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A Day at the Races


Toorak

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1 minute ago, Demon77 said:

Received a text about the Zephyr a short time ago and it goes a little something like this.

Pat Carey has decided to run the horse tomorrow. They view the wide barrier as an opportunity to alter his racing pattern for the race.

They will ride the horse cold and see if he can run on, only once has he raced at the back of the field and although not by choice that day the horse rattled home for a close third.

The track is a concern but apparently Pakenham has a really good drainage system in place and the track should dry up a bit.

 

 

Ok, its game on for the Zeph! Thats great txt, been a long time since ive seen one of those. Theres a bit of wind around so the track might dry out. Interesting about riding the horse cold. Maybe thats the key! Who knows....thanks D77. Ill be watching with great interest. Lets hope theres no rain overnight.

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1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ok so its pretty interesting field with some excellent odds to be had. I notice WPyke takes the ride on Perfect Jewel 6/1 is juicy odds.

You have to chuck Tom Melbourne in as a roving banker cuse you know hes gonna run 2nd.

Out of interest, how do you pick your FFs Macca. Do you prefer a standout horse if you find one. It always seems to expensive to box them all up type thing and thus i usually avoid.....but i might have a bit of a go this time.

I vary it Wadda ... depending on the depth in the field. 

A base of 3,  5,  5,  & 7 but sometimes I'll go for just the 2 winners to increase the percentage.  I'll usually have 3 roughies in the 7 with the other 4 runners being the top fancies.  $20 will get you 14% with 3 horses winning or 21% with just the 2 horses winning.

I always have a horse at good odds to win ... same for 2nd & 3rd.  I've had collects this way but no big collects (yet!) I do like systems but that might have more to do with me trying to find some sort of order in all the chaos!

3,  5 & 5 is my preferred trifecta combo - again with 2 or 3 roughies mixed in.  2,  5 & 5 sometimes.

It's not something I'd necessarily recommend,  it's just my way of doing it.

 

 

Edited by Macca
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2 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Looks a tough race to pick Macca, I like Tom Melbourne again and will stick with him. 

Looking at the link I noticed 6 out of the last 10 Classics have been won by favourites and only 2 in double figure odds.

I don't base my selections on past runnings but I do find the history of past races interesting.

It's Somewhat' has won some very big races too ... it could be a blanket-finish D77.  My pick (Pounamu) in the Railway Stakes came flashing home to come 5th and if the horse is freshened up, the extra 200 might suit.  Very good odds too. 

I just love these WFA races ... more so 1400 metres and above although I have occasionally done ok with the 1200 metre races.  The racing calendar is chock-full of big races but I have been known to follow the big races in Europe! (May through to October) 

Here's the full list of those European Group Races  (for those who might be interested)

And once again, here's the full list of all the Australian Group Races

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2 minutes ago, Macca said:

I vary it Wadda ... depending on the depth in the field. 

A base of 3,  5,  5,  & 7 but sometimes I'll just go for just 2 winners to increase the percentage.  I'll usually have 3 roughies in the 7 with the other 4 runners being the top fancies.  $20 will get you 14% or 21% (3 to win or 2 to win)

I always have a horse at good odds to win ... same for 2nd & 3rd.  I've had collects this way but no big collects (yet!) I do like systems but that might have more to do with me trying to find some sort of order in all the chaos!

3,  5 & 5 is my preferred trifecta combo - again with 2 or 3 rougies mixed in.  2,  5 & 5 sometimes.

It's not something I'd recommend,  it's just my way of doing it.

Ok interesting, ill have to sit down and have a look at that, 21% is pretty good too, as group races tend to have some money in the pools. I usually pick a standout to win, although sometimes i put it second as many picks just get beaten. If you can pick the winner, its gives you a wider range (more horses) in the other legs.....going on that theory, i hope to fluke the other 3. Maybe ill try both systems tomorrow and see how we do. 

Thanks for that Macca, most interesting.

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Just had a look again at the field. Dan is holding at 7.50 and 2.50. They still rate it a soft 7 on the internet.

A friend of mine has a rule of the thumb he goes by and ive watched him win a lot over the years on strange picks. He reckons a horse should have 3 runs in and placed at their last start (so must have placed on its 3rd run).....i must admit ive used that formula myself and have often found it works. Some fields of course have multiple runners on their 3rd run with a place at the last start and some fields only have one.

Today Dan Zeph goes around the only horse in the field to have had 3 runs and was placed at his last start.....

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21 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Just had a look again at the field. Dan is holding at 7.50 and 2.50. They still rate it a soft 7 on the internet.

A friend of mine has a rule of the thumb he goes by and ive watched him win a lot over the years on strange picks. He reckons a horse should have 3 runs in and placed at their last start (so must have placed on its 3rd run).....i must admit ive used that formula myself and have often found it works. Some fields of course have multiple runners on their 3rd run with a place at the last start and some fields only have one.

Today Dan Zeph goes around the only horse in the field to have had 3 runs and was placed at his last start.....

I like the formula Wadda, he was $10 all day yesterday. Connections think he's a chance, track condition being the big worry. 

In saying that, he is 2 wins and two placings from 4 at the track. Both starts at this track over this distance he has run 3rd.

Due to the emotional connection for the horse I'll always have a little something on him each time he races, his best is probably past him but he could surprise today from the rear. I won't be going crazy on him.

Gosh, I've harped on about him lately, we must get him as the Demonland mascot when he retires.:)

Probably a good thing he's been running during this off season, its made me forget about the end of season debacle a tad.

Edited by Demon77
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Go the Zephyr !!

 

Pakenham Park.... remember when it was just Pakenham and a country race meeting at that.

Now it's the major Saturday venue ... Melbourne is growing ... very appropriate venue for our horse given the Casey connection.

Love the form guide.... "not the worst" :)

Edited by Diamond_Jim
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Jockey went the wrong way after a good start i thought. reckon he should have cut back inside, but ended up in a stash on the outside. Also wasnt suited in the ground, but he wasnt that far off in the end all things considered....

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2 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Jockey went the wrong way after a good start i thought. reckon he should have cut back inside, but ended up in a stash on the outside. Also wasnt suited in the ground, but he wasnt that far off in the end all things considered....

Wadda, that's exactly how I saw the race.

Jockey seemed a bit confused around the bend and ended up on the backside of 3 runners, there was clearly a run as you said on the inside provided by the winner.

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49 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Wadda, that's exactly how I saw the race.

Jockey seemed a bit confused around the bend and ended up on the backside of 3 runners, there was clearly a run as you said on the inside provided by the winner.

Yeah easy from the grandstand i guess, and split second decisions.....but hey we know that, we follow the Dees! A jockey also said after the last race, it was impossible to make up ground. The Quaddie paid 123k. Definitely a roughies day.

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3 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yeah easy from the grandstand i guess, and split second decisions.....but hey we know that, we follow the Dees!  A jockey also said after the last race, it was impossible to make up ground. The Quaddie paid 123k. Definitely a roughies day.

So true mate!

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20 hours ago, Macca said:

It's Somewhat' has won some very big races too ... it could be a blanket-finish D77.  My pick (Pounamu) in the Railway Stakes came flashing home to come 5th and if the horse is freshened up, the extra 200 might suit.  Very good odds too. 

I just love these WFA races ... more so 1400 metres and above although I have occasionally done ok with the 1200 metre races.  The racing calendar is chock-full of big races but I have been known to follow the big races in Europe! (May through to October) 

Here's the full list of those European Group Races  (for those who might be interested)

And once again, here's the full list of all the Australian Group Races

Should have gone with you Macca....what a run!

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On 12/8/2017 at 7:51 PM, Macca said:

The Kingston Town Classic G1 WFA (1,800m) Ascot

Saturday 9th December  7.50pm (AEDT) Prizemoney $1,000,000

A number of the horses that ran in the Railway Stakes are running in this Group 1 classic - including the winner of that event,  'Great Shot' 

Any number of horses can win it but I'm happy to have a trifecta & first 4 and include a few roughies for some value.  Great Shot is excellent value again whilst Black Heart Bart,  Tom Melbourne,  Perfect Jewel & It's Somewhat could all feature.  I'll be giving Pounamu another chance as well (it's also at very good odds)

It's a wide-open affair though ... Money Maher & Royal Star both have claims.  So it's the exotics for me with fingers crossed for the right combo!

Here's the field

 

 

 

 

Pounamu! Well picked Macca. I didnt see the vision, but it sounded like Black Heart Bart copped a big check and that was his race.....I think a lot of these are too tired now. Like you said its a long way to go to Perth.

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1 minute ago, Demon77 said:

Should have gone with you Macca....what a run!

 

Just now, Wadda We Sing said:

Pounamu! Well picked Macca. I didnt see the vision, but it sounded like Black Heart Bart copped a big check and that was his race.....I think a lot of these are too tired now. Like you said its a long way to go to Perth.

Missed the tri & first 4 though - typical! To be fair,  I didn't have the 2nd or 3rd in either multiple.  Good dividends though.  

It's last run was the pointer,  all the same.  More than doubled it's prizemoney in one run.  A perfectly timed run from the back ... I felt that it was going to win before the turn.

But not to worry,  I bet small to win big so I'm going to miss a fair bit along the road to the big payout. 

Pounamu is a 6 year old so the horse is worth following.  It's got a really good finish. 

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9 minutes ago, Macca said:

 

Missed the tri & first 4 though - typical! To be fair,  I didn't have the 2nd or 3rd in either multiple.  Good dividends though.  

It's last run was the pointer,  all the same.  More than doubled it's prizemoney in one run.  A perfectly timed run from the back ... I felt that it was going to win before the turn.

But not to worry,  I bet small to win big so I'm going to miss a fair bit along the road to the big payout. 

Pounamu is a 6 year old so the horse is worth following.  It's got a really good finish. 

FF did pay very well. I dont think many people would have had Material Man, i did, then i took it out! Also typical. I had Alchemar Star for third somehow and the Jewel of course. But yes bet small to win big, no real loss there. Onwards and upwards, might go check my small investments in Crypto currency for the 3rd time today.....was a good week for them actually.

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25 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

FF did pay very well. I dont think many people would have had Material Man, i did, then i took it out! Also typical. I had Alchemar Star for third somehow and the Jewel of course. But yes bet small to win big, no real loss there. Onwards and upwards, might go check my small investments in Crypto currency for the 3rd time today.....was a good week for them actually.

I settled on 3 horses in the field that I thought could win so that ruled out any win & place outlays.  It's Somewhat & Great Shot were the other two I liked. 

You're right though Wadda,  same as you were right with your call with regards the Sandown Guineas.  A number of the fancied horses looked tired. 

But I don't give up easy ... I'm already looking ahead to next week at Ascot!  The AJ Scahill Stakes is another WFA race over 1400 where a few horses from the Winterbottom Stakes could well be running.  Might be another roughies race.

The following week there's another WFA race (The CB Cox Stakes - 2100m) finishing up with the Perth Cup (2400m) on New Years day. 

And then we go to the Gold Coast for the Magic Millions!

Edited by Macca
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2 minutes ago, Macca said:

I settled on 3 horses in the field that I though could win so that ruled out any win & place outlays.  It's Somewhat & Great Shot were the other two I liked. 

You're right though Wadda,  same as you were right with your call with regards the Sandown Guineas.  A number of the fancied horses looked tired. 

But I don't give up easy ... I'm already looking ahead to next week at Ascot!  The AJ Scahill Stakes is another WFA race over 1400 where a few horses from the Winterbottom Stakes could well be running.  Might be another roughies race.

The following week there's another WFA race (The CB Cox Stakes - 2100m) finishing up with the Perth Cup (2400m) on New Years day. 

And then we go to the Gold Coast for the Magic Millions!

Yes well pretty close though. Pounamu was certainly a good pick, and you said it would be a blanket finish also. Ok so it goes on and on..no rest for us.......well id be interested to hear your thoughts on the 1400 WFA next week.

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1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yes well pretty close though. Pounamu was certainly a good pick, and you said it would be a blanket finish also. Ok so it goes on and on..no rest for us.......well id be interested to hear your thoughts on the 1400 WFA next week.

Your thoughts & D77's too (and anyone else for that matter) ... it all helps when trying to put a multiple together.  I do it with mates during the Spring & Autumn carnivals (usually via text)

A few of us (sometimes 4 or 5 of us) pick out a horse or 2 in one of the feature races and then we can bundle them up individually if we so wish.  That way you bet with each other rather than against one another.

The field & barriers for the feature races are usually out by Wed or Thurs so you can get an early heads up ... I'll post up a link to the AJ Scahill Stakes midweek if I'm online.

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4 minutes ago, Macca said:

Your thoughts & D77's too (and anyone else for that matter) ... it all helps when trying to put a multiple together.  I do it with mates during the Spring & Autumn carnivals (usually via text)

A few of us (sometimes 4 or 5 of us) pick out a horse or 2 in one of the feature races and then we can bundle them up individually if we so wish.  That way you bet with each other rather than against one another.

The field & barriers for the feature races are usually out by Wed or Thurs so you can get an early heads up ... I'll post up a link to the AJ Scahill Stakes midweek if I'm online.

How do you and your mates pick 1 or 2 horses....? We had some sort of points system going for a while but it was too complicated!! Ok post away, ill be here

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1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

How do you and your mates pick 1 or 2 horses....? We had some sort of points system going for a while but it was too complicated!! Ok post away, ill be here

It's not really an organised thing Wadda ... we just text around about a particular race.  The input varies.  I usually kick things off and then wait for feedback. 

By the end of it,  there's about 4 -8 horses that get mentioned.  The first 4 is my target but some just like trifecta's or even just the quinella/exacta. 

It's way easier online - for instance,  I put Tom Melbourne & Perfect Jewel in my multiples because you & D77 liked the horses.  I had them in beforehand but the input acted as reinforcement.  I don't profess to know a great deal other than often fancying 1 or 2 horses based on form. 

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4 minutes ago, Macca said:

It's not really an organised thing Wadda ... we just text around about a particular race.  The input varies.  I usually kick things off and then wait for feedback. 

By the end of it,  there's about 4 -8 horses that get mentioned.  The first 4 is my target but some just like trifecta's or even just the quinella/exacta. 

It's way easier online - for instance,  I put Tom Melbourne & Perfect Jewel in my multiples because you & D77 liked the horses.  I had them in beforehand but the input acted as reinforcement.  I don't profess to know a great deal other than often fancying 1 or 2 horses based on form. 

Ah i see ok yes thats pretty much how i do things as well. We had some sort of Quaddie system......everyone had their picks and if more than 1 person picked the same horse, then that horse would get 2 or 3 points and so on. Thus we had a range of horses and a range of points......it was pretty funny watching everyone try to figure it out, usually at the track after a few beers with about 3 mins left to get it on after the arguments finished!....Your right, online is way more sensible.. :)

 

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5 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ah i see ok yes thats pretty much how i do things as well. We had some sort of Quaddie system......everyone had their picks and if more than 1 person picked the same horse, then that horse would get 2 or 3 points and so on. Thus we had a range of horses and a range of points......it was pretty funny watching everyone try to figure it out, usually at the track after a few beers with about 3 mins left to get it on after the arguments finished!....Your right, online is way more sensible.. :)

The good bit about the feature races is that they're on late in the day ... so there's all Friday evening & most of Saturday to square things up. 

Some I know like to bet all day (when they do bet) and then others are like me,  they're just interested in the big races. 

I had a small first 4 on the Zephyr race too - no good but again,  no harm done.  Oddly enough,  I nearly got it as I had Amadeus to win as well as our adopted horse.  But you've got to get all 4 in correct order to win :ph34r: 2k was a decent dividend when considering that 3 of the 4 were fancied runners and Amadeus came right in too.

 

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4 Group 1's at Hong Kong tomorrow (ranging from 1200m through to 2400m) ... the event is on the free-to-air racing station as well as racing.com. 

Doubt I'll have a bet (maybe one :ph34r:) but there's a number of the world's best jockeys involved (as well as the top-notch horses)

The Prizemoney is through the roof even after the conversion to AUD.  By my calculations 2 x $3million races and 2 x $4million races. 

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1 hour ago, Macca said:

4 Group 1's at Hong Kong tomorrow (ranging from 1200m through to 2400m) ... the event is on the free-to-air racing station as well as racing.com. 

Doubt I'll have a bet (maybe one :ph34r:) but there's a number of the world's best jockeys involved (as well as the top-notch horses)

The Prizemoney is through the roof even after the conversion to AUD.  By my calculations 2 x $3million races and 2 x $4million races. 

Hong Kong provides some great racing at this time of the year and one of the most memorable and thrilling finishes I have ever seen happened back in December of 2000.

https://youtu.be/RJ3V1Ht9dW0

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    VOTES: Rd 02 vs Hawthorn

    Last week Steven May took the lead in the Demonland Player of the Year Award from Jack Viney. Clayton Oliver & Max Gawn round out the Top 4. Your votes for the win/loss against/to the Hawks. 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 ...READ MORE

    Demonland | March 23

  • Game Day      

    GAMEDAY: Round 02 vs Hawthorn

    It's Game Day and after mixed results in the first two weeks of the season the Demons have the opportunity to capitalise on their good form last week when they take on the Hawks at the MCG today ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 23

  • Training  

    Friday, 22nd March 2024

    Demonland Trackwatcher Kev Martin and I attended the Captain's Run at Gosch's Paddock on this lovely sunny morning to bring you the following observations from the training session ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 22

  • Training  

    Tuesday, 19th March 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers Kev Martin & Walking Civil War attended Tuesday morning's training session at Gosch's Paddock to bring you the following observations ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 19

  • Training  

    Saturday, 16th March 2024

    Demonland Trackwatchers Kev Martin and Dee Zephyr wandered down to Gosch's Paddock on Saturday morning to bring you their observations from the Captain's Run in the lead up to Sunday's Round One match against the Bulldogs ... READ MORE

    Demonland | March 16

  • Farewell  

    Angus Brayshaw Retires

    After 167 games including the drought breaking Premiership Angus Brayshaw has made the heart breaking decision to medically retire from football as a result of a series of serious head knocks over his nearly decade of footy. We wish Gus all the best and he'll always be a hero at Demonland ... READ MORE

    Demonland | February 22

  • Latest Podcast  

    PODCAST: Koltyn Tholstrup Interview

    I interview the Melbourne Football Club’s newest recruit Koltyn Tholstrup to have a chat about his journey from the farm to the Demons, his first few weeks of preseason training, which Dees have impressed him on the track and his aspirations of playing Round 1 ... LISTEN

    Demonland | December 14

  • Latest Podcast  

    PODCAST: Jason Taylor Interview

    I interview the Melbourne Football Club's National Recruitment Manager Jason Taylor to have a chat about our Trade and Draft period, our newest recruits, our recent recruits who have yet to debut as well as those father son prospects on the horizon ... LISTEN

    Demonland | November 27

  • Next Match 

    .

    Round 03

       vs   

    Saturday 30th March 2024
    @ 07:30pm (AO)

  • MFC Forum  

  • Match Previews & Reports  

  • Training Forum  

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  • 2024 Player Sponsorship

  • Topics

  • Injury List  


      PLAYER INJURY LENGTH
    Jake Lever Knee Test
    Clayton Oliver Hand Test
    Oliver Sestan Concussion Test
    Steven May Ribs 1 Week
    Lachie Hunter Calf 1 Week
    Daniel Turner Hip 2-3 Weeks
    Charlie Spargo Achilles 2-4 Weeks
    Shane McAdam Hamstring 3-5 Weeks
    Jake Bowey Shoulder 7 Weeks
    Jake Melksham ACL 12-14 Weeks
    Joel Smith Suspension TBA

  • Player of the Year  


        PLAYER VOTES
    1 Christian Petracca 27
    2 Steven May 25
    3 Max Gawn 21
    4 Jack Viney 20
    5 Bayley Fritsch 19
    6 Clayton Oliver 18
    7 Christian Salem 12
    8 Blake Howes 11
    9 Jack Billings 10
    9 Alex Neal-Bullen 10

        FULL TABLE
  • Demonland Interviews 



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