A Day at the Races

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

O well....that was a basket case of a race!!......run it 10 times youd get 10 different results...should have taken the 32 cash out! I was on I am A Star (Plc)

Cant keep my eyes open. Have to settle for replays....goodnight from Naples!

Edited November 3, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,173]

Got the dream run did Shillelagh and the jockey rode for luck ... not sure that was the plan though.  It looked a case of make-do and hope for the best.  Absolute class mare though,  all the same. 

Our pick (Amphitrite) had no such luck though but you can't win them all.  We've still got Thinkin' Big & Snitty Kitty to come so here's hoping - we're with your pick @Gorgoroth

Edited November 3, 2018 by Macca

[Gorgoroth 12,307]

I was on Shillelagh so happy. Just got reception, out in the country amongst all the fields.

[Gorgoroth 12,307]

Second for stars of Carrum. Spewing I’m missing the races, had planned on watching but alas, other things more important pop up.

[Macca 16,173]

Well,  dreams do come true!  Absolute true story below.

Had my multiple trifecta picked out for the Derby but didn't include Extra Brut as a winner ... until of course when I woke up at 5am this morning after dreaming that Extra Brut had won. 

Obviously decided to then include the horse and hey presto,  winner winner,  chicken dinner.  You little ripper!!!

[Gorgoroth 12,307]

That rules Macca!!!

[Macca 16,173]

39 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

That rules Macca!!!

Best of Days in the Group 1 Mile added to the balance but only because I had a last minute inclusion of Le Romain in a trifecta.  Only the weight beat the horse. 

Triple Deez wins the last in Adelaide ... the omen pick delivers. haha

I'm heading over to Ascot now and then Churchill Downs in morning!

[Macca 16,173]

Racenet Form - Melbourne Cup  3200m  $7.6Million  Group 1

 

1. Best Solution (6)

(IRE)

 

J: Pat Cosgrave

 

 

T: Saeed bin Suroor

 

 

W: 57.5kg

 

Best Odds: $14

 

COMMENT: Caulfield Cup winner who produced a career best to win the race. The Caulfield Cup is the traditional lead up, but in recent years it hasn't been the right form reference. 57.5kg is the ask, but he relaxes, he can sustain a run and is in form so there is enough boxes ticked to respect him.

 

 

 

2. The Cliffsofmoher (9)

(IRE)

 

J: TBC

 

T: Aidan O'Brien

 

 

W: 56.5kg

 

Best Odds: $16

 

COMMENT: I thought Bowman gave him every chance in the Caulfield Cup but wanted to lay in badly when put under pressure. I can't see him turning the tables on Best Solution and is a clear query at 3200m.

 

 

 

3. Magic Circle (17)

(IRE)

 

J: Corey Brown

 

 

T: Ian Williams

 

 

W: 56kg

 

Best Odds: $9.50

 

COMMENT: This horse has clearly turned the corner since joining Ian Williams, winning 2/2 by six lengths each time where he has produced a slashing turn of foot which is needed to win the Melbourne Cup. Has looked sharp in work at Werribee. Stays and has a turn of foot. That's a winning formula for the Melbourne Cup. Looks the horse to beat.

 

 

 

4. Chestnut Coat (4)

(JPN)

 

J: TBC

 

T: Yoshito Yahagi

 

 

W: 55.5kg

 

Best Odds: $41

 

COMMENT: Clear forgive run in the Caulfield Cup. Wide no cover for the trip and was a beaten horse on the turn. Didn't handle the wet track either. The step up in trip and on a bigger track, he can bounce back for sure as long as the rain stays away.

 

 

 

5. Muntahaa (13)

(IRE)

 

J: Jim Crowley

 

 

T: John Gosden

 

 

W: 55.5kg

 

Best Odds: $10

 

COMMENT: He's the horse on everyone's lips. Visually, the Ebor win was outstanding. But what did he beat? There has been 21 subsequent runs from the race for just one win since. That's the negative, plus the form prior was just fair, and that he's a highly strung animal, but if he puts everything together and gets things to suit, he can certainly win.

 

 

 

6. Sound Check (16)

(GER)

 

J: Jordan Childs

 

 

T: Michael Moroney

 

 

W: 55.5kg

 

 

Best Odds: $41

 

COMMENT: He was another forgive in the Caulfield Cup. He was out the back and pulling his head off. Looked drunk around the turn but balanced up and his last 100m was encouraging. Big track, 3200m and a more genuine tempo could see him cause problems.

 

 

 

7. Who Shot Thebarman (18)

(NZ)

 

J: TBC

 

T: Chris Waller

 

 

W: 55.5kg

 

Best Odds: $67

 

COMMENT: A grand old campaigner who will likely sit on speed and make his own luck. Would be a shock to see him win, but his Moonee Valley Cup run was encouraging and I think he's a top 10 contender at big odds.

 

 

 

8. Ace High (22)

 

J: TBC

 

T: David Payne

 

 

W: 55kg

 

Best Odds: $81

 

COMMENT: Put a line through his run in the Caulfield Cup. Leading isn't his go, he wasn't happy on the surface and regular rider Tye Angland wasn't on. He will be much better at Flemington where he won the Derby last year. Two miles will be no issue if ridden with cover and will appreciate any rain that hits the track in lead up to the race. Can bounce back.

 

 

 

9. Marmelo (10)

(GB)

 

J: Hugh Bowman

 

 

T: Hughie Morrison

 

 

W: 55kg

 

Best Odds: $17

 

COMMENT: Horses who fail in a previous attempt at a Cup, generally struggle to improve at subsequent attempts. But this horse has got the ability to win so i am happy to give him another shot. If the race was a few hundred metres shorter he would be the horse to beat so if its a slow tempo he will be very hard to hold out. One of the main contenders.

 

 

 

10. Avilius (11)

(GB)

 

J: Glyn Schofield

 

 

T: James Cummings

 

 

W: 54.5kg

 

 

Best Odds: $13

 

COMMENT: Earned his spot in the field via a narrow win in the Bart Cummings. Well held in the Cox Plate and IMO looks a clear risk at 3200m. He has been a up a fair while as well so it would take a great training effort from James Cummings. If he runs the distance he is right in the race but a risk at the price.

 

 

 

11. Yucatan (23)

(IRE)

 

J: James McDonald

 

 

T: Aidan O’Brien

 

 

W: 54.5kg

 

 

Best Odds: $5.00

 

COMMENT: If he runs up to the Herbert Power effort, he will go very close. But the price is very short and you're being asked to take $4.50 to see if he can run 3200m. There is enough evidence to suggest he may not and at the price, you couldn't back him. But anything similar to that win and he'll look the winner. Just needs to run the trip.

 

 

 

12. Auvray (1)

(FR)

 

J: TBC

 

T: Richard Freedman

 

 

W: 54kg

 

Best Odds: $126

 

COMMENT: Hasn't raced in just under a month and was plain in what looked a weak race. Happy to let him go through to the keeper.

 

 

 

13. Finche (15)

(GB)

 

J: Zac Purton

 

 

T: Chris Waller

 

 

W: 54kg

 

 

Best Odds: $26

 

COMMENT: I think he is 6-12 months away from showing his best. Geelong Cup run was good but I don't think that's the right form for the Melbourne Cup. Not this year anyway.

 

 

 

14. Red Cardinal (5)

(IRE)

 

J: Damien Oliver

 

 

T: Darren Weir

 

 

W: 54kg

 

 

Best Odds: $101

 

COMMENT: Visually, the Moonee Valley Cup run was just plain, but it was a rock hard track and he hates that. Wants a track with give in it and the forecast is for a shower or two. If the rain comes his chances get a massive boost.

 

 

 

15. Vengeur Masque (2)

(IRE)

 

J: TBC

 

T: Michael Moroney

 

 

W: 54kg

 

Best Odds: $71

 

COMMENT: Handy stayer for Michael Moroney but I thought he was just fair in the Caulfield Cup. Would need to produce a career best run do go close and I don't think he has that in him.

 

 

 

16. Ventura Storm (7)

 

J: TBC

 

T: D & B Hayes and T Dabernig

 

 

W: 54kg

 

Best Odds: $31

 

COMMENT: Got his way into form with a Moonee Valley Cup win, but I'm putting that down largely to an absolute peach of a steer from Mark Zahra. He does normally save his best for Flemington though. Can he win? I doubt it, but he should be included in multiples.

 

 

 

17. A Prince Of Arran (20)

(GB)

 

J: Michael Walker

 

 

T: Charlie Fellowes

 

 

W: 53kg

 

 

Best Odds: $17

 

COMMENT: It is always tough to win the Lexus Stakes on a Saturday then back-up to win the Melbourne Cup on the Tuesday but the horses who try always run well. Of the Lexus winners in recent years A Prince Of Arran looks like one who can win the Cup with plenty of improvement in him as well as being a rock hard stayer. Big player

 

 

 

18. NAKEETA (3)

(GB)

 

J: TBC

 

T: Iain Jardine

 

 

W: 53kg

 

 

Best Odds: $126

 

COMMENT: Just snuck into the Field late on Saturday when Red Verdon was ruled out of the race. She was the last one into the race and will likely be the last one home in the race. Pass

 

 

 

19. Sir Charles Road (14)

 

J: TBC

 

T: O’Sullivan and Scott

 

 

W: 53kg

 

 

Best Odds: $126

 

COMMENT: Was game in the Bendigo Cup on Wednesday but that race was won by a near rank outsider. Here to make up the numbers.

 

 

 

20. Zacada (24)

 

J: TBC

 

T: TBC

 

W: 53kg

 

 

Best Odds: $201

 

COMMENT: Had no chance the way the track played in the Geelong Cup but his form prior isn't good enough to win a Melbourne Cup.

 

 

 

21. Runaway (12)

 

J: TBC

 

T: G Waterhouse and A Bott

 

 

W: 52kg

 

 

Best Odds: $41

 

COMMENT: Aided by bias to win the Geelong Cup, but he led all the way and will be out of trouble on speed. Leading all the way in a Melbourne Cup is saved for champions.

 

 

 

22. Youngstar (8)

 

J: Craig Williams

 

 

T: Chris Waller

 

 

W: 51.5kg

 

 

Best Odds: $17

 

COMMENT: Thought she was the best run in the Caulfield Cup. Loved the way she attacked the line off a moderate. Start prior ran similar splits to Winx in the Turnbull. Very confident she'll run the two miles and is clearly in the mix.

 

 

 

23. Cross Counter (19)

(GB)

 

J: Kerrin McEvoy

 

 

T: Charlie Appleby

 

 

W: 51kg

 

 

Best Odds: $10

 

COMMENT: Very progressive gelding for Charlie Appleby. Thought he was very good during the York Carnival when beaten a lip. Has had a setback or two at Werribee but appears over them. Have to respect the stable and their record down under.

 

 

 

 

24. Rostropovich (21)

(IRE)

 

J: TBC

 

T: Aidan O’Brien

 

 

W: 51kg

 

 

Best Odds: $26

 

COMMENT: He was just okay in the Cox Plate. Sat on speed and fought on well. But his form at 2400m is suspect, so has to be a query at 3200m despite being trained by Aidan O'Brien.

 

 

Edited November 3, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

3 hours ago, Macca said:

Best of Days in the Group 1 Mile added to the balance but only because I had a last minute inclusion of Le Romain in a trifecta.  Only the weight beat the horse. 

Triple Deez wins the last in Adelaide ... the omen pick delivers. haha

I'm heading over to Ascot now and then Churchill Downs in morning!

Stunning return to form there Macca. You had a bit of a mid season slump, much like our Illustrious Dees, but you came home with a wet sail to blow us out of the water.

The BB strike rate went up a click and now we turn to the great race on tuesday.

[Macca 16,173]

2 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Stunning return to form there Macca. You had a bit of a mid season slump, much like our Illustrious Dees, but you came home with a wet sail to blow us out of the water.

The BB strike rate went up a click and now we turn to the great race on tuesday.

If I do lose you probably won't hear from me!  I got lucky today with the last minute inclusion of Le Romain and the 'Extra Brut' factor.  But both horses should have always been included if we are wanting to include class & raw ability.  That's for the exotic & quaddie punters of course

The Melbourne Cup guide in the post above has been edited so it reads better. 

Ciao

Edited November 3, 2018 by Macca

[Gorgoroth 12,307]

As a fan of Iron Maiden I do want to put money on Ace High... ha ha

[Dee Zephyr 17,309]

I’m cheering for Magic Circle just to see Marwan Koukash parade around in a G-String like he promised should the horse win. One has to enjoy these colourful characters. 

Seriously tough field. 

[Dee Zephyr 17,309]

Enable became the first Arc winner to salute in the Breeders’ Cup overnight. One serious racehorse, would love to see her race here.

[Macca 16,173]

Fantastic performance by 'Enable' again DZ.  In fact,  all the winners from Churchill Downs were impressive as we witnessed the very best of the best.  The Creme de la Creme.

9 Group 1's were decided in all and they raced for a total of over $30Million.  So we have our time-honoured Derby Day whilst in the States they have a similar day.  On the same day!

I had a few bets,  got a couple of winners and ended up all square! ? I at least got the winner in the Classic which was pleasing.

Here are all the decided races in order ... the links will take you to youtube and the videos are from the Breeders Cup Organisation themselves.

• Fillies & Mares Sprint
• Dirt Mile
• Fillies & Mares Turf
• Breeders Cup Sprint
• Breeders Cup Mile
• Turf Sprint
• Breeders Cup Distaff
• Breeders Cup Turf
• Breeders Cup Classic

Edited November 4, 2018 by Macca

[Macca 16,173]

Australian Group & Listed Races

Best Bet Strike Rate

54: 20 - 6 - 8

And here are the replays of the 4 Group 1's from Derby Day yesterday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Gorgoroth 12,307]

4 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

I’m cheering for Magic Circle just to see Marwan Koukash parade around in a G-String like he promised should the horse win. One has to enjoy these colourful characters. 

Seriously tough field. 

It’s actually one I liked the name of due to my massive nerdness. ?

[Dee Zephyr 17,309]

The TAB comments on the Melbourne Cup runners from today make for interesting reading especially on the part of the fancied runners. It’s fair to say the author is probably still recovering from Derby Day drinks.

1. Best Solution - Market guide only

2. The Cliffsofmoher - Prefer others

3. Magic Circle - Need to improve

4. Chestnut Coat - Prefer others

5. Muntahaa - Not fancied 

6. Sound Check - Have to improve 

7. Who Shot TheBarman- Not good enough 

8. Ace High - Lacks appeal

9. Marmello - Tested here

10. Avilius - Hard task here

11. Yucatan - Place hope only

12. Auvray - Need to improve 

13. Finche - Place hope only 

14. Red Cardinal - Place hopes best

15. Vengeur Masque - Place hopes best

16. Ventura Storm - Hard task here

17. A Prince Of Arran - Cannot recommend

18. Nakeeta - Place best 

19. Sir Charles Road - Outclassed

20. Zacada - Safely held 

21. Runaway - Safely held

22. Youngstar - Prefer the place

23. Cross Counter - Faces tough task

24. Rostropovich - Outclassed

Edited November 4, 2018 by Dee Zephyr

[Gorgoroth 12,307]

47 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

The TAB comments on the Melbourne Cup runners from today make for interesting reading especially on the part of the fancied runners. It’s fair to say the author is probably still recovering from Derby Day drinks.

1. Best Solution - Market guide only

2. The Cliffsofmoher - Prefer others

3. Magic Circle - Need to improve

4. Chestnut Coat - Prefer others

5. Muntahaa - Not fancied 

6. Sound Check - Have to improve 

7. Who Shot TheBarman- Not good enough 

8. Ace High - Lacks appeal

9. Marmello - Tested here

10. Avilius - Hard task here

11. Yucatan - Place hope only

12. Auvray - Need to improve 

13. Finche - Place hope only 

14. Red Cardinal - Place hopes best

15. Vengeur Masque - Place hopes best

16. Ventura Storm - Hard task here

17. A Prince Of Arran - Cannot recommend

18. Nakeeta - Place best 

19. Sir Charles Road - Outclassed

20. Zacada - Safely held 

21. Runaway - Safely held

22. Youngstar - Prefer the place

23. Cross Counter - Faces tough task

24. Rostropovich - Outclassed

Do you feel that this is a very open cup?

[Dee Zephyr 17,309]

14 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Do you feel that this is a very open cup?

In my opinion, yes Gorg. Usually I can find one that stands out to me each year but it’s a struggle this time around. The horse I’ll choose won’t be with much confidence, will probably box a few horses for the exotics and hope for the best. 

I also can’t recall the last time we had a shortish favourite around $5 two days out. I’m a bit surprised at Yucatan’s odds but it did win extremely well last start although the final margin doesn’t really reflect the performance.

Edited November 4, 2018 by Dee Zephyr

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Certainly a hard one this year. Lloyd Williams cant be dismissed.

Call me mad, but im sticking with Ace High. At least the odds are good.

I will have another one i like though, just thinking about the others.....Bowman is on Marmello, ran last year didnt it?

[Dee Zephyr 17,309]

6 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Certainly a hard one this year. Lloyd Williams cant be dismissed.

Call me mad, but im sticking with Ace High. At least the odds are good.

I will have another one i like though, just thinking about the others.....Bowman is on Marmello, ran last year didnt it?

Marmello did run last year Wadda. I was on it then. It wasn’t a very good ride, the jock took the horse to the front too early. Connections said they will ride the horse a bit quieter this year. It ran a cracking race in last year’s Caulfield Cup.

The horse seems to be in good form, can it win? Not so sure but it should be in the mix for a top 4 finish imo.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

8 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Marmello did run last year Wadda. I was on it then. It wasn’t a very good ride, the jock took the horse to the front too early. Connections said they will ride the horse a bit quieter this year. It ran a cracking race in last year’s Caulfield Cup.

The horse seems to be in good form, can it win? Not so sure but it should be in the mix for a top 4 finish imo.

Mmmm.....interesting comment DZ. I do now remember the Caulfield Cup run, it stood out and was all the talk last year before the Cup. Dont think Bowman rode it last year? Didnt Vengeur Masque run well also?

What are peoples other thoughts on Cup Eve? The 3yo...any chance? The above comments almost seem like a Joeboy 3 word analysis!

Also just looking through the race card for the day, its always so bad. When is that gonna change? So many other race days have been vamped up to the max. Darby Day now has many rival days for instance. Its the VRCs day of days and yet we have listed race BM90s or some rubbish. So many people turn to Cup Day that know nothing about racing and want to learn about it and they get served up that rubbish. I find it strange to be honest.

Also i mean i hate to mention the bleeding obvious but... The Shieks horse has won its last 4 races including the Caulfield Cup at 16/1 when the jockey was saying it was a great horse from a great trainer and in any other race in the world no way would it be 16s, but thats ok cause it takes the pressure off me. I mean.....is there something im missing here?

 

Edited November 5, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,173]

51 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Mmmm.....interesting comment DZ. I do now remember the Caulfield Cup run, it stood out and was all the talk last year before the Cup. Dont think Bowman rode it last year? Didnt Vengeur Masque run well also?

What are peoples other thoughts on Cup Eve? The 3yo...any chance? The above comments almost seem like a Joeboy 3 word analysis!

Also just looking through the race card for the day, its always so bad. When is that gonna change? So many other race days have been vamped up to the max. Darby Day now has many rival days for instance. Its the VRCs day of days and yet we have listed race BM90s or some rubbish. So many people turn to Cup Day that know nothing about racing and want to learn about it and they get served up that rubbish. I find it strange to be honest.

Also i mean i hate to mention the bleeding obvious but... The Shieks horse has won its last 4 races including the Caulfield Cup at 16/1 when the jockey was saying it was a great horse from a great trainer and in any other race in the world no way would it be 16s, but thats ok cause it takes the pressure off me. I mean.....is there something im missing here?

I am doing a Box Trifecta and maybe a F4 as I often do with the cup ... but this time around I'm going wider and am happy with the smaller percentage.  The dividends are often extremely good anyway so any sort of collect can be decent. 

The two 3YO's are almost certainly going to be included and not just because of their lightweights ... both are good performers and we all saw what Rekindling did last year.  And it goes without saying that the overseas contingent will probably dominate the finish anyway.

The rest of the card is average compared to what we've been seeing ... however,  races 2,  6,  8,  9  & 10 have a number of familiar names.  Very difficult finding some standout winners Wadda but the value for me then becomes the trifectas.

Full Race Card - Melbourne Cup Day

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

3 hours ago, Macca said:

I am doing a Box Trifecta and maybe a F4 as I often do with the cup ... but this time around I'm going wider and am happy with the smaller percentage.  The dividends are often extremely good anyway so any sort of collect can be decent. 

The two 3YO's are almost certainly going to be included and not just because of their lightweights ... both are good performers and we all saw what Rekindling did last year.  And it goes without saying that the overseas contingent will probably dominate the finish anyway.

The rest of the card is average compared to what we've been seeing ... however,  races 2,  6,  8,  9  & 10 have a number of familiar names.  Very difficult finding some standout winners Wadda but the value for me then becomes the trifectas.

Full Race Card - Melbourne Cup Day

Which was the other 3yo....

If Ace gets up Macca....it will be Dancing in Dubrovnik!

[Macca 16,173]

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Which was the other 3yo....

If Ace gets up Macca....it will be Dancing in Dubrovnik!

Ha ha!

Rostropovich is the other 3YO* ...  I followed the fortunes of the horse during the European summer and the horse was running in SW or WFA Group 1 & Group 2 races to very good effect.  Was running against class WFA distance performers in Latrobe,  Poet's Word,  Crystal Ocean,  Old Persian & Saxon Warrior but because it is a 3YO,  it gets into the Cup at the lightweight. 

Many of the other European Cup entrants have qualified as slightly older horses through the Group 2 & Group 3 Handicaps in Europe.  Up until tomorrow Rostropovich has been carrying 57kgs up to 60kgs in its races - it has 51kgs in the Cup and drops 5kgs from the Cox Plate.

It has been reported that Tom Waterhouse has backed the horse to win $1Million today and I have it definitely included in my exotics.  Currently 27-1 which is overs in my opinion.  It's Cox Plate run might have been a training gallop to get the horse primed ? Trained by Aiden O'Brien the master trainer. 

Cross Counter is the other 3YO and if the horse is healthy,  it can get into the finish as well.  Of the Australian contingent,  Youngstar is the standout. 

But it is a very tough race this year with at least 10-12 realistic chances Wadda. 

*n.b.  Cross Counter & Rostropovich are Northern Hemisphere 3YO's and even though they're listed as 4YO's here,  they are not weighted as they otherwise might be. 

Edited November 5, 2018 by Macca