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Spring Carnival Caulfield

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8 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

They have come out and said the TAB system cant handle anymore numbers........ha. Its nearly 50 years since man walked on the moon, but anyway.....

Just more archaic thinking isn't it? 

Anyway,  I've narrowed it down to 5 horses Wadda ...

Humidor,  Marmelo,  Johannes Vermeer,  Almandin & Amelie's Star (for a bit of value)  All 5 into a trifecta & first 4 of some sort of configuration.  Happy to take a small percentage and hope for a big dividend. 

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Evening fellas,

I am also going Marmelo and Humidor but also having something each way on Ventura Storm with G. Boss steering. Pulled up sore after the CC but galloped strongly since. 

My youngest daughter (29) who only ever has a bet on the Cup, apparently liked the name Cismontane a couple of weeks ago so she got her husband to put $5 each way at fixed odds at....$301 & $76!  I offered her $5 last night for halves but she knocked me back!  Kids today have no respect.

Edited by ProperDee
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14 hours ago, Macca said:

Just more archaic thinking isn't it? 

Anyway,  I've narrowed it down to 5 horses Wadda ...

Humidor,  Marmelo,  Johannes Vermeer,  Almandin & Amelie's Star (for a bit of value)  All 5 into a trifecta & first 4 of some sort of configuration.  Happy to take a small percentage and hope for a big dividend. 

Cant argue with any of those. Bowman is 0-32 in Melbourne this spring apart from Winx, and has never won a Melbourne Cup. None of that means anything of course, if he wins. I know nothing about Marmelo except his Cup run which was excellent. It wet here this morning but im not sure if Flemington had any rain overnight? Probably the only other one im going to throw into multiples is Wall of Fire.

Its a very even field and will be a great race. Almandin still the one to beat. Dettori is a worry, but I trust in Lloyd. Hes by Monsun and Monsuns have won 3 out of the last 4 Melbourne Cups, Pirates of Penzance being the exception.

Darren Weir was on late night radio last night (does never sleep!) he said his runners all have the correct amount of miles in the legs and goes by the Bart Cummings racing manual. He has a 1400m training track up here with a rise at both ends so they train running uphill. He said dont worry about Humidor getting the distance, its more his position in the race. He needs to run midfield and relax and not be a leader. Hell be tracking Almandin he said as hes drawn next door.

Good luck and good punting.

Edited by Wadda We Sing
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As usual a bit of a lottery.

My usual process is to eliminate all horses who have never placed over the distance and then take it from there.

The Cup is becoming a little bit of an anachronism in modern day racing and has become even harder to relate to as more and more horses do not run in the lead up races.

Anyway I shall study the form and give my tip in an hour or so. The cool weather should favour the Europeans but as most of the horses are foreign bred who knows.

The Japanese contingent do not seem to be here this year which is a pity.

Good Luck

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So after much analysis I have narrowed it down to the following three:

6: Red Cardinal

9: Max Dynamite

21: Thomas Hobson

with of course Tiberian as the emotional bet

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1 minute ago, Diamond_Jim said:

So after much analysis I have narrowed it down to the following three:

6: Red Cardinal

9: Max Dynamite

21: Thomas Hobson

with of course Tiberian as the emotional bet

Max certainly has the points on the board a la 2015 behind Penzance.... Does anyone know if he ran last year? I cant remember....

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1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Max certainly has the points on the board a la 2015 behind Penzance.... Does anyone know if he ran last year? I cant remember....

Good morning, no he didn't, he's only had 4 runs since the 2015 cup.

He won last start overseas carrying 73kg in what I believe was an $18,000 race. Smart move I guess. Comes in at a good weight.

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6 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Good morning, no he didn't, he's only had 4 runs since the 2015 cup.

He won last start overseas carrying 73kg in what I believe was an $18,000 race. Smart move I guess. Comes in at a good weight.

Really, wow. 73kg! Is that common over there? Seems harsh. Did he have an injury.....?

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20 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Really, wow. 73kg! Is that common over there? Seems harsh. Did he have an injury.....?

Yes he was hindered by injury since the 2015 cup but reportedly still possesses a devastating sprint. 

73kg is excessive, not sure how common that is over there.

Being a quality horse maybe that was his penalty in such a weak handicap.

He paid a whopping $1.40 that day.

Edited by Demon77
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3 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Yes he was hindered by injury since the 2015 cup but reportedly still possesses a devastating sprint. 

73kg is excessive, not sure how common that is over there.

Being a quality horse maybe that was his penalty in such a weak handicap.

He paid a whopping $1.40 that day.

Certainly has a devastating sprint doesnt he...

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Absolute butcher of a ride by McEvoy on Sin to Win. Gets caught in the speed battle up the straight the first time then goes 5 wide around the turn. You total bellend.

Edited by Clintosaurus
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Hard to get excited when Lloyd Williams wins yet again but you cannot knock him for his investment in the staying side of the game.

Lovely interview with the winning jockey's daughters. Bruce was not too OTT.

Now .. onto the Oaks !!

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7 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Hard to get excited when Lloyd Williams wins yet again but you cannot knock him for his investment in the staying side of the game.

Lovely interview with the winning jockey's daughters. Bruce was not too OTT.

Now .. onto the Oaks !!

Lloyd owns in partnership with about 15 others but outside of his son Nick no-one would know who the others are. The partnership does buy a lot of horses.

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I managed to snag the trifecta, but not for too much unfortunately. I always follow Lloyd, but I went too hard on Almandin who got slaughtered by Dettori and I think the 5.5kgs extra from last year didn't help.....Thank god for Max, silly odds....was always gonna be up there and in fact carried 1 kg less than 2015, I only noticed 1min b4 the race.....

Hope everyone had a good day...

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Last day of the carnival tomorrow. I was on Bring me Roses on Oaks Day and it paid ok for the place. great run winner too good. Gai and Mr Bott have something like a strike rate of 33% this carnival. Anybody have any standouts? The pools are still pretty good. Definately some bargains out there. I got Tosen Stardom at 11/1 yesterday. Back to the 2000m hoping he strikes again. I see Aiden Obriens Taj Mahal at 34s is def overs. Gailo Chop for DK Weir is also overs at 8.00.

Can Chautaqua do it one more time after being scratched at the barriers last start? I also like Redkirk Warrior in that race. As for the rest, cant go past Geelong Cup winner Venguer Masque and Gallic Chieftain in the Queen Elizabeth. Other races too hard for me. What do you guys think?

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2 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Last day of the carnival tomorrow. I was on Bring me Roses on Oaks Day and it paid ok for the place. great run winner too good. Gai and Mr Bott have something like a strike rate of 33% this carnival. Anybody have any standouts? The pools are still pretty good. Definately some bargains out there. I got Tosen Stardom at 11/1 yesterday. Back to the 2000m hoping he strikes again. I see Aiden Obriens Taj Mahal at 34s is def overs. Gailo Chop for DK Weir is also overs at 8.00.

Can Chautaqua do it one more time after being scratched at the barriers last start? I also like Redkirk Warrior in that race. As for the rest, cant go past Geelong Cup winner Venguer Masque and Gallic Chieftain in the Queen Elizabeth. Other races too hard for me. What do you guys think?

I did like Tom Melbourne when markets first opened up but I see they scratched it so I'll have to do some more reading later on. 

On another note a friends horse is running on Sunday at Ararat in the China Bowl. Dan Zephyr is the name, he won the same race last year. Connections bypassed a Group 3 at Flemington for this race.

The horse is 3rd up this preparation, last run wasn't very good but first up he was unlucky as he was boxed in and couldn't get a clear run. 

I'll have more information tomorrow to see if it's worth a few bucks. 

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2 hours ago, Demon77 said:

I did like Tom Melbourne when markets first opened up but I see they scratched it so I'll have to do some more reading later on. 

On another note a friends horse is running on Sunday at Ararat in the China Bowl. Dan Zephyr is the name, he won the same race last year. Connections bypassed a Group 3 at Flemington for this race.

The horse is 3rd up this preparation, last run wasn't very good but first up he was unlucky as he was boxed in and couldn't get a clear run. 

I'll have more information tomorrow to see if it's worth a few bucks. 

Yes indeed do that D77. Dont mind having the odd punt in the country, since i live in it these days! I have had a horse go around in the country and its a tough gig!!

I used to live in Malmsbury and the Mnt Macedon strappers used to come down to the Malmsbury Hotel and have a beer or 7. They were all over Green Moon the year it won, telling anyone who would listen. The pub went till very late that particular Tuesday evening. So i dont mind a horse tale!

https://www.racing.com/horses/dan-zephyr

Here is the form of your mates horse. It hasn't done much lately, but has had some red hot patches earlier in its career. It will be a good price anyway. Each way perhaps? Keep us posted.

Edited by Wadda We Sing
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I'll have a go at the feature races tomorrow (races 7 & 8) ... the races were formally known as the Victoria Racing Club Stakes & the LKS McKinnon Stakes (I'm old school)

Can't go past the speedy Redzel in race 7 ... there are a number of other chances but I don't mind Vega Magic either.  Missrock may run on.

And I'll give Tosen Stardom another chance in race 8 ... the other 2 Weir horses could feature (Gailo Chop & Cliff's Edge)

As always,  it's the trifecta & first 4 for me.  Just missed on Oaks day so am looking for a win. 

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10 minutes ago, Macca said:

I'll have a go at the feature races tomorrow (races 7 & 8) ... the races were formally known as the Victoria Racing Club Stakes & the LKS McKinnon Stakes (I'm old school)

Can't go past the speedy Redzel in race 7 ... there are a number of other chances but I don't mind Vega Magic either.  Missrock may run on.

And I'll give Tosen Stardom another chance in race 8 ... the other 2 Weir horses could feature (Gailo Chop & Cliff's Edge)

As always,  it's the trifecta & first 4 for me.  Just missed on Oaks day so am looking for a win. 

Missrock has been a tad costly for me in the past but at those odds she might be worth a little each way.

If it's a hot pace she may indeed run on Macca.

 

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2 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yes indeed do that D77. Dont mind having the odd punt in the country, since i live in it these days! I have had a horse go around in the country and its a tough gig!!

I used to live in Malmsbury and the Mnt Macedon strappers used to come down to the Malmsbury Hotel and have a beer or 7. They were all over Green Moon the year it won, telling anyone who would listen. The pub went till very late that particular Tuesday evening. So i dont mind a horse tale!

https://www.racing.com/horses/dan-zephyr

Here is the form of your mates horse. It hasn't done much lately, but has had some red hot patches earlier in its career. It will be a good price anyway. Each way perhaps? Keep us posted.

Nice tale Wadda.

Dan Zephyr was certainly hot a couple of years ago winning 3 in a row in town. My mate is not a fan of Rhys McLeod but he seems to be the Pat Carey stable jockey.

Michael Dee has a better strike rate on the horse. 

I see it's drawn wide and does it's best racing on pace so it might have to work early unless they change tactics.

 

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1 hour ago, Demon77 said:

Missrock has been a tad costly for me in the past but at those odds she might be worth a little each way.

If it's a hot pace she may indeed run on Macca.

 

Late mail ...

Darley Classic: Ben Smith wants group 1 accolade for 'In Her Time'

Quote

The sprinting mare celebrated her birth date on Thursday and goes into the Darley Classic as one of the top picks in betting but still has a point to prove. She missed out on The Everest, but ran a quicker time than Redzel, and in five shots at group 1 level she has two seconds, a third and two fifths.

 

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9 hours ago, Macca said:

I'll have a go at the feature races tomorrow (races 7 & 8) ... the races were formally known as the Victoria Racing Club Stakes & the LKS McKinnon Stakes (I'm old school)

 

The multiple name changes have done nothing to maintain the sense of history in these races. I can stand the Emirates Melbourne Cup etc but when they drop the name of the race altogether they start to lose me.

I still remember the Carbine Club Stakes etc.

As an aside the race quality on Cup day other than the Cup itself leaves a lot to be desired.

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On 11/10/2017 at 4:57 PM, Demon77 said:

I did like Tom Melbourne when markets first opened up but I see they scratched it so I'll have to do some more reading later on. 

On another note a friends horse is running on Sunday at Ararat in the China Bowl. Dan Zephyr is the name, he won the same race last year. Connections bypassed a Group 3 at Flemington for this race.

The horse is 3rd up this preparation, last run wasn't very good but first up he was unlucky as he was boxed in and couldn't get a clear run. 

I'll have more information tomorrow to see if it's worth a few bucks. 

I had a quick look at Ararat on the Tote.......Dan Zephyr was 39. Great odds!

Edited by Wadda We Sing
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Ok, perhaps that was the very early market, now DZ is into a more reasonable 13/1

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54 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ok, perhaps that was the very early market, now DZ is into a more reasonable 13/1

Might be worth a look ... and we've got Sandown next week and then Ascot and all the other upcoming group races.  I usually have a small wager most weeks (feature races only) I find the fields for the WFA & Group races easier to interpret.  Doing the form for just 1 or 2 races takes a lot less time too. 

Haven't been to Sandown for yonks but I vaguely remember winning a bit on a horse called Baryshnikov one time ... it might have won on Derby day 2 weeks earlier too.  But the memory isn't as flash as it once was :ph34r:

Anyway,  here's a list of all the group races for the rest of the season going into next year ... Australian Group Races (after entering the website you can click on any of the listed group races for information about that particular race and it's past winners & placegetters)

 

 

 

 

 

.

Edited by Macca
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