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A Day at the Races


Toorak

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37 minutes ago, Macca said:

There's too much information to take in Wadda ... that's why this thread is ultra helpful.  We're still in the very early stages - as time goes on the info swapped about will take on more significance.

Anyway,  'Show A Star' salutes so that's the treble (within the 4 pick)  I've doubled my outlay by utilising the saver multi's and I hope you blokes got a collect as well. 

3 from 4 is always going to show a good return so the system held up (at least that's the way I'm approaching it)

Great win by Hartnell in the Orr Stakes too - what a class act that horse is.  A blanket finish though,  all the same.  My pick (Dollar for Dollar) just couldn't get a clear run at them.

Ill be ok as long as the aflw girls get up. They are well ahead at HT so pretty hopeful.

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15 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ill be ok as long as the aflw girls get up. They are well ahead at HT so pretty hopeful.

Speaking of which I've put on a sports multi for tonight/overnight but this time I've used the same way of thinking that we're exploring with the horses. 

Rather than looking for a massive payout like I normally do I've looked for a total dividend in the 25 -1 to 30-1 area with an absolute maximum of 6 legs.  I've also got a saver Trifecta going at Sha Tin later (seeing you're the Caulfield Correspondent am I the Hong Kong Wizard? ha ha) 

I'm thinking up some nicknames for @binman & @Demon77 - The Morphettville Marauder?  The Flemington Forecaster?  

Good luck with the last leg of your multi Wadda. 

Edited by Macca
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I'm not sure that Winx would have been troubled today if she had run in the C F Orr Stakes.  The race time was not overly quick (somewhere in the 1:24's?) but regardless,  the mare would have blitzed them in the straight anyway. 

But this article from Racenet.com sets the scene for Hartnell to take on Winx in the G1 1600m Chipping Norton (March 3rd)

Winx versus Hartnell? Bring it on!

 

Australian Group & Listed Races

 

 

Edited by Macca
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Ok, i have a complaint.

The multi i put on on Wednesday night, 3 legs, paying 81.00 or 8.10/1. Gailo Chop, Show a Star and Melbourne (w).

Multi salutes thanks to the gallant efforts of the Dees girls team. (maybe a start for 1 or 2 come the season beginning). I went to collect my 81.00 and low and behold it paid out 64.00!!

When i went to enquire across the bar at the said Pubtab, the tab representative said i should note the terms and conditions printed on the ticket which state, Refunds and Deductions Apply.

He said if there are scratchings it can change the payout price.

Well ive never heard of this before, and ive had more multis than a harem in ancient Greece!!

Ok well maybe not that many, but still. I beg the question, why bother putting a fixed odds multi on in advance at all if the odds are not fixed, it need to be clearly stated.

Rant over. Not happy.

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13 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ok, i have a complaint.

The multi i put on on Wednesday night, 3 legs, paying 81.00 or 8.10/1. Gailo Chop, Show a Star and Melbourne (w).

Multi salutes thanks to the gallant efforts of the Dees girls team. (maybe a start for 1 or 2 come the season beginning). I went to collect my 81.00 and low and behold it paid out 64.00!!

When i went to enquire across the bar at the said Pubtab, the tab representative said i should note the terms and conditions printed on the ticket which state, Refunds and Deductions Apply.

He said if there are scratchings it can change the payout price.

Well ive never heard of this before, and ive had more multis than a harem in ancient Greece!!

Ok well maybe not that many, but still. I beg the question, why bother putting a fixed odds multi on in advance at all if the odds are not fixed, it need to be clearly stated.

Rant over. Not happy.

That is an ordinary outcome Wadda ... when a horse is scratched from a multi we're left with the same bet minus that leg.  Which often defeats the purpose of having that multi in the first place.  We take our chances on the early odds knowing that can happen.

So the odds shouldn't change just because other horses are scratched - the TAB should wear that.  It's just typical. 

It would have been the 'Show A Star' odds by the looks of it as that race ended up having only a 5 horse field.  Still,  I'm with you ... they've got some nerve short changing the payout on a fixed odds multi. 

Related are the fixed odds themselves ... both last weekend and this weekend the odds on a number of our selections started reducing from Thursday evening onwards. 

I'm going to continue to go early with my best bet for the reasons outlined above - and then hope like hell there aren't any mass scratchings from the race the best bet is applied to!

 

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26 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ok, i have a complaint.

The multi i put on on Wednesday night, 3 legs, paying 81.00 or 8.10/1. Gailo Chop, Show a Star and Melbourne (w).

Multi salutes thanks to the gallant efforts of the Dees girls team. (maybe a start for 1 or 2 come the season beginning). I went to collect my 81.00 and low and behold it paid out 64.00!!

When i went to enquire across the bar at the said Pubtab, the tab representative said i should note the terms and conditions printed on the ticket which state, Refunds and Deductions Apply.

He said if there are scratchings it can change the payout price.

Well ive never heard of this before, and ive had more multis than a harem in ancient Greece!!

Ok well maybe not that many, but still. I beg the question, why bother putting a fixed odds multi on in advance at all if the odds are not fixed, it need to be clearly stated.

Rant over. Not happy.

Lol, I feel your pain Wadda but unfortunately that's the crap we have to put up with.

I stand to be corrected but I'm sure when fixed odds betting first came out there was no disclaimer (Refunds and Deductions Apply) printed on the tickets. They probably figured it was costing them too much.

While we are on a rant, the multi I placed last night at the Valley saw my first two legs scratched at the barrier leaving my 3 leg multi as a single win bet on a $2.80 pop.

Where was my refund? It ended up as a losing bet because the horse in my 3rd leg couldn't run out of sight in the dark. Under the circumstances a refund would have been appropriate. I placed a multi for the bigger odds, not to back a horse at $2.80 with my $5.

Rant over:)

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2 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Lol, I feel your pain Wadda but unfortunately that's the crap we have to put up with.

I stand to be corrected but I'm sure when fixed odds betting first came out there was no disclaimer (Refunds and Deductions Apply) printed on the tickets. They probably figured it was costing them too much.

While we are on a rant, the multi I placed last night at the Valley saw my first two legs scratched at the barrier leaving my 3 leg multi as a single win bet on a $2.80 pop.

Where was my refund? It ended up as a losing bet because the horse in my 3rd leg couldn't run out of sight in the dark. Under the circumstances a refund would have been appropriate. I placed a multi for the bigger odds, not to back a horse at $2.80 with my $5.

Rant over:)

I'm wondering if Sportsbet have the same sort of one-sided rules?  I joined up tonight just to see what they are like.  I've got a few mates that gave up on the TAB long ago ... they've gone to Sportsbet as well as Ladbrokes & William Hill etc. 

Because I only ever bet online I'm no longer rusted on to the TAB and after hearing your story & Wadda's story I'll probably be making the switch sooner rather than later.  I'm constantly being told that the odds are better elsewhere anyway. 

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11 minutes ago, Macca said:

I'm wondering if Sportsbet have the same sort of one-sided rules?  I joined up tonight just to see what they are like.  I've got a few mates that gave up on the TAB long ago ... they've gone to Sportsbet as well as Ladbrokes & William Hill etc. 

Because I only ever bet online I'm no longer rusted on to the TAB and after hearing your story & Wadda's story I'll probably be making the switch sooner rather than later.  I'm constantly being told that the odds are better elsewhere anyway. 

I closed my Tab account over a year ago, I had some issues with them leading up to the closure and at that stage I’d had enough. I only recently opened a Tab account under the wife’s name (with her permission of course) so I could utilise a new members bonus bet, plus their app is user friendly for live betting. I enjoy the soccer multis also and find it quicker on their app to place a live bet.

I haven’t used Sportsbet for a few years but they seem to be as popular as ever. 

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9 hours ago, Macca said:

That is an ordinary outcome Wadda ... when a horse is scratched from a multi we're left with the same bet minus that leg.  Which often defeats the purpose of having that multi in the first place.  We take our chances on the early odds knowing that can happen.

So the odds shouldn't change just because other horses are scratched - the TAB should wear that.  It's just typical. 

It would have been the 'Show A Star' odds by the looks of it as that race ended up having only a 5 horse field.  Still,  I'm with you ... they've got some nerve short changing the payout on a fixed odds multi. 

Related are the fixed odds themselves ... both last weekend and this weekend the odds on a number of our selections started reducing from Thursday evening onwards. 

I'm going to continue to go early with my best bet for the reasons outlined above - and then hope like hell there aren't any mass scratchings from the race the best bet is applied to!

 

Yes well thats also my question, does this apply to normal fixed odds 1 out bet? Or, is does it just apply to multis? Im mean why have a fixed odds bet if its not fixed? Im sure ive had odds come in before and still been paid the original price on multis......or does it just apply to scratchings? Im totally confused.

Let me know how the sportsbet option pans out. How hard and how long it takes to sign up etc. Think im done with the TAB too. Its not the 20 bucks, its the principle.

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9 hours ago, Demon77 said:

Lol, I feel your pain Wadda but unfortunately that's the crap we have to put up with.

I stand to be corrected but I'm sure when fixed odds betting first came out there was no disclaimer (Refunds and Deductions Apply) printed on the tickets. They probably figured it was costing them too much.

While we are on a rant, the multi I placed last night at the Valley saw my first two legs scratched at the barrier leaving my 3 leg multi as a single win bet on a $2.80 pop.

Where was my refund? It ended up as a losing bet because the horse in my 3rd leg couldn't run out of sight in the dark. Under the circumstances a refund would have been appropriate. I placed a multi for the bigger odds, not to back a horse at $2.80 with my $5.

Rant over:)

Yes i think you should be refunded as well.

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16 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yes well thats also my question, does this apply to normal fixed odds 1 out bet?  Or, is does it just apply to multis? Im mean why have a fixed odds bet if its not fixed? Im sure ive had odds come in before and still been paid the original price on multis......or does it just apply to scratchings? Im totally confused.

Let me know how the sportsbet option pans out. How hard and how long it takes to sign up etc. Think im done with the TAB too. Its not the 20 bucks, its the principle.

I believe it only applies to scratchings Wadda.

If you place the single bet early and there are a few scratchings you will lose some of the original price. Say there are no scratchings the day before or in the morning prior to the race but there are one or two late scratchings at the barrier you might find a deduction on your bet if it wins, all depending on the price of those late scratchings.

You won't lose the original price on fixed if your horse is backed off the map and shortens in the market.

I totally agree with the principle, it wasn't the $5 I was worried about with my multi, I wanted to invest in bigger odds not a single bet. It's not my fault two of my selections decided they would join the rodeo whilst at the barriers.

 

Edited by Demon77
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In regards to other online bookies, a lot of them offer better odds and all sorts of incentives to try and lure new punters or customers of other online agencies.

Every bookie except Tab will pay on the horse first past post regardless if that horse loses a protest. If the horse loses a protest they will pay out twice. That's one tool used to get a leg over the Tab.

 

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Good afternoon ... @Wadda We Sing@Demon77

In a parlay bet with the TAB a horses odds would reduce if there were a lot of scratchings as you're getting paid tote odds.  I'm not defending the TAB as I'm in agreement that the fixed odds shouldn't alter once you've laid that bet. 

As far as I can make out the fixed Sportsbet odds offered don't change once you've laid your bet but I could be wrong on that - of course,  all their odds are never tote odds but the fixed odds can vary depending on the time of day or the day in question (just like it does at the TAB)

I joined up at Sportsbet in 5 minutes although the process takes 2 or 3 days to be verified/approved.  Deposits can be bank transfers/cards/paypal and withdrawn money can be deposited in your bank account.  All online of course. 

I'm not a spokesperson for Sportsbet by the way,  other online betting companies could be way better and I may well explore those options as well ... Sportsbet.com

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Just for a bit of future historical purposes I'm going to try and post up the replays of the Group 1 Races (both here & overseas) Those new to the thread can peruse through and watch some replays of some great Group racing whilst the resident posters can scroll back whenever we wish to do so. 

We'll start things off with yesterday's C F Orr Stakes (2018) ...

 

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1 minute ago, Macca said:

Just for a bit of future historical purposes I'm going to try and post up the replays of the Group 1 Races (both here & overseas) Those new to the thread can peruse through and watch some replays of some great Group racing whilst the resident posters can scroll back whenever we wish to do so. 

We'll start things off with yesterday's C F Orr Stakes (2018) ...

 

Hi Macca, some terrific runs in there, Brave Smash, Single Gaze to a name a couple.

All credit to the champ in Hartnell though. Awesome effort, just pure guts to get the nose in front.

I missed out on my multi, I didn't do the 3 out of 4 like you did, just all 4 to win. That's two weeks in a row now, I think I've learned the lesson.

Its been positive though, with 4 of us gathering our thoughts. Egyptian Symbol looked like the winner coming around the turn but found one just too good on the day.

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25 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Hi Macca, some terrific runs in there, Brave Smash, Single Gaze to a name a couple.

All credit to the champ in Hartnell though. Awesome effort, just pure guts to get the nose in front.

I missed out on my multi, I didn't do the 3 out of 4 like you did, just all 4 to win. That's two weeks in a row now, I think I've learned the lesson.

Its been positive though, with 4 of us gathering our thoughts. Egyptian Symbol looked like the winner coming around the turn but found one just too good on the day.

We were close to winning quite a bit of money (or at least I was) ... you've got to take the good with the bad when betting.  Itz Invincible nearly got pipped so those who did the 3 from 4 multi's got a bit lucky (myself included)

Watch for Tosen Stardom to bounce back - the commentator called it last but there were 4 horses behind it on the line in a blanket finish.  Only about 4 lengths covered the entire finish and Tosem Stardom wasn't that far off the winner.

The wide draw and the fact that is was 3 or 4 wide for the entire race made winning the race a very difficult assignment for the horse.  I wasn't on it yesterday but @Wadda We Sing & @binman were both circumspect about its chances anyway.  One to watch and the odds might be attractive for its next run (The Futurity Stakes Feb 24 and/or the Australian Cup March 10?)

Australian Group & Listed Races

 

 

Edited by Macca
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Yes @Demon77

Of our 4 best bets yesterday 3 of the horses were $2 chances and that won't always be the case ... so hedging on the treble within the 4 pick multi could well offer much better odds. 

Yesterday I put a little extra on the 3 leg multi that got up ... it was paying $8 as opposed to the other 3 combinations all paying around about $13.  Thus,  I ended up doubling my total outlay (which also included a bet on the 4 pick multi) 

If for instance our 4 picks next week (if all participate) are showing fixed dividends of say 2.20,  2.70,  3.20 & 3.50 then the trebles would pay as follows ... $19,  $21,  $25 &  $30.   And the pick 4 multi would pay $66. 

The above is just my way of doing things ... I thought we'd possibly get 4 best bets (or more) so that was my contingency plan ... others can do with the picks what they want. 

 

 

Edited by Macca
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19 hours ago, Macca said:

We were close to winning quite a bit of money (or at least I was) ... you've got to take the good with the bad when betting.  Itz Invincible nearly got pipped so those who did the 3 from 4 multi's got a bit lucky (myself included)

Watch for Tosen Stardom to bounce back - the commentator called it last but there were 4 horses behind it on the line in a blanket finish.  Only about 4 lengths covered the entire finish and Tosem Stardom wasn't that far off the winner.

The wide draw and the fact that is was 3 or 4 wide for the entire race made winning the race a very difficult assignment for the horse.  I wasn't on it yesterday but @Wadda We Sing & @binman were both circumspect about its chances anyway.  One to watch and the odds might be attractive for its next run (The Futurity Stakes Feb 24 and/or the Australian Cup March 10?)

Australian Group & Listed Races

 

 

In my form analysis i put a big emphasis on things such as record at the trip, first and second up form, record at the track and record in the relevant conditions . In this my ratings often reflect the Whitway rating in Winning Post as they use similar criteria. 

Tosen Stardom has an average record at 1400 - after Saturday 0 from 5 and also an average  first up record (after Saturday 11–2–2–0), and for that matter not a brilliant Caulfield record (after Saturday 6–1–1–1), which added to my previous comments abut the track favoring leaders (which ironically turned out not to be so correct in the Orr with Hartnell coming late, though haven't watched it yet - was it from far back?) explains why i thought he was way too short. 

By the by the way i do form is also why i often miss horses that good tipsters select as obviously horse sometimes defy their record across those areas listed above.

But no doubt Tosen Stardom can win next up. A terrific horse as is reflected in his ratings. A big change for me in the last few years with doing form is trusting ratings more and now i put a lot of credence in them, particularly in group and listed races (my favourite for ratings is mares set weight races as they often throw up a ratings special). Tosen stardom is at 115 and twice a group 1 winner so it would be folly to not consider him next start. but i suspect he is a big track horse and Fleminbton is his go.

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37 minutes ago, binman said:

In my form analysis i put a big emphasis on things such as record at the trip, first and second up form, record at the track and record in the relevant conditions . In this my ratings often reflect the Whitway rating in Winning Post as they use similar criteria. 

Tosen Stardom has an average record at 1400 - after Saturday 0 from 5 and also an average  first up record (after Saturday 11–2–2–0), and for that matter not a brilliant Caulfield record (after Saturday 6–1–1–1), which added to my previous comments abut the track favoring leaders (which ironically turned out not to be so correct in the Orr with Hartnell coming late, though haven't watched it yet - was it from far back?) explains why i thought he was way too short. 

By the by the way i do form is also why i often miss horses that good tipsters select as obviously horse sometimes defy their record across those areas listed above.

But no doubt Tosen Stardom can win next up. A terrific horse as is reflected in his ratings. A big change for me in the last few years with doing form is trusting ratings more and now i put a lot of credence in them, particularly in group and listed races (my favourite for ratings is mares set weight races as they often throw up a ratings special). Tosen stardom is at 115 and twice a group 1 winner so it would be folly to not consider him next start. but i suspect he is a big track horse and Fleminbton is his go.

The form from the Orr Stakes will be tricky because of the very slow time they ran (1:24.79)

Anything could have won it as it waa a blanket finish and only 3 or 4 lengths covered the entire field

I am big on times & weights specifically for WFA races or Set Weight races so I much prefer racetracks where the races are truly run.  Caulfield is not a favourite binman!

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14 minutes ago, Macca said:

The form from the Orr Stakes will be tricky because of the very slow time they ran (1:24.79)

Anything could have won it as it waa a blanket finish and only 3 or 4 lengths covered the entire field

I am big on times & weights specifically for WFA races or Set Weight races so I much prefer racetracks where the races are truly run.  Caulfield is not a favourite binman!

Only heard it on the radio and really it was not a great call from Matt Hill. he barely called hartnell until the end and  thought  my outsider tip Lord of the Sky was a real chance with 100 to go.and didn't run in the top 4!

Agree blanket finishes are crap for form. Caulfield is not a great racetrack and it leaders bias is reall issue as luck in running invariably plays way too big a role. On the other hand it does suit some horses and track record can be a good guide, which can help select winners. 

Never really considered time but definitely consider weight as ratings and weight go hand in hand. 

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37 minutes ago, binman said:

Only heard it on the radio and really it was not a great call from Matt Hill. he barely called hartnell until the end and  thought  my outsider tip Lord of the Sky was a real chance with 100 to go.and didn't run in the top 4!

Agree blanket finishes are crap for form. Caulfield is not a great racetrack and it leaders bias is reall issue as luck in running invariably plays way too big a role. On the other hand it does suit some horses and track record can be a good guide, which can help select winners. 

Never really considered time but definitely consider weight as ratings and weight go hand in hand. 

A lot of punters don't bother with times but I'm baffled as to why that is ... however I am times specific. 

Caulfield & Moonee Valley times are often very difficult to work out but it's virtually the opposite at Fkemington,  Rosehill,  Randwick,  Sha Tin & Ascot.  Times and weighrs can be compared at those tracks.

And I add a second to a second and and a half off all Morphettville times.  That track is a fast track as far as I'm concerned.

But each to their own . . we all read the form differently and that is a good thing.  Reading the form isn't easy but nor should anyone expect it to be easy.

By the way 1 second equates to 16/17 metres. 

I kg is a length or a length and a half (according to the experts)

Edit: Add a second or a second and a half to Morphettville times (not take off)

Edited by Macca
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12 minutes ago, Macca said:

A lot of punters don't bother with times but I'm baffled as to why that is ... however I am times specific. 

Caulfield & Moonee Valley times are difficult to work out but it's virtually the opposite at Fkemington,  Rosehill,  Randwick,  Sha Tin & Ascot.  Times and weighrs can be compared at those tracks.

And I take a second to a second and and a half off all Morphettville times.  That track is a fast track as far as I'm concerned.

But each to their own . . we all read the form differently and that is a good thing.  Reading the form isn't easy but nor should anyone expect it to be easy.

By the way 1 second equates to 16/17 metres. 

I kg is a length or a length and a half (according to the experts)

 

I guess for me it s coupe of things (why i don't factor in time). Habit is one factor.  The other is that i am yet to be convinced it is a really useful indicator and i tend to think in recent times it is over relied on.  My queries about the usefulness of time as indicator is that that tempo and track bias (and tracks almost always change over a long carnival day) is such a critical part of Australian racing and so few races are truly run. 

To slightly contradict myself, when i am making my final decisions i do take into account the views of tipsters about closing times and will look at a the last few splits for 1000 - to 1600 metre races but more as something small to factor in.

But i get why people like time as a tipping tool and certainly some swear buy it. Which is why sometimes i can't understand why some tipsters pick particular horses ie ones i have rejected because of what i emphasise in my form. 

With weight as guide i tend to say 1kg is 2 lengths as and each rating point is a length. So a horse at 115 will beat a horse at 111 by four lengths at equal weight (assuming all other factors are equal - which of course they never are!). if the horse rating 111 has two kilos less they will dead heat. I know this differs from mots but it is the guide i use. 

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8 minutes ago, binman said:

I guess for me it s coupe of things (why i don't factor in time). Habit is one factor.  The other is that i am yet to be convinced it is a really useful indicator and i tend to think in recent times it is over relied on.  My queries about the usefulness of time as indicator is that that tempo and track bias (and tracks almost always change over a long carnival day) is such a critical part of Australian racing and so few races are truly run. 

To slightly contradict myself, when i am making my final decisions i do take into account the views of tipsters about closing times and will look at a the last few splits for 1000 - to 1600 metre races but more as something small to factor in.

But i get why people like time as a tipping tool and certainly some swear buy it. Which is why sometimes i can't understand why some tipsters pick particular horses ie ones i have rejected because of what i emphasise in my form. 

With weight as guide i tend to say 1kg is 2 lengths as and each rating point is a length. So a horse at 115 will beat a horse at 111 by four lengths at equal weight (assuming all other factors are equal - which of course they never are!). if the horse rating 111 has two kilos less they will dead heat. I know this differs from mots but it is the guide i use. 

I don't expect anyone to necessarily agree with me with regards to measuring times ... but my view on times is extremely complcated taking into account different tracks,  weights,  the tempo of certain races and a heap of other factors.

As I said,  each to their own as there is no absolute way. 

A great example with regards to times is Winx ... the horse runs extremely fast times in its victories (primarily)  And the other horses simply can't keep up. 

But of course there is also the will to win factor and numerous other factors ... 'times' like anything else is just a guide and not the be all and end all.  For some the times matter and for others they don't

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There are times (no pun intended) where I will often disregard the times run by a horse.

e.g.  If a horse has previously run fast times carrying a low weight but is stepping up to Group racing and will thus carry 5 or 6 more kgs.

 

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Listened to the review of the Caulfield races on RSN this morning.

A few points that stood out:

The wind ( often a problem at Caulfield) became an issue as the day progressed.

Gailo Chop set for the Australian Cup and might be hard to toss.

Smart Coupe put in a terrific run after missing the start ( unusual for this horse), the start cost it 3-4 lengths and there's a win in the Carnival for the horse.

Merchant Navy ran the fastest 800m, 600m and 400m of the day and along with Rich Charm could be the big players in the upcoming Newmarket.

The C.F.Orr is hard to assess due to the slow running of the race. 

Lord Of The Sky missed the start and cost the race the expected speed. The horse eventually worked up to the pace and was wider than Tosen Stardom at stages and only tired the last 50m. Keep an eye out in future runs.

Just about every horse other than the winner had a hard luck story. It was stated to assess this race as a barrier trial for some of the first-up horses and look at their next run as first-up.

Single Gaze was two lengths in front of  the field 50m past the post and stated to note it as a black booker. Brave Smash also a terrific run after a first-up flop.

 

Edited by Demon77
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