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Spring Carnival Caulfield

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On 1/1/2018 at 10:18 PM, Macca said:

Ha ha!  Again,  just a great story D77.  As much as it's a gambling sport, the stories that surround the winning & the losing of these major races is very real for the participants. 

I really do like seeing people achieve their lifelong ambitions.  It's part of what attracts me to these group races ... they are quite literally life-changers. 

Anyway,  we've got the Magic Millions coming up on the 13th of Jan but I may have a nibble at Japan & HK next weekend (there's 3 or 4 Group 3's on show - all with very healthy prize-pools)

And for those who haven't seen the Perth Cup,  here it is as well as the interviews afterwards et al ...

 

Thanks for that Macca, i was unfortunately MIA on new years day due to a lock in at my local here....had to have rest. Pounamu!! how did he not win?? Love to see the photo! I will also be on the band wagon if he comes here, what a run.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Thanks for that Macca, i was unfortunately MIA on new years day due to a lock in at my local here....had to have rest. Pounamu!! how did he not win?? Love to see the photo! I will also be on the band wagon if he comes here, what a run.

Hope all is well there Wadda ...

Pounamu has found it's true form and is worth following up on.  I do like horses that swoop late ... 'Art Series' is another horse from the Ascot carnival to look out for down the track. 

Aside from the big Magic Millions meeting on the 13th Jan,  there's not a lot happening with regards feature races until the Autumn carnival kicks off in February.  However,  there's 1 or 2 Stakes races most weekends to keep things interesting. 

For those that are interested here's a list of all the Group and Stakes races for the entire Australian season.

I did find a G3 race at Sha Tin on Sunday to have a go at though - only 8 runners but 3 stand out and all 3 are well down in the weights from their lead-in runs.  Those 3 horses are the 2, 4 & 5 and I'll put together a Tri & F4 and hope that some sort of combination comes through with the goods.  The 7 & 8 could get into the minor placings as well. 

Sha Tin (Hong Kong) Sunday 7th Jan Race 7 (The G3 Bauhinia Sprint 1000m 7.10pm)

Edited by Macca
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Posted (edited)
On 05/01/2018 at 11:05 PM, Macca said:

Hope all is well there Wadda ...

Pounamu has found it's true form and is worth following up on.  I do like horses that swoop late ... 'Art Series' is another horse from the Ascot carnival to look out for down the track. 

Aside from the big Magic Millions meeting on the 13th Jan,  there's not a lot happening with regards feature races until the Autumn carnival kicks off in February.  However,  there's 1 or 2 Stakes races most weekends to keep things interesting. 

For those that are interested here's a list of all the Group and Stakes races for the entire Australian season.

I did find a G3 race at Sha Tin on Sunday to have a go at though - only 8 runners but 3 stand out and all 3 are well down in the weights from their lead-in runs.  Those 3 horses are the 2, & and I'll put together a Tri & F4 and hope that some sort of combination comes through with the goods.  The 7 & 8 could get into the minor placings as well. 

Sha Tin (Hong Kong) Sunday 7th Jan Race 7 (The G3 Bauhinia Sprint 1000m 7.10pm)

Hi Macca, once again spot on with your selections. I hope you got some kind of return with the right combination.  The 7 was showing $62 on the tote at the jump.

Edited by Demon77
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2 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Hi Macca, once again spot on with your selections. I hope you got some kind of return with the right combination.  The 7 was showing $62 on the tote at the jump.

Got 33% of the Tri D77 but missed the First 4 because of the topweight running 4th.  I ended up putting the 6 in for the placings otherwise I might have got 100% of the dividend!  ha ha

The 7 and 8 were way overs but they'd both been running against the 2,  4 & 5. in the lead-up races.  Running 5th a few times (the pair) Premiere got a great run.

Anyway ... onto the Magic Millions we go ... the Cup race might do me at the big meet as the feature 2yo & 3yo races are a bit of a lottery.  Any of the horses in those events might shine through.

The Cup race is over 1400m with a million up for grabs.

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On 01/05/2018 at 10:31 PM, Wadda We Sing said:

 

 

48 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

 

 

Keep forgetting to ask about how either of you are faring or if you even have a flutter at this time of year? 

I tend to bet the same way all year round ... a trifecta on a feature race or 2 most weekends (when they're up) and that's about it.

First 4's sometimes but they are really hard to get unless one throws the field in for 4th (and by doing that you often end up with a low percantage of the dividend)

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3 minutes ago, Macca said:

 

 

Keep forgetting to ask about how either of you are faring or if you even have a flutter at this time of year? 

I tend to bet the same way all year round ... a trifecta on a feature race or 2 most weekends (when they're up) and that's about it.

First 4's sometimes but they are really hard to get unless one throws the field in for 4th (and by doing that you often end up with a low percantage of the dividend)

I enjoy having a flutter during the carnivals and will do as much study as possible. I tend to mix it up during those times with quinellas, trifectas and first fours. I will back a horse to win if I believe it's overs in the betting. I finished slightly in front during the spring. I haven't had much success after the carnival but no great damage done either.

This time of the year I rely on a work colleague for tips, he has a horse with the Weir stable and gets some good word on horses, especially mid-week. The fields aren't as strong and you get some decent value for runners. I was going to share a tip yesterday on here but the Mornington meeting was called off. The horse is Von Richter, I'll see if it's worth following next run. 

I'll always have a small bet on the Zephyr when and where he runs and I've been following your selections lately for races you mention. I'll invest a small amount with a small combination to boost the percentage, today the 7 split me and I missed out on the tri.

Silly me, in hindsight I could've taken your top selections for 1st and added the 7 and 8 for second and third.

I look forward to your Magic Millions selections, it's usually a great racing day. There is a $242,000 Maiden Plate on the day with $142,500 for first.

Not bad for a first time winner compared to the horses that slug it out in $15,000 maidens around the country.

 

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3 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

I enjoy having a flutter during the carnivals and will do as much study as possible. I tend to mix it up during those times with quinellas, trifectas and first fours. I will back a horse to win if I believe it's overs in the betting. I finished slightly in front during the spring. I haven't had much success after the carnival but no great damage done either.

This time of the year I rely on a work colleague for tips, he has a horse with the Weir stable and gets some good word on horses, especially mid-week. The fields aren't as strong and you get some decent value for runners. I was going to share a tip yesterday on here but the Mornington meeting was called off. The horse is Von Richter, I'll see if it's worth following next run. 

I'll always have a small bet on the Zephyr when and where he runs and I've been following your selections lately for races you mention. I'll invest a small amount with a small combination to boost the percentage, today the 7 split me and I missed out on the tri.

Silly me, in hindsight I could've taken your top selections for 1st and added the 7 and 8 for second and third.

I look forward to your Magic Millions selections, it's usually a great racing day. There is a $242,000 Maiden Plate on the day with $142,500 for first.

Not bad for a first time winner compared to the horses that slug it out in $15,000 maidens around the country.

Yep ... the prizemoney on offer is remarkable  for the Magic Millions meeting.  As previosly mentioned, I'll have a go at the 1400m Cup race and will probably have a few 'Interest' bets on the other feature races. 

There's not a lot of sport happening on Saturday arvo's now so the races takes centre-stage.  Even in the footy season we rarely play on a Saturday arvo so the Brisbane & Adelaide carnivals fits nicely after the Autumn Carnival.

And the big races from Europe kicks off in early May as well ... there are any number of Set Weight or WFA races to hold my interest.  'Winx' travelling over there for a few races adds to the interest.

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6 minutes ago, Macca said:

Yep ... the prizemoney on offer is remarkable  for the Magic Millions meeting.  As previosly mentioned, I'll have a go at the 1400m Cup race and will probably have a few 'Interest' bets on the other feature races. 

There's not a lot of sport happening on Saturday arvo's now so the races takes centre-stage.  Even in the footy season we rarely play on a Saturday arvo so the Brisbane & Adelaide carnivals fits nicely after the Autumn Carnival.

And the big races from Europe kicks off in early May as well ... there are any number of Set Weight or WFA races to hold my interest.  'Winx' travelling over there for a few races adds to the interest.

The Brisbane winter carnival is one my favourites.

I lived in Brisbane from 2011-14 and would frequent the local on Saturdays to watch the Dees with the races in the background. With our performances during that time it wasn't hard to turn your attention to the races.

I attended Stradbroke Handicap Day one year whilst up there. It was a great day out with many quality horses running. Best part was you didn't have to push through 100,000 people to get to a bar. 

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21 hours ago, Macca said:

 

 

Keep forgetting to ask about how either of you are faring or if you even have a flutter at this time of year? 

I tend to bet the same way all year round ... a trifecta on a feature race or 2 most weekends (when they're up) and that's about it.

First 4's sometimes but they are really hard to get unless one throws the field in for 4th (and by doing that you often end up with a low percantage of the dividend)

To be honest i dont bet much outside of the carnivals. I like to do a bit of margin multi betting on say 4 to 6 matches under or over 39.5pts....So many times the Dees are under 39.5pt winners, so its an easy leg as are Sydney winning many close games.

I also recently discovered online stock broking where you can buy shares and login everyday to see if your up or down. Its quite fun and then theres Crypto Currencies which have really caught my eye. I have made some big percentage gains on some of the newer coins lately, but its a whole other conversation really. Still very akin to punting tho

Keep the tips coming guys!

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Posted (edited)

This is by no means a tip but 'Sunlight' ran a sizzling time in a 2yo race at the Gold Coast on Saturday ... it ran 01:02.48 over the 1100m and won in a canter by 5 lengths.  It is entered for the 1200m Magic Millions 2yo Classic and must be some sort of a show after that run (and it carried 58kg on Saturday as opposed to the 55kgs it will carry next Saturday)  There's any number of other chances though.

More on 'Sunlight' here ... Daylight to Sunlight's rivals as filly shines before Magic Millions (includes video of Sunlight's win on Saturday)

Might be tempted to take Sunlight 'one-out' to win in a First 4 ... however, finding the 2nd,  3rd & 4th will be more than tricky.  It's similar to how one might go about it with horses like 'Winx'

The Hayes horse (Nomothaj) did beat Sunlight in the Maribyrnong Trial Stakes back in October.  Jonker & Ef Troop are both heavily favoured as well.  It's a tough race to find all the clear-cut good horses that can feature.

Edited by Macca
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Might try my luck in the last race at the Gold Coast tomorrow ...

Race 9 Magic Millions Snippets 5.40pm  1200m  970k  3Y0+  SW&P

I reckon the winner will come from ViddoraDothraki or Snitzcraft and for the minor placings I'll also throw in Pinch River,  Egyptian Symbol & Irish Constabulary.  Trifecta and maybe a First 4 as well. 

The other races on the card at the Gold Coast holds a lot of interest and I'll have a few smaller trifecta's on the 2yo Classic,  the 3yo Guineas & the Cup Race.  As mentioned in a previous post SunlightJonkerEf Troop & Nomothaj are all in with a big show in the 2yo Classic but there's a number of other chances including Quackerjack & Fullazaboot.  A very tough race to find the right Tri or F4 combo. 

As always, good punting to all!

Edited by Macca
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Well well, the good horses won today at the Magic Millions and the quaddie was all there for the taking (not that it paid much!)  Not for me though,  money back on the 9th but no other collects. 

  • Sunlight wins the 2yo Classic and looks to have a terrific future and is now being set for the 'Slipper'
  • Care to Think won the cup race after drawing badly and being 3 wide for the race
  • Pierata won the Guineas in very impressive fashion - another 3yo with a bright future.
  • Viddora can really sprint (the horse is being set for 'The Everest')
Edited by Macca
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23 hours ago, Macca said:

Well well, the good horses won today at the Magic Millions and the quaddie was all there for the taking (not that it paid much!)  Not for me though,  money back on the 9th but no other collects. 

  • Sunlight wins the 2yo Classic and looks to have a terrific future and is now being set for the 'Slipper'
  • Care to Think won the cup race after drawing badly and being 3 wide for the race
  • Pierata won the Guineas in very impressive fashion - another 3yo with a bright future.
  • Viddora can really sprint (the horse is being set for 'The Everest')

Unfortunately i missed the afternoon, but from the results there are some good results there and some spot on tips. Love ya work.

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40 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Unfortunately i missed the afternoon, but from the results there are some good results there and some spot on tips. Love ya work.

Yep Wadda,  I reckon keeping up a bit of an interest between the Carnivals helps when the Carnivals come around.  We develop an eye for the good horses so when they pop up again it makes distinguishing the form easier. 

There will be a few horses coming over from the Ascot carnival and the same goes for those that ran at the Gold Coast yesterday.  Those 4 horses that won the feature races yesterday are all worth following up on.  All won well and all ran sizzling times. 

'Care to Think' was just off running the track record (it ran 1:20.72 for the 1400m) yet had to come from the outside barrier and was 3-wide all the way.  Viddora carried 59kg and could be anything.  Sunlight is a real speedster whilst Pierata looks a gun 3yo.

Edited by Macca
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16 hours ago, Macca said:

Yep Wadda,  I reckon keeping up a bit of an interest between the Carnivals helps when the Carnivals come around.  We develop an eye for the good horses so when they pop up again it makes distinguishing the form easier. 

There will be a few horses coming over from the Ascot carnival and the same goes for those that ran at the Gold Coast yesterday.  Those 4 horses that won the feature races yesterday are all worth following up on.  All won well and all ran sizzling times. 

'Care to Think' was just off running the track record (it ran 1:20.72 for the 1400m) yet had to come from the outside barrier and was 3-wide all the way.  Viddora carried 59kg and could be anything.  Sunlight is a real speedster whilst Pierata looks a gun 3yo.

Yep spot on. So many times i look at the form for carnivals and wonder where all the horses come from, so many unfamiliar names. Well this time i will have a bit of a heads up. Certainly we have identified some top quality horses, some of whom may go under the radar coming into the Autumn. Its not far away now.

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Dan Zephyr has accepted for Flemington this Saturday. 

It looks like connections are trying hard to get the horse another win but the current odds suggest otherwise. As far as I am aware they will run him.

https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/flemington-20180120/vrc-young-members-handicap-race-9

Lets hope he starts the year a lot better than how he finished the last.

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1 hour ago, Demon77 said:

Dan Zephyr has accepted for Flemington this Saturday. 

It looks like connections are trying hard to get the horse another win but the current odds suggest otherwise. As far as I am aware they will run him.

https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/flemington-20180120/vrc-young-members-handicap-race-9

Lets hope he starts the year a lot better than how he finished the last.

There's not a great deal happening until about mid February D77 so the Zephyr race keeps the interest.  It's not a bad looking field but you never know.  The 3 (Wise Hero) has only ever run the 1400m once but it won in 1:22.42 and it was at Flemington (in it's last start)  Looks the horse to beat. The 10 & 12 have claims too. 

The preceding races - Inglis Dash (Race 7) and the Kensington Stakes (Race 8) are both interesting races ... smaller fields but that suits me (less horses to eliminate for the Tri's!)

The Kensington Stakes in particular is a wide-open affair ... only 8 runners but nearly all the starters could feature in the finish.

Edited by Macca
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On 1/18/2018 at 8:16 PM, Macca said:

There's not a great deal happening until about mid February D77 so the Zephyr race keeps the interest.  It's not a bad looking field but you never know.  The 3 (Wise Hero) has only ever run the 1400m once but it won in 1:22.42 and it was at Flemington (in it's last start)  Looks the horse to beat. The 10 & 12 have claims too. 

The preceding races - Inglis Dash (Race 7) and the Kensington Stakes (Race 8) are both interesting races ... smaller fields but that suits me (less horses to eliminate for the Tri's!)

The Kensington Stakes in particular is a wide-open affair ... only 8 runners but nearly all the starters could feature in the finish.

Yes, its a strange time of year for sport in general if your not into tennis. I will follow the Zephyr again like the faithful supporter against all odds that i am well trained in being a Dees supporter. You really have to get them to run him in the Red and the Blue D77, and he may just fall over the line! Hopefully Flemington will bring out his best. Keep us up to speed with any late mail. Hopefully its not too hot for the horseys today.

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42 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yes, its a strange time of year for sport in general if your not into tennis. I will follow the Zephyr again like the faithful supporter against all odds that i am well trained in being a Dees supporter. You really have to get them to run him in the Red and the Blue D77, and he may just fall over the line! Hopefully Flemington will bring out his best. Keep us up to speed with any late mail. Hopefully its not too hot for the horseys today.

I'm into the NFL but that's nearly done Wadda - games are on Monday morning too which isn't exactly the weekend!  The EPL for similar reasons.

I'll get into the tennis from this weekend - Ash Barty is playing later this afternoon whilst Roger & Novak are both engaged in matches this evening. 

The Autumn carnival is just around the corner though (Feb 10) ... kicking off with one my favourite events - The CF Orr Stakes.  As you well know, it's then full on for another 10 weekends!

I may have mentioned this here before but the Demons only play 2 Saturday arvo games this season (plus 2 Saturday twilight games) so it's the horses all year round for me. 

Just a couple of small Tri's today though with nothing to recommend especially.  I do like 'Wise Hero' in the Zephyr race - it is up a couple of kg's against its rivals though.  'Amber Sky' back from running well at Sha Tin is a speedy one which I've included in multiples (it's in the preceding race - The Kensington Stakes)

Anyway, let's hope that the Dan can get into the finish today

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2 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yes, its a strange time of year for sport in general if your not into tennis. I will follow the Zephyr again like the faithful supporter against all odds that i am well trained in being a Dees supporter. You really have to get them to run him in the Red and the Blue D77, and he may just fall over the line! Hopefully Flemington will bring out his best. Keep us up to speed with any late mail. Hopefully its not too hot for the horseys today.

No update as yet but at those odds I will have something each way just in case the Zephyr gets up.

My mate says the horse has to win a race eventually....today seems as good a time as any.:D

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1 hour ago, Macca said:

I'm into the NFL but that's nearly done Wadda - games are on Monday morning too which isn't exactly the weekend!  The EPL for similar reasons.

I'll get into the tennis from this weekend - Ash Barty is playing later this afternoon whilst Roger & Novak are both engaged in matches this evening. 

The Autumn carnival is just around the corner though (Feb 10) ... kicking off with one my favourite events - The CF Orr Stakes.  As you well know, it's then full on for another 10 weekends!

I may have mentioned this here before but the Demons only play 2 Saturday arvo games this season (plus 2 Saturday twilight games) so it's the horses all year round for me. 

Just a couple of small Tri's today though with nothing to recommend especially.  I do like 'Wise Hero' in the Zephyr race - it is up a couple of kg's against its rivals though.  'Amber Sky' back from running well at Sha Tin is a speedy one which I've included in multiples (it's in the preceding race - The Kensington Stakes)

Anyway, let's hope that the Dan can get into the finish today

G'Day Macca, hard to go past Wise Hero in my opinion also. Malaise is the other one I fancy, I will try and put some sort of trifecta with Dan in there. 

Malaise ran almost a second slower than Wise Hero in winning its last start over the same distance and what looked a similar grade also.

Like you stated, if Wise Hero runs anywhere near the time he ran last start it would be hard to beat.

It would be nice to get a collect today and fund the upcoming Autumn Carnival.

Edited by Demon77
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1 hour ago, Demon77 said:

G'Day Macca, hard to go past Wise Hero in my opinion also. Malaise is the other one I fancy, I will try and put some sort of trifecta with Dan in there. 

Malaise ran almost a second slower than Wise Hero in winning its last start over the same distance and what looked a similar grade also.

Like you stated, if Wise Hero runs anywhere near the time he ran last start it would be hard to beat.

It would be nice to get a collect today and fund the upcoming Autumn Carnival.

Comparing times is tricky D77 because races are often run at different tempo's ... but if a horse is a clear winner and runs a quick time then that is often a good sign that the horse has genuine speed. 

It's what caught my eye with Sunlight ... it won in a canter with a very fast time in the lead-up to the 2yo Classic last week. 

Wise Hero with Malaise & The Avenger are my 3 top picks in the Zephyr race but I've included the Dan and 1 or 2 others in a Tri. 

By the way,  for those who may not know,  one second generally converts to 16-17 metres or 5-6 lengths. 

Weight is another big factor for me especially over the longer distances ... for instance,  Civil Disobedience carrying 60kgs in race 3 proved too much over the 2000.  It was easy to make a case for the 5-4 Favourite to be beaten.   But watch out for the horse when it meets its rivals on equal terms.

It's why I prefer to bet on WFA or Set Weight races.

Edited by Macca
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The 2 on top ended up fighting out the finish @Demon77... the winner (Malaise) probably had a slightly easier run than Wise Hero.  Dan Zephyr set the pace for the first 800m but just tired in the last 2 furlongs. 

I found a decent Group race to bet on (tomorrow) ... The Hong Kong Classic Mile The race is for 4yo (C & G) only,  set weights at 57kgs.  Worth a cool 1.5 million and is on at 8.10pm.

 

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17 minutes ago, Macca said:

The 2 on top ended up fighting out the finish @Demon77... the winner (Malaise) probably had a slightly easier run than Wise Hero.  Dan Zephyr set the pace for the first 800m but just tired in the last 2 furlongs. 

I found a decent Group race to bet on (tomorrow) ... The Hong Kong Classic Mile The race is for 4yo (C & G) only,  set weights at 57kgs.  Worth a cool 1.5 million and is on at 8.10pm.

 

Well i managed to snag 3 quaddie legs yet again with a 4 dollar quaddie. I like to put on small ones as it stops you throwing in every damn horse and doing your homework. I missed on RocknGold, because i dont like Chris Symonds, lost on him too many times....that will teach me. Gee it paid ok ..over 900.

The Zephyr really gives you a run for your money.....a lot like the Dees do!! I think the weight beat him. I really dont understand why he carries 59.5? Its not like hes won a heap of races.......

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1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Well i managed to snag 3 quaddie legs yet again with a 4 dollar quaddie. I like to put on small ones as it stops you throwing in every damn horse and doing your homework. I missed on RocknGold, because i dont like Chris Symonds, lost on him too many times....that will teach me. Gee it paid ok ..over 900.

The Zephyr really gives you a run for your money.....a lot like the Dees do!! I think the weight beat him. I really dont understand why he carries 59.5? Its not like hes won a heap of races.......

You went close Wadda - that 8th race was a wide-open affair ... small field too.  Rock 'N' Gold was overdue for a win but any of the 8 horses could have featured. 

There was an eye-catching run from 'Nature Strip' in the Inglis Dash - set for the Rubiton Stakes now and then maybe the Oakleigh Plate. 

I got 50% of the Tri in the last which amounted to the grand sum of money back! - but I'll take that.  A collect is a collect.

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