

[DeeZee 6,717]

The people who whinge about us paying too high a price are probaby the same ones who complain that we always get killed by the likes of Ben Brown and Joe Daniher , Josh Kennedy and the like.

Make no mistake, if we had him this season we would have made the finals quite comfortably.

i guess they would prefer an untried teenager at pick 18 or something than a intercept machine such as Lever.

At some stage we have to make a tilt at the flag, now is the time.

Edited October 12, 2017 by DeeZee

[Demons1858 1,657]

8 minutes ago, Macca said:

How many genuine A graders are in the top 10 picks on average?  Say, over a 10 year period.  Many would be surprised how few there actually are.  Maybe 20-25 out of a 100.  That's 1 in 5 or at best, 1 in 4 (top 10 picks)

That's just the reality of the actual results.  I created a thread about it a few years ago.  Within the OP I provide a link to all the ND's from 2000 through to 2009.  So there's the 10 year sample size. 

How many genuine A graders?  Forget B grade players or 150 game players ... only genuine A graders for the sake of the exercise.

Oliver is well on his way to becoming a genuine A grade player so that's why I wouldn't trade him easily ... let's all hope that Lever ends up the same. 

Here's that thread (again) ... Bad Luck or Bad Recruiting

Macca, i've seen it before. Clearly your not a data scientist by trade. The sampling is poor and l recall debating that with you on another thread where you rolled out those stats. Not going into it again however as its been done to death

Lets agree to disagree. We can also agree that Lever looks the goods and will make us better in 2018

[Moonshadow 16,099]

21 minutes ago, faultydet said:

I'm on your side Eth, but I do ask myself how I would feel if our wheels fell off next year, and it turns out to be pick 8

It would be very Melbourne for that to happen.

I think it is an indication that our coaching group thinks we are about to hit the big time. That alone is worth at least some excitement.

Jared Rivers was made for todays zoning game. I think we just traded for a modern upgrade with solid kicking skills.

Lever will dramatically improve our chances of rising up the ladder rather than falling. The FD have chosen a proven A grade 21yo player with lauded leadership skills rather than gamble on picks 10 this year and ~14 next year. If it were a top 3 pick I might be disappointed, even then we haven't had too much success there, but Lever is a very good player ready to make immediate impact that will improve us dramatically. We've used high draft picks often enough of late. 

Now wouldn't it be nice if Balic proves to be a little surprise packet!

[the fork 357]

25 minutes ago, picket fence said:

We have been screwed yet again MASSIVE MASSIVE overs for a player who is "A  better mans Oscar Mac""!

Our negotiation and management skills are Abysmal!!

Should have played hardball !!No gonads!! MFC

 

What a terrible string of cliches. We essentially paid the equivalent of pick 4 for a lynchpin of our backline for the next decade. Do some research, actually wait and watch he brings to the team before you slander player and club. Grow some yourself you keyboard warrior.

[Beetle 4,279]

7 hours ago, Demons11 said:

For all you saying we paid overs.  Based on the Dees finishing 6th next year and the Crows 4th

 

 

[Macca 16,173]

1 hour ago, Demons1858 said:

Macca, i've seen it before. Clearly your not a data scientist by trade. The sampling is poor and l recall debating that with you on another thread where you rolled out those stats. Not going into it again however as its been done to death

Lets agree to disagree. We can also agree that Lever looks the goods and will make us better in 2018

Again,  if there are only 20-25 A grade players out of a sample size of 100 top ten picks,  then that is a 1 in 5 strike rate or at best,  a 1 in 4 strike rate. 

So in order to attain a player of say,  Dangerfield's quality,  a club needs 4 or 5 chances at it.  And even then there are no guarantees.  We at Melbourne know that all too well. 

Percentage-plays based on probability factors will be viewed more closely with regards to drafting down the track.  It might take a while but eventually it will happen.  Then,  the true value of a draft pick will be seen. 

Back on topic ... if Lever turns out to be A grade quality and plays mostly at that standard over a 10 year period for us,  we've snared an absolute bargain.  As it stands, he's a very good player already.

 

Edited October 12, 2017 by Macca

[spirit of norm smith 12,828]

The bottom line ... no draft lottery. We get Lever.  Win for the Dees. 

Finals in 2018. ???

[brendan 3,380]

So to all those saying we paid too much, if we finished bottom 4 and had pick 4 would you trade that for lever? I know I would you know exactly what your going to get he is a very very good player and will only get better, some of the carry on over a few subjective draft selections is laughable we gave up the equivalent of pick 4 classic win/win trade 

[Members' Wing 1,106]

People seem to have comprehension issues, and as soon as they see "two first rounders" panic and ignore all other elements of the deal.

Let me say again, according to the AFL draft points calculator, the end result of this trade is we have given up the equivalent of pick 10 and pick 32. Pick 10 and pick 32 for the best young defender in the game.

If you're upset about that then you've got rocks in your head.

[Deestroy All 14,261]

I want success now. This helps. 

Whingers gunna whinge. 

[Rogue 585]

6 hours ago, Demons1858 said:

Hey rogue, l think you shot yourself in the foot. There are some guns or young up and coming guns on that pick 10 list and to a lesser degree pick 12. Again, work on the sample, exclude the 2016 kids that can go either way. Its clear we are likely to miss out on a gun (on average) with two top draft picks. Lever better be elite, good thing is l think he is

I really don't understand how you've come to the conclusion this sample shoots myself in the foot. We must be looking at a different sample, have a different understanding of probability/averages or have wildly differing opinions on what a gun is!

[It's also worth noting that an assessment of the picks doesn't factor in the later draft picks that Adelaide gave to us - we also get Pick 35 and swap a fourth round pick for a third round pick - and has a conservative estimate of our 2018 ladder position].

Let's say we ignore the 2016 draftees, as per your suggestion - that leaves us with 18 players. Daniher was touted as a top two pick and only went to Pick 10 because of the father-son rule; since he's not representative of what you get at that pick. Since we don't have a top-two father-son prospect in the next two years let's look at Vlastuin, who went at Pick 9, instead.

Of the 18, I'm calling seven a clear bust - six are now out of the system; Johnston, Lucas, Cook, Jaksch, Gorringe and Sumner. The seventh is Freeman, whose trade netted his original club a paltry upgrade from Pick 68 to Pick 63. (Two seasons later and he still hasn't debuted).

[This is almost half of the sample!]

Melksham and Docherty were both traded for second round picks - Picks 25 and 33 respectively - before they hit their peak age. Adelaide received Pick 20 in compensation for Davis bailing (who, fwiw, has been a good but not great player at GWS).

[We've now covered more than half of the sample! Ie. This is what you'll get 'on average'.]

Another three played a combined total of 10 AFL games this season. Lennon (two games) and Ellis (six games) couldn't get out of Richmond's VFL side, while McKay played two games - but he was only drafted in 2015 (I would have excluded the class of '15 as well because I reckon they're too young to make a call on).

[NB: So far we've already covered 13 players - 72% of the group - and it's either out of the system, gone for Pick 20+ or not best 22, with apologies to McKay]

Vlastuin looks like he'll be a good AFL player, but I'm not convinced he's going to be a gun (are you?). Cockatoo is exciting but hasn't been able to play more than half the season in the seniors since his debut year, when the Cats were able to use him as the sub. He's also been significantly injured during matches at least six times, which is about 20% of his games! Curnow played most games this year but I haven't seen enough to confidently rate him - is he one you're saying is going to be a gun?

However, there are two clear standouts; Dangerfield was a gun at Adelaide and left them with Picks 9 and 28 (plus a swap of Pick 50 for Gore, who was taken 55). Rioli has been a star for the Hawks, who drafted him, so that's also a great get.

PS. If I had time I would look at a bunch of other guys picked before and after Picks 10/12, but I simply don't. I think this group is representative enough, though, but I'd encourage you to if you think the sample is still too small

Edited October 12, 2017 by Rogue

[Skuit 9,108]

Hehe. Woke up in the middle of the night for the Lever deal, went to work for ten hours, came home, only to read that people are still complaining about spending overs for a future, consistent AA defender. This site has gone full-tilt.

I speculated that we would accommodate the Crow's demand for paying two firsts while not spending a cent more than our original offer of 10 & 28 - so as to allow them to save face. This is exactly what has happened. What I failed to predict was that our own supporters would be duped by the 'two-firsts' hype and believe that we're the ones losing face.

Forgetting everything else: it's a first and a first and a fourth for a first, second and third, with one of those firsts (hint: ours) being a genuine ready-to-go first and a known commodity with a couple years in the system. What the hell is the problem with that?

Anyways, congrats to Josh and the team for once again showing we're on top the game while maintaining our good reputation and getting [censored] done. 

[Skuit 9,108]

10 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

My only concern is that with no 1st rounders from 2016-18 we may end up with a hole in our list from an age perspective 7 or 8 years down the track (similar to our poor drafting in the early 2000's).

But if the strategy pays off with a flag or 3 over the next decade I'm sure I'll live with it

I had a small concern like this also Gonzo. But we've had a drip-feed of firsts through injuries and trading futures: Petracca and Hogan were a year late (Hoges an extra year for being underage and then perhaps considering this year - one again), Brashaw maybe two; Oliver and Wieds a year early - in essence I don't think we're starved of young talent.

And the notion that we were potentially done with trading after Lever and Balic hit home a bit. We're fighting against equalisation: it's a cycle where veterans move out, clear cap, and you develop new young players. Every club has to go through it. But we've stock-piled the best young list in the league to break the cycle and have a one-two-three-year tilt.

And now, those players have become genuine commodities. If we're squeezed on cap, we trade them out for value and hopefully continue the cycle from there to powerhouse status without a serious rebuild (a la Geelong/Sydney etc).

[Adzman 2,085]

Would rather trade two first rounders for lever than draft another jimmy Toumpas or Lucas Cook.

we paid overs, but we got the player we needed. lets move on from this and call it a win-win.

[jackaub 1,402]

Watt people are missing is that if we get this trade period right and get a team and team plan right for next year

WE WONT NEED A FIRST ROUND PICK NEXT YEAR!

Its a risk but we are shooting for glory in 2018

Go Dees

[rpfc 27,378]

9 hours ago, mo64 said:

And yet you annointed Roos the Greatest Caretaker Coach ever.

2016 we had a full list under Roos and won 10 games. 2017 we were hit hard by injuries to key players and won 12 games. 

Even if we played finals, you would have given the credit to Roos.

 

 

Would I now?

So I critique Goodwin for not making the finals and partially blame his coaching, and you think that means that I would give the credit to someone else if we did make the finals?

That doesn't compute. I don't have a 'Roos > Goodwin' Agenda; objective reality does.

This team hasn't done anything, didn't do anything under Roos, and hasn't done anything yet. I am impressed that Goodwin, Mahoney and co. can convince the best young defender in the game to come to the club with that in mind.

If we had played against Port, we would have won, if we played against GWS I would have bet on us, and if we played at the G in the Prelim against the Tigers that would have been something.

If you have a problem with specific criticisms of Goodwin and the way we play, I would be more than happy to defend those. I even started a thread so you wouldn't have to travel around to find them. It's on the footy board.

[dee-tox 4,767]

Getting in 21 year old AA squad members aint easy. But we've pulled it off. Kudos to all concerned. Personally, I like tough kents coming into the team with leadership qualities. Out with soft xocks that don't go when they should. In with the natural born winners that get going from the start.

[old55 21,203]

11 hours ago, TGR said:

We paid too high a price.

Which Vic club was going to offer anything like the farm?

 

 

Adelaide are laughing.  We could have screwed them and played chicken to the end.

 

 

 

Goodwin and Co are desperate for finals in 2017.  Great, but takes from the next decade.

Multi-dimensional tall?

Maybe we have other fish to fry this trade period and need to move on?

[Deestar9 1,402]

11 hours ago, picket fence said:

We have been screwed yet again MASSIVE MASSIVE overs for a player who is "A  better mans Oscar Mac""!

Our negotiation and management skills are Abysmal!!

Should have played hardball !!No gonads!! MFC

 

How refreshing to hear & read most of the football media (mainly ex players ) laud this trade.  One point I absolutely agree with them on is this....we have been to the trade & draft (several times) & we have actually got it right.  We don't need any young 18 yr olds ....we need 21 /22 yr olds who are proven & can fit right into our team profile & more importantly team straight away.  Let's remember we are not giving up a top 10 pick next year ....more likely a 16 or similar.  Why do we want to develop players for two years....our teams profile is then heading up to 25yrs.  Pretty much everyone (without a vested interest) is very excited with our team & are predicting great things.  I concur 100% .  It seems to me that the longer we get away from the past season....the predictions & comments seem to forget about the serious injuries...suspensions...personal illness & tragedy that unfortunately befell the club.   We get all the players who won awards at the B&F absolutely laud Goodwin & the coaching panel....rave about the direction the club is taking & are so excited about the future yet we're reading such negative comments on here about all of the above.  Derision about young men promising to do their best to take this club forward.  I am super excited.....wrapped with all the same things that those B&F players stated & for me the "icing on the cake" would be Jack to stay.  If that doesn't happen then I will respect the "decision" because not one person on this forum would know exactly what has gone on at the footy club with Jack. How about a bit of positivity.....my partner is Collingwood & just said that all you hear on any radio station at the moment is how exciting the Melbourne team is & they are right up there in Premiership calculations!!!!

[mo64 5,208]

1 hour ago, rpfc said:

Would I now?

So I critique Goodwin for not making the finals and partially blame his coaching, and you think that means that I would give the credit to someone else if we did make the finals?

That doesn't compute. I don't have a 'Roos > Goodwin' Agenda; objective reality does.

This team hasn't done anything, didn't do anything under Roos, and hasn't done anything yet. I am impressed that Goodwin, Mahoney and co. can convince the best young defender in the game to come to the club with that in mind.

If we had played against Port, we would have won, if we played against GWS I would have bet on us, and if we played at the G in the Prelim against the Tigers that would have been something.

If you have a problem with specific criticisms of Goodwin and the way we play, I would be more than happy to defend those. I even started a thread so you wouldn't have to travel around to find them. It's on the footy board.

If you had of included the bolded sentence in your Goodwin critique, and detailed the flaws of the team under Roos, I wouldn't have come to the opinion that you are being excessively harsh on a 1st year coach. Roos left us with some underlying issues within the team's culture, which Goodwin is trying to address.

And you are putting all the pressure on Goodwin with lines like: "We are in 'hashtag noexcuses' territory."

But as you say, this debate is for another topic.

 

 

[old55 21,203]

12 hours ago, Demons1858 said:

What a silly paragraph, shows you have run out of facts to argue. He may not want to extend his contract we don't know

You fail to understand a fundamental FA fact in your spurious argument about 4 years vs Macca's very reasonable "10 year player" observation.  You're the one who looks silly.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

13 hours ago, picket fence said:

We have been screwed yet again MASSIVE MASSIVE overs for a player who is "A  better mans Oscar Mac""!

Our negotiation and management skills are Abysmal!!

Should have played hardball !!No gonads!! MFC

 

I take back any concern about this deal.

Edited October 12, 2017 by Clint Bizkit