A Day at the Races

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 minute ago, Demon77 said:

Received a text about the Zephyr a short time ago and it goes a little something like this.

Pat Carey has decided to run the horse tomorrow. They view the wide barrier as an opportunity to alter his racing pattern for the race.

They will ride the horse cold and see if he can run on, only once has he raced at the back of the field and although not by choice that day the horse rattled home for a close third.

The track is a concern but apparently Pakenham has a really good drainage system in place and the track should dry up a bit.

 

 

Ok, its game on for the Zeph! Thats great txt, been a long time since ive seen one of those. Theres a bit of wind around so the track might dry out. Interesting about riding the horse cold. Maybe thats the key! Who knows....thanks D77. Ill be watching with great interest. Lets hope theres no rain overnight.

[Macca 16,173]

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ok so its pretty interesting field with some excellent odds to be had. I notice WPyke takes the ride on Perfect Jewel 6/1 is juicy odds.

You have to chuck Tom Melbourne in as a roving banker cuse you know hes gonna run 2nd.

Out of interest, how do you pick your FFs Macca. Do you prefer a standout horse if you find one. It always seems to expensive to box them all up type thing and thus i usually avoid.....but i might have a bit of a go this time.

I vary it Wadda ... depending on the depth in the field. 

A base of 3,  5,  5,  & 7 but sometimes I'll go for just the 2 winners to increase the percentage.  I'll usually have 3 roughies in the 7 with the other 4 runners being the top fancies.  $20 will get you 14% with 3 horses winning or 21% with just the 2 horses winning.

I always have a horse at good odds to win ... same for 2nd & 3rd.  I've had collects this way but no big collects (yet!) I do like systems but that might have more to do with me trying to find some sort of order in all the chaos!

3,  5 & 5 is my preferred trifecta combo - again with 2 or 3 roughies mixed in.  2,  5 & 5 sometimes.

It's not something I'd necessarily recommend,  it's just my way of doing it.

 

 

Edited December 8, 2017 by Macca

[Macca 16,173]

2 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Looks a tough race to pick Macca, I like Tom Melbourne again and will stick with him. 

Looking at the link I noticed 6 out of the last 10 Classics have been won by favourites and only 2 in double figure odds.

I don't base my selections on past runnings but I do find the history of past races interesting.

It's Somewhat' has won some very big races too ... it could be a blanket-finish D77.  My pick (Pounamu) in the Railway Stakes came flashing home to come 5th and if the horse is freshened up, the extra 200 might suit.  Very good odds too. 

I just love these WFA races ... more so 1400 metres and above although I have occasionally done ok with the 1200 metre races.  The racing calendar is chock-full of big races but I have been known to follow the big races in Europe! (May through to October) 

Here's the full list of those European Group Races  (for those who might be interested)

And once again, here's the full list of all the Australian Group Races

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 minutes ago, Macca said:

I vary it Wadda ... depending on the depth in the field. 

A base of 3,  5,  5,  & 7 but sometimes I'll just go for just 2 winners to increase the percentage.  I'll usually have 3 roughies in the 7 with the other 4 runners being the top fancies.  $20 will get you 14% or 21% (3 to win or 2 to win)

I always have a horse at good odds to win ... same for 2nd & 3rd.  I've had collects this way but no big collects (yet!) I do like systems but that might have more to do with me trying to find some sort of order in all the chaos!

3,  5 & 5 is my preferred trifecta combo - again with 2 or 3 rougies mixed in.  2,  5 & 5 sometimes.

It's not something I'd recommend,  it's just my way of doing it.

Ok interesting, ill have to sit down and have a look at that, 21% is pretty good too, as group races tend to have some money in the pools. I usually pick a standout to win, although sometimes i put it second as many picks just get beaten. If you can pick the winner, its gives you a wider range (more horses) in the other legs.....going on that theory, i hope to fluke the other 3. Maybe ill try both systems tomorrow and see how we do. 

Thanks for that Macca, most interesting.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Just had a look again at the field. Dan is holding at 7.50 and 2.50. They still rate it a soft 7 on the internet.

A friend of mine has a rule of the thumb he goes by and ive watched him win a lot over the years on strange picks. He reckons a horse should have 3 runs in and placed at their last start (so must have placed on its 3rd run).....i must admit ive used that formula myself and have often found it works. Some fields of course have multiple runners on their 3rd run with a place at the last start and some fields only have one.

Today Dan Zeph goes around the only horse in the field to have had 3 runs and was placed at his last start.....

[Dee Zephyr 17,309]

21 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Just had a look again at the field. Dan is holding at 7.50 and 2.50. They still rate it a soft 7 on the internet.

A friend of mine has a rule of the thumb he goes by and ive watched him win a lot over the years on strange picks. He reckons a horse should have 3 runs in and placed at their last start (so must have placed on its 3rd run).....i must admit ive used that formula myself and have often found it works. Some fields of course have multiple runners on their 3rd run with a place at the last start and some fields only have one.

Today Dan Zeph goes around the only horse in the field to have had 3 runs and was placed at his last start.....

I like the formula Wadda, he was $10 all day yesterday. Connections think he's a chance, track condition being the big worry. 

In saying that, he is 2 wins and two placings from 4 at the track. Both starts at this track over this distance he has run 3rd.

Due to the emotional connection for the horse I'll always have a little something on him each time he races, his best is probably past him but he could surprise today from the rear. I won't be going crazy on him.

Gosh, I've harped on about him lately, we must get him as the Demonland mascot when he retires.

Probably a good thing he's been running during this off season, its made me forget about the end of season debacle a tad.

Edited December 9, 2017 by Demon77

[Diamond_Jim 11,679]

Go the Zephyr !!

 

Pakenham Park.... remember when it was just Pakenham and a country race meeting at that.

Now it's the major Saturday venue ... Melbourne is growing ... very appropriate venue for our horse given the Casey connection.

Love the form guide.... "not the worst"

Edited December 9, 2017 by Diamond_Jim

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Jockey went the wrong way after a good start i thought. reckon he should have cut back inside, but ended up in a stash on the outside. Also wasnt suited in the ground, but he wasnt that far off in the end all things considered....

[Dee Zephyr 17,309]

2 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Jockey went the wrong way after a good start i thought. reckon he should have cut back inside, but ended up in a stash on the outside. Also wasnt suited in the ground, but he wasnt that far off in the end all things considered....

Wadda, that's exactly how I saw the race.

Jockey seemed a bit confused around the bend and ended up on the backside of 3 runners, there was clearly a run as you said on the inside provided by the winner.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

49 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Wadda, that's exactly how I saw the race.

Jockey seemed a bit confused around the bend and ended up on the backside of 3 runners, there was clearly a run as you said on the inside provided by the winner.

Yeah easy from the grandstand i guess, and split second decisions.....but hey we know that, we follow the Dees! A jockey also said after the last race, it was impossible to make up ground. The Quaddie paid 123k. Definitely a roughies day.

[Dee Zephyr 17,309]

3 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yeah easy from the grandstand i guess, and split second decisions.....but hey we know that, we follow the Dees!  A jockey also said after the last race, it was impossible to make up ground. The Quaddie paid 123k. Definitely a roughies day.

So true mate!

[Diamond_Jim 11,679]

Like the Dees "The Zephyr" will come good but I am not sure we can say he is young and inexperienced .... perhaps a run in Darwin next winter might be good for our horse

[Dee Zephyr 17,309]

20 hours ago, Macca said:

It's Somewhat' has won some very big races too ... it could be a blanket-finish D77.  My pick (Pounamu) in the Railway Stakes came flashing home to come 5th and if the horse is freshened up, the extra 200 might suit.  Very good odds too. 

I just love these WFA races ... more so 1400 metres and above although I have occasionally done ok with the 1200 metre races.  The racing calendar is chock-full of big races but I have been known to follow the big races in Europe! (May through to October) 

Here's the full list of those European Group Races  (for those who might be interested)

And once again, here's the full list of all the Australian Group Races

Should have gone with you Macca....what a run!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

On 12/8/2017 at 7:51 PM, Macca said:

The Kingston Town Classic G1 WFA (1,800m) Ascot

Saturday 9th December  7.50pm (AEDT) Prizemoney $1,000,000

A number of the horses that ran in the Railway Stakes are running in this Group 1 classic - including the winner of that event,  'Great Shot' 

Any number of horses can win it but I'm happy to have a trifecta & first 4 and include a few roughies for some value.  Great Shot is excellent value again whilst Black Heart Bart,  Tom Melbourne,  Perfect Jewel & It's Somewhat could all feature.  I'll be giving Pounamu another chance as well (it's also at very good odds)

It's a wide-open affair though ... Money Maher & Royal Star both have claims.  So it's the exotics for me with fingers crossed for the right combo!

Here's the field

 

 

 

 

Pounamu! Well picked Macca. I didnt see the vision, but it sounded like Black Heart Bart copped a big check and that was his race.....I think a lot of these are too tired now. Like you said its a long way to go to Perth.

[Macca 16,173]

1 minute ago, Demon77 said:

Should have gone with you Macca....what a run!

 

Just now, Wadda We Sing said:

Pounamu! Well picked Macca. I didnt see the vision, but it sounded like Black Heart Bart copped a big check and that was his race.....I think a lot of these are too tired now. Like you said its a long way to go to Perth.

Missed the tri & first 4 though - typical! To be fair,  I didn't have the 2nd or 3rd in either multiple.  Good dividends though.  

It's last run was the pointer,  all the same.  More than doubled it's prizemoney in one run.  A perfectly timed run from the back ... I felt that it was going to win before the turn.

But not to worry,  I bet small to win big so I'm going to miss a fair bit along the road to the big payout. 

Pounamu is a 6 year old so the horse is worth following.  It's got a really good finish. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

9 minutes ago, Macca said:

 

Missed the tri & first 4 though - typical! To be fair,  I didn't have the 2nd or 3rd in either multiple.  Good dividends though.  

It's last run was the pointer,  all the same.  More than doubled it's prizemoney in one run.  A perfectly timed run from the back ... I felt that it was going to win before the turn.

But not to worry,  I bet small to win big so I'm going to miss a fair bit along the road to the big payout. 

Pounamu is a 6 year old so the horse is worth following.  It's got a really good finish. 

FF did pay very well. I dont think many people would have had Material Man, i did, then i took it out! Also typical. I had Alchemar Star for third somehow and the Jewel of course. But yes bet small to win big, no real loss there. Onwards and upwards, might go check my small investments in Crypto currency for the 3rd time today.....was a good week for them actually.

[Macca 16,173]

25 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

FF did pay very well. I dont think many people would have had Material Man, i did, then i took it out! Also typical. I had Alchemar Star for third somehow and the Jewel of course. But yes bet small to win big, no real loss there. Onwards and upwards, might go check my small investments in Crypto currency for the 3rd time today.....was a good week for them actually.

I settled on 3 horses in the field that I thought could win so that ruled out any win & place outlays.  It's Somewhat & Great Shot were the other two I liked. 

You're right though Wadda,  same as you were right with your call with regards the Sandown Guineas.  A number of the fancied horses looked tired. 

But I don't give up easy ... I'm already looking ahead to next week at Ascot!  The AJ Scahill Stakes is another WFA race over 1400 where a few horses from the Winterbottom Stakes could well be running.  Might be another roughies race.

The following week there's another WFA race (The CB Cox Stakes - 2100m) finishing up with the Perth Cup (2400m) on New Years day. 

And then we go to the Gold Coast for the Magic Millions!

Edited December 9, 2017 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 minutes ago, Macca said:

I settled on 3 horses in the field that I though could win so that ruled out any win & place outlays.  It's Somewhat & Great Shot were the other two I liked. 

You're right though Wadda,  same as you were right with your call with regards the Sandown Guineas.  A number of the fancied horses looked tired. 

But I don't give up easy ... I'm already looking ahead to next week at Ascot!  The AJ Scahill Stakes is another WFA race over 1400 where a few horses from the Winterbottom Stakes could well be running.  Might be another roughies race.

The following week there's another WFA race (The CB Cox Stakes - 2100m) finishing up with the Perth Cup (2400m) on New Years day. 

And then we go to the Gold Coast for the Magic Millions!

Yes well pretty close though. Pounamu was certainly a good pick, and you said it would be a blanket finish also. Ok so it goes on and on..no rest for us.......well id be interested to hear your thoughts on the 1400 WFA next week.

[Macca 16,173]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yes well pretty close though. Pounamu was certainly a good pick, and you said it would be a blanket finish also. Ok so it goes on and on..no rest for us.......well id be interested to hear your thoughts on the 1400 WFA next week.

Your thoughts & D77's too (and anyone else for that matter) ... it all helps when trying to put a multiple together.  I do it with mates during the Spring & Autumn carnivals (usually via text)

A few of us (sometimes 4 or 5 of us) pick out a horse or 2 in one of the feature races and then we can bundle them up individually if we so wish.  That way you bet with each other rather than against one another.

The field & barriers for the feature races are usually out by Wed or Thurs so you can get an early heads up ... I'll post up a link to the AJ Scahill Stakes midweek if I'm online.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

4 minutes ago, Macca said:

Your thoughts & D77's too (and anyone else for that matter) ... it all helps when trying to put a multiple together.  I do it with mates during the Spring & Autumn carnivals (usually via text)

A few of us (sometimes 4 or 5 of us) pick out a horse or 2 in one of the feature races and then we can bundle them up individually if we so wish.  That way you bet with each other rather than against one another.

The field & barriers for the feature races are usually out by Wed or Thurs so you can get an early heads up ... I'll post up a link to the AJ Scahill Stakes midweek if I'm online.

How do you and your mates pick 1 or 2 horses....? We had some sort of points system going for a while but it was too complicated!! Ok post away, ill be here

[Macca 16,173]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

How do you and your mates pick 1 or 2 horses....? We had some sort of points system going for a while but it was too complicated!! Ok post away, ill be here

It's not really an organised thing Wadda ... we just text around about a particular race.  The input varies.  I usually kick things off and then wait for feedback. 

By the end of it,  there's about 4 -8 horses that get mentioned.  The first 4 is my target but some just like trifecta's or even just the quinella/exacta. 

It's way easier online - for instance,  I put Tom Melbourne & Perfect Jewel in my multiples because you & D77 liked the horses.  I had them in beforehand but the input acted as reinforcement.  I don't profess to know a great deal other than often fancying 1 or 2 horses based on form. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

4 minutes ago, Macca said:

It's not really an organised thing Wadda ... we just text around about a particular race.  The input varies.  I usually kick things off and then wait for feedback. 

By the end of it,  there's about 4 -8 horses that get mentioned.  The first 4 is my target but some just like trifecta's or even just the quinella/exacta. 

It's way easier online - for instance,  I put Tom Melbourne & Perfect Jewel in my multiples because you & D77 liked the horses.  I had them in beforehand but the input acted as reinforcement.  I don't profess to know a great deal other than often fancying 1 or 2 horses based on form. 

Ah i see ok yes thats pretty much how i do things as well. We had some sort of Quaddie system......everyone had their picks and if more than 1 person picked the same horse, then that horse would get 2 or 3 points and so on. Thus we had a range of horses and a range of points......it was pretty funny watching everyone try to figure it out, usually at the track after a few beers with about 3 mins left to get it on after the arguments finished!....Your right, online is way more sensible..

 

[Macca 16,173]

5 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ah i see ok yes thats pretty much how i do things as well. We had some sort of Quaddie system......everyone had their picks and if more than 1 person picked the same horse, then that horse would get 2 or 3 points and so on. Thus we had a range of horses and a range of points......it was pretty funny watching everyone try to figure it out, usually at the track after a few beers with about 3 mins left to get it on after the arguments finished!....Your right, online is way more sensible..

The good bit about the feature races is that they're on late in the day ... so there's all Friday evening & most of Saturday to square things up. 

Some I know like to bet all day (when they do bet) and then others are like me,  they're just interested in the big races. 

I had a small first 4 on the Zephyr race too - no good but again,  no harm done.  Oddly enough,  I nearly got it as I had Amadeus to win as well as our adopted horse.  But you've got to get all 4 in correct order to win 2k was a decent dividend when considering that 3 of the 4 were fancied runners and Amadeus came right in too.

 

[Macca 16,173]

4 Group 1's at Hong Kong tomorrow (ranging from 1200m through to 2400m) ... the event is on the free-to-air racing station as well as racing.com. 

Doubt I'll have a bet (maybe one ) but there's a number of the world's best jockeys involved (as well as the top-notch horses)

The Prizemoney is through the roof even after the conversion to AUD.  By my calculations 2 x $3million races and 2 x $4million races. 

[Dee Zephyr 17,309]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

4 Group 1's at Hong Kong tomorrow (ranging from 1200m through to 2400m) ... the event is on the free-to-air racing station as well as racing.com. 

Doubt I'll have a bet (maybe one ) but there's a number of the world's best jockeys involved (as well as the top-notch horses)

The Prizemoney is through the roof even after the conversion to AUD.  By my calculations 2 x $3million races and 2 x $4million races. 

Hong Kong provides some great racing at this time of the year and one of the most memorable and thrilling finishes I have ever seen happened back in December of 2000.

https://youtu.be/RJ3V1Ht9dW0