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spirit of norm smith

Best 22 for Round 1, 2017

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23 minutes ago, stinga said:

I agree wholeheartedly.  If Smith can do what I expect in the pre season games, he will give our forward line that grunt it is calling out for and be CHF in round 1.  He is the most likely person on our rookie list to be upgraded for H.  Weiderman will be a star but still needs time to develop.  All the other selections are as everyone else has picked - it just depends on which 6 you leave out for form and injury reasons. and balance.

I'd be surprised. The Weed is looking good on the track so far and last year did the typical new draftee preseason after missing most of the year. He could make big improvements to his body which carry him in to the year, even if he then needs a fair bit of management after the early rounds. Smith would have to do a fair bit more than Weed in preseason games to get the nod. 

The advantage Smith might have is the match up v the Saints and the game being at Etihad. At the G I'm sure Hogan is our CHF and we'd be looking at Weed to be that 2nd tall marking/contesting option with his own space to work in. At Etihad and especially against the Saints Hogan has been deployed as an inside 50 target and Smith's versatility and tackling pressure might be a better fit with Hogan playing deeper. Etihad is very much a ground for 1 power forward playing 30-70m from goal and the other talls to move around.

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12 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

I'd be surprised. The Weed is looking good on the track so far and last year did the typical new draftee preseason after missing most of the year. He could make big improvements to his body which carry him in to the year, even if he then needs a fair bit of management after the early rounds. Smith would have to do a fair bit more than Weed in preseason games to get the nod. 

The advantage Smith might have is the match up v the Saints and the game being at Etihad. At the G I'm sure Hogan is our CHF and we'd be looking at Weed to be that 2nd tall marking/contesting option with his own space to work in. At Etihad and especially against the Saints Hogan has been deployed as an inside 50 target and Smith's versatility and tackling pressure might be a better fit with Hogan playing deeper. Etihad is very much a ground for 1 power forward playing 30-70m from goal and the other talls to move around.

Isn't it great that we might have some competition for 2 key forwards vying for one spot.  You are right about Smith and Etihad.

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On 11/29/2016 at 8:58 PM, DeeSpencer said:

FB: Hibberd  Oscar Mc   Jetta
HB: Hunt    T Mc     Salem
C:  Stretch   Viney   Lewis
HF: Kent    Hogan   Petracca
FF: Watts  Weideman   Hannan
Foll: Gawn  Tyson  Jones
Int: Harmes  Brayshaw  Vince Melksham

I've left out Clarry which seems very silly, but I just wonder whether he'll be a better player with more time at Casey developing his tank and made to earn his spot. In time he'll be our best midfielder but the way the game is going especially early in the season teams are super fit and it's hard to carry guys who are underdone and don't have a lot of positional flexibility. He can be good forward, but he's even better on ball.

The best way to judge any player is if they make us better.  Bugg doesn't make us better, even though he's adequate and will get some games.

Unquestionably' Oliver makes us better.  His ability to get first dibs around the stoppages and then release to a teammate is incredible.  He needs no more time at Casey.

 

The following is the AFL's current version of our best 22: 

B: Neville Jetta, Tom McDonald, Michael Hibberd
HB: Jayden Hunt, Oscar McDonald, Christian Salem
C: Dom Tyson, Nathan Jones, Billy Stretch
HF: Dean Kent, Sam Weideman, Christian Petracca
F: Jeff Garlett, Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts
R: Max Gawn, Jordan Lewis, Jack Viney
I/C: Jake Melksham, Angus Brayshaw, Clayton Oliver, Bernie Vince

Depth
Midfielders: Alex Neal-Bullen, James Harmes, Jake Spencer, Mitch King, Jack Trengove, Aaron vandenBerg, Pat McKenna, Lachlan Filipovic
Forwards: Liam Hulett, Dion Johnstone, Mitch Hannan, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Cameron Pedersen, Declan Keilty, Joel Smith, Tim Smith, Corey Maynard, Ben Kennedy
Defenders: Sam Frost, Tom Bugg, Josh Wagner, Mitch White, Colin Garland

Harmes, vandenBerg, and Frost would appear the unluckiest (at this stage).

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1 hour ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Is Frost ahead of Oscar if we're only playing the two talls?

Is Oscar really only 82kg as listed on our site? 

I'll guess that he's put on a little and it'll be updated soon.

Anyway even if he's 88kg now (?) I'm still concerned that he'll be too easily brushed aside.  KP backs usually weigh between 93kg & 104kg.

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1 hour ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Is Frost ahead of Oscar if we're only playing the two talls?

They play different roles, but rest assured the coaches love Oscar and he's ahead of Frost in the pecking order.

That's not to say Frost isn't also considered best 22, but it won't be at the expense of Oscar.

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14 hours ago, ProDee said:

The best way to judge any player is if they make us better.  Bugg doesn't make us better, even though he's adequate and will get some games.

Unquestionably' Oliver makes us better.  His ability to get first dibs around the stoppages and then release to a teammate is incredible.  He needs no more time at Casey.

 

After watching him training hard and showing some of his clearance magic in December I've changed my opinion and think Clarry will be right to go round 1. That said, I'm not convinced about your 'makes us better' statement. 

Picking any team in any sport is about finding the balance between the best individuals and the individuals most capable of performing team duties to get the right balance. 

Oliver is a beauty but if he can't play more than 60% game time with only about 50% in the middle then it's hard for him to consistently play well and other parts of the team have to sacrifice game time and generate more outside run to fit him in. Any time at Casey would be to build match fitness and to set a standard required to play AFL. I want him super fit before he plays this year and don't want to see him have the same issues as Brayshaw in year 2.

On the other hand despite his limitations Bugg can play 80+% on a wing given he's our 2nd fittest player and he can get back to help the backline, spread wide and then get forward and kick goals. 

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8 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

After watching him training hard and showing some of his clearance magic in December I've changed my opinion and think Clarry will be right to go round 1. That said, I'm not convinced about your 'makes us better' statement. 

Picking any team in any sport is about finding the balance between the best individuals and the individuals most capable of performing team duties to get the right balance. 

Oliver is a beauty but if he can't play more than 60% game time with only about 50% in the middle then it's hard for him to consistently play well and other parts of the team have to sacrifice game time and generate more outside run to fit him in. Any time at Casey would be to build match fitness and to set a standard required to play AFL. I want him super fit before he plays this year and don't want to see him have the same issues as Brayshaw in year 2.

On the other hand despite his limitations Bugg can play 80+% on a wing given he's our 2nd fittest player and he can get back to help the backline, spread wide and then get forward and kick goals. 

Clearly he has to have the prequisite fitness.  That's a given not worth stating.  No player plays if they don't. 

And to suggest that you're not sure he makes us better is one of the most inane comments I've ever read on any forum.

Edited by ProDee

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THE FENCE BEST 18

B: Neville Jetta, Tom McDonald, Michael Hibberd
HB: Jayden Hunt, Sam Frost, Bernie Vince
C: Dom Tyson, Nathan Jones, Billy Stretch
HF: Dean Kent, Sam Weideman, Christian Petracca
F: Jeff Garlett, Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts
R: Max Gawn, Jordan Lewis, Jack Viney
I/C: Jake Melksham, Angus Bryshaw, Clarrie Choo Choo, Christian Salem

Emerg  Van der Berg, Harmes, Pedo

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4 hours ago, ProDee said:

Clearly he has to have the prequisite fitness.  That's a given not worth stating.  No player plays if they don't. 

And to suggest that you're not sure he makes us better is one of the most inane comments I've ever read on any forum.

Last year he was rested/omitted on a number of occasions to not over tax his body and to get more runners in to the team, he didn't have the prerequisite fitness. I posted a 22 without him in November when he was in the rehab group doing extra running. Since then he's taken it up a notch and will need to keep going until March to make the required fitness gains.

I never said he doesn't make us better. I was arguing with the idea of just picking the 22 players with the most upside compared to picking a 22 based on the team balance needed to win.

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4 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Last year he was rested/omitted on a number of occasions to not over tax his body and to get more runners in to the team, he didn't have the prerequisite fitness. I posted a 22 without him in November when he was in the rehab group doing extra running. Since then he's taken it up a notch and will need to keep going until March to make the required fitness gains.

I never said he doesn't make us better. I was arguing with the idea of just picking the 22 players with the most upside compared to picking a 22 based on the team balance needed to win.

First year players are always underdone (some more than others) when a club is getting games into them.

Even in year two he won't have the fitness of Nathan Jones (obviously), but it goes without saying that he needs to be getting up to a 70% - 75% TOG to be picked.  If he's not then I too would have him at Casey.  But there'd have to be something wrong for that to be the case (injury/attitude).

Anyway, it's a pointless argument.  I assume we actually agree despite the tennis match.

Note: Last year he averaged 67.69% not 60%.

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 In the past picking a "best 22" at this time of year has made many (me included) look foolish mainly because we haven't had a best 22, we've had a best 6 or 8 and the rest haven't been up to it.

This year on known form I reckon we've got 24 players who I would consider "best 22" with some good depth and some development.

My 24 "best 22" are Hogan, Jones, Salem, Watts, Petracca, Lewis, Viney, Brayshaw, Gawn, Tyson, Oliver, Hibberd, Stretch, Kent, Frost, Melksham, van den Berg, Vince, McDonald x 2, Hunt, Garlett, Jetta and Harmes.  Very few if any "best 22's" selected in this thread have anyone else other than Pedersen and Weideman as third tall forwards.  It's just a matter of time before Weideman fills that vacancy but I don't think he's AFL standard on what I've seen.  That doesn't mean he won't get picked.

Bugg, Kennedy, Garland, Trengove and Wagner (and Spencer for Gawn) can all come in and do a job and the balance are all developing and all would be a "chance" of making AFL standard.  Unlike other years these players will have to be playing very well to get a game on merit (other than injury related) and I'm hoping a couple do because it will indicate the addition(s) of good players.

IMO we are not GF contenders this year (although the Dogs have presented an argument to the contrary) and one of the most interesting things will be to see what part of our selection decisions will be given to development rather than best 22.

It's a fascinating year on so many levels.  Pity it's still about 13 weeks away.

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2 minutes ago, ProDee said:

First year players are always underdone (some more than others) when a club is getting games into them.

Even in year two he won't have the fitness of Nathan Jones (obviously), but it goes without saying that he needs to be getting up to a 70% - 75% TOG to be picked.  If he's not then I too would have him at Casey.  But there'd have to be something wrong for that to be the case (injury/attitude).

Anyway, it's a pointless argument.  I assume we actually agree despite the tennis match.

Note: Last year he averaged 67.69% not 60%.

70% of Oliver > 85% Bugg.

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On 30/12/2016 at 6:10 PM, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Is Frost ahead of Oscar if we're only playing the two talls?

As Pro Dee said, two different roles, however, I think Oscar's stunning progression last season means you have to keep putting games into him. If he continues that growth, we're going to have two top-line KP backs with one of the best small defenders in Jetta alongside. Exciting times!

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6 minutes ago, Bobby Clark said:

B:  Jetta  McDonald  Hibberd 

HB: Frost O.McDonald Salem

 

C: Jones  Petracca Lewis

 

HF: Vandenberg Watts Weideman

F:   Garlett    Hogan   Kent

 

Foll: Gawn  Viney  Tyson

 

INT: Oliver Vince Hunt Brayshaw

NEXT Stretch,

 

 

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Jetta     T Mac  Frost

Hibberd  O'Mac  Hunt

Brayshaw  Viney  Stretch

Petracca  Hogan  Kent

Garlett  Weid/Ped* Watts

Gawn Lewis Jones

I) Tyson, Salem, Vince Oliver

E) Harmes, Smith x 2, Melksham, AVB

 

Edited by Roger Mellie
Forgot Brayshaw
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I do enjoy this thread because you get a chance to see how wrong you were when Rd 1 comes around.

As a result here's my latest offering which is before the pre-season and before injuries take their toll.

The only injured player whom I have excluded due to injury is Dom Tyson, who may well be back by Rd 1 depending on his scan results and if so would force a rethink. But such is our midfield depth that losing Tyson actually makes it one less hard decision.

I have also taken into account our opponents St Kilda. As a result I have Frost on a wing - for Riewoldt purposes. I also think that Goodwin will be aware that Hickey was the only ruckman to nullify Gawny last year and given that I doubt Weid will be ready to thrown to the wolves for Rd 1, I've gone with Spencer and his pre-season form deserves consideration - even though many here don't rate him. St Kilda is a physical team and love hard nuts like Weller and their rucks like to jump in early - hence I don't want to see Wattsy with a bad corkie Rd 1. I also think that having Spencer will allow Gawny to impose himself up forward on occasions and cause the odd mismatch with Belinda Carlisle. Clearly like everybody else here thinks, Weid is the long-term answer, although thus far I haven't seen him do much ruck work drills at training - something that must happen down the track.

The two positional changes that I have from 2016 is that I believe Hoges will start at CHF to maximise his fitness value, although he'll obviously play deep forward on occasions in games. I also have Nat Jones at half-back - I really liked his cameos there last year and I reckon he is suck a great tackler that he can impose from there. But he's also a player who can be thrown onto the ball late in close contests to try and inspire.

Please also note that I would have Stretch in my own 22, but I know under Roos they would get a bit obsessed with playing and talking up Petracca, Angus and Oliver (they have amazing potential after all) and Stretch is more one of those reliable players who makes position so well without quite as much flare. Ultimately my guess is that Stretch will play more games than the big three because once he's in, you can see his value as a link player and now that we have toughness, our link players will become even more valued.

B: Jetta O-Mac Hibberd

HB: Hunt T-Mac N.Jones

C: Frost (Roo) Brayshaw Lewis

HF: Vince Hogan Kent

F: Garlett Watts Petracca

Ru: Gawn Oliver Viney

Int: Spencer Harmes Melksham Salem

Emerg from: Stretch Vanders Garland Bugg Weid

 

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A word of advice, you can exclude Stretch from your best 22, but your side won't reflect the team that runs out in round one.

He's rated very highly internally and WILL play round one.

Of course this isn't a predictions thread, so no need to include him if accuracy isn't on your agenda.

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Can someone amongst the cognoscenti suggest to me how Wagner gets back in our best 22 ??? He is a player I think has the qualities to be an excellent foot soldier for us but his chances of a half back role seem limited. 

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13 hours ago, ProDee said:

A word of advice, you can exclude Stretch from your best 22, but your side won't reflect the team that runs out in round one.

He's rated very highly internally and WILL play round one.

Of course this isn't a predictions thread, so no need to include him if accuracy isn't on your agenda.

This is an interesting phenomenon. Stretch is underrated in a big way by a lot of Dees fans, and I wonder if it's to do with the fact he wasn't a high pick and thus hasn't had a lot of attention from either internal or external media. It's a strange one when you see so many talk about our need for "run and carry" or "spread" but then not think to name one of our best exponents of that.

 

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36 minutes ago, pineapple dee said:

Can someone amongst the cognoscenti suggest to me how Wagner gets back in our best 22 ??? He is a player I think has the qualities to be an excellent foot soldier for us but his chances of a half back role seem limited. 

Development.

He's in effect only a second year senior AFL player, who from my recollection hasn't performed a full preseason as yet.  In my view Wagner has weppons - his tackling and kicking are pretty good.  Perhaps if he develops his tank a little more and is able to sneak up the ground more often and provide another goal kicking option?  He may be one which fly's under the radar.

I think in general apart from the obvious automatic selections, with whesre our team is at, picking a best 22 this far out is a bit like throwing darts at a dart board.  So much is dependant on preason development, preseason match form and dare I say it who adapts most to Goodwin's updated game plan.

From all reports Tommy Bugg has had a cracker of a preseason so far and may be amougst those whom get one of the last contestable spots, but I'm also very wary of preseason 'track' form (particularly this far out), although in retrospect it did provide a pretty good lead indicator on big Maxy last year.  Further on Bugg, whilst many here rate him as only an average player, he is a competitive little [censored] and good sides can never have too many of them.  He also has good goal sense.  My only criticism would be he went missing too often at times last season, but perhaps higher fitness level is the answer to that and IMHO, he could a be best 22 option come round 1.

On the other hand it wouldn't surprise me if either or both Milksham and Hibbard are not in the 22 from round 1.

Edited by Rodney (Balls) Grinter

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7 minutes ago, stuie said:

This is an interesting phenomenon. Stretch is underrated in a big way by a lot of Dees fans, and I wonder if it's to do with the fact he wasn't a high pick and thus hasn't had a lot of attention from either internal or external media. It's a strange one when you see so many talk about our need for "run and carry" or "spread" but then not think to name one of our best exponents of that.

 

Not sure I agree Stuie.  My perception is that he IS rated by many on Demonland and certainly by me.  Tough, skilled and poised under pressure - injury and form permitting, he's in my best 22.

Could be one to pay dividends, become a mature, solid best 22 performer, delivering all the aforementioned attributes on a regular, reliable basis.  That's the real next step in the development of the team, to deliver the goods over the whole season, rather than patches.

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1 minute ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Not sure I agree Stuie.  My perception is that he IS rated by many on Demonland and certainly by me.  Tough, skilled and poised under pressure - injury and form permitting, he's in my best 22.

Could be one to pay dividends, become a mature, solid best 22 performer, delivering all the aforementioned attributes on a regular, reliable basis.  That's the real next step in the development of the team, to deliver the goods over the whole season, rather than patches.

Yep, not saying by all Dees fans, just by a lot of Dees fans.

I'd also have him in my best 22 for round 1, particularly given it's at Etihad.

 

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i personally would have a fully fit Vanders or harmes ahead of melksham in my best 22 but because he's the new recruit most seem to see him as ahead of them

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