Jump to content

  • Latest Podcast: Round 09 vs Carlton



Wrecker45

2015 the hottest year on record

Recommended Posts

The effects of total solar irradiance (TSI) and volcanic activity on long-term global temperature variations during solar cycles 19–23 [1954-2008] were studied. It was shown that a large proportion of climate variations can be explained by the mechanism of action of TSI [total solar irradiance] and cosmic rays (CRs) on the state of the lower atmosphere and other meteorological parameters. … Recent studies by Pudovkin and Raspopov, Tinsley, and Swensmark have shown that the Earth’s cloud coverage is strongly influenced by cosmic ray intensity. Conditions in interplanetary space, which can influence GCRs and climate change, have been studied in numerous works. As has been demonstrated by Biktash, the long-term CR count rate and global temperature variations in 20–23 solar cycles [1960s-2000s] are modulated by solar activity and by the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field). A possible geophysical factor which is able to affect the influence of solar activity on the Earth’s climate is volcanism. The effects of volcanism can lead to serious consequences in the atmosphere and the climate.

You can read more here  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2090123217300334

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NASA's famous James Hansen.

We're all doomed, I tell ya.  The oceans are going to boil...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hate to say it Pro, but you really need to get out of the house more.

 

 

Edited by Jara

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DPiixLWUQAUlkAq.jpg

The summer of 1936 was by far the hottest on record in the US, which wrecks the global warming scam - so @NASA and @NOAA have done everything they can to make the heat of 1936 disappear.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's look at a bit of history for our purse-lipped self-loathing Lefties.

Global warming Superstar the late Stephen Schneider wasn't always a global warming advocate, but he was always a political behemoth.

"To capture the public imagination, we have to offer up some scary scenarios, make simplified dramatic statements and little mention of any doubts one might have. Each of us has to decide the right balance between being effective, and being honest." - Leading greenhouse advocate, Dr Stephen Schneider ( in interview for "Discover" magazine, Oct 1989)

Hmmm.  

But let's rewind a little...

Schneider was one of the first in the scientific community to warn of the impending Ice Age with this paper - Schneider S. & Rasool S., "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols - Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate", Science, vol.173, 9 July 1971, p.138-141

Abstract. Effects on the global temperature of large increases in carbon dioxide and aerosol densities in the atmosphere of Earth have been computed. It is found that, although the addition of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does increase the surface temperature, the rate of temperature increase diminishes with increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. For aerosols, however, the net effect of increase in density is to reduce the surface temperature of Earth. Because of the exponential dependence of the backscattering, the rate of temperature decrease is augmented with increasing aerosol content. An increase by only a factor of 4 in global aerosol background concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5 deg.K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease over the whole globe is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age.

And more...

We report here on the first results of a calculation in which separate estimates were made of the effects on global temperature of large increases in the amount of CO2 and dust in the atmosphere. It is found that even an increase by a factor of 8 in the amount of CO2, which is highly unlikely in the next several thousand years, will produce an increase in the surface temperature of less than 2 deg. K.

However, the effect on surface temperature of an increase in the aerosol content of the atmosphere is found to be quite significant. An increase by a factor of 4 in the equilibrium dust concentration in the global atmosphere, which cannot be ruled out as a possibility within the next century, could decrease the mean surface temperature by as much as 3.5 deg. K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease could be sufficient to trigger an ice age!

 

It would be less than 10 years later and the scare was suddenly global warming.  Physics hasn't changed.  Motives have.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll be snorkeling at the outer reef today with a small tour group of marine biologists.

I look forward to asking them about the state of the reef, as well as witnessing our incredible marine life.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, Earl Hood said:

Polar Bears are increasingly becoming the symbol for climate skeptics. Since Al Gore's fictional movie on climate change made Polar Bears some kind of victim their numbers have thrived globally.

it is laughable that the socialist left leaning Fairfax media post a photo of a single Polar Bear as some kind of evidence of climate change. My bet is the Polar Bear has cancer or some other sickness,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/8/2017 at 8:27 AM, ProDee said:

I'll be snorkeling at the outer reef today with a small tour group of marine biologists.

I look forward to asking them about the state of the reef, as well as witnessing our incredible marine life.

I look forward to your bulldust answers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Wrecker45 said:

Polar Bears are increasingly becoming the symbol for climate skeptics. Since Al Gore's fictional movie on climate change made Polar Bears some kind of victim their numbers have thrived globally.

it is laughable that the socialist left leaning Fairfax media post a photo of a single Polar Bear as some kind of evidence of climate change. My bet is the Polar Bear has cancer or some other sickness,

My bet is climate change deniers have some kind of sickness as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, dieter said:

My bet is climate change deniers have some kind of sickness as well.

Agreed. Sick of listening to the sky is falling in crowd.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/8/2017 at 8:27 AM, ProDee said:

I'll be snorkeling at the outer reef today with a small tour group of marine biologists.

I look forward to asking them about the state of the reef, as well as witnessing our incredible marine life.

No doubt if they tell you it's in bad shape you'll scrounge around and find some half-qualified dim-witted pseudo-scientist in the pay of the fossil fuel industry to assure you everything's rosy. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Jara said:

No doubt if they tell you it's in bad shape you'll scrounge around and find some half-qualified dim-witted pseudo-scientist in the pay of the fossil fuel industry to assure you everything's rosy. 

No, he'll quote Pauline who went scubing off Proserpine about four months back and she assured the world all was well with the reef.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Jara said:

No doubt if they tell you it's in bad shape you'll scrounge around and find some half-qualified dim-witted pseudo-scientist in the pay of the fossil fuel industry to assure you everything's rosy. 

 

1 hour ago, dieter said:

No, he'll quote Pauline who went scubing off Proserpine about four months back and she assured the world all was well with the reef.

Or he might find a photographer to take a beautiful picture of the reef in all its colour and glory and then use that in an emotive campaign to claim climate change isn't impacting the reef at all, and then The Age could write a story on it, admitting in the story that the picture doesn't prove anything at all about climate change but hey, what the heck, it's a powerful image so let's run with it anyway.

Because that's what the polar bear story is - propaganda masquerading as news. In days gone by, newspapers like the Age were on guard against PR stunts like this; now, they just print them, conceding in the article itself that it's a con.

Pardon the pun, but the story does not bear out the headline. 

I understand the role that evocative and emotive symbols and imagery plays in getting a message across, highlighting an issue etc, but if it's not grounded in fact, then what's the point?

It just ends up being ammunition for the other side, and gives credence to the whole phenomenon of 'fake news', undermining real stories and the public's trust in reputable media outlets and information.

Edited by Grapeviney
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

exactly grapeviney. i was going to post almost the exactly the same but i didn't feel like being abused today by the usual self-righteous 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, daisycutter said:

exactly grapeviney. i was going to post almost the exactly the same but i didn't feel like being abused today by the usual self-righteous 

Sounds like you need a cuddle...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Grapeviney said:

 

Or he might find a photographer to take a beautiful picture of the reef in all its colour and glory and then use that in an emotive campaign to claim climate change isn't impacting the reef at all, and then The Age could write a story on it, admitting in the story that the picture doesn't prove anything at all about climate change but hey, what the heck, it's a powerful image so let's run with it anyway.

Because that's what the polar bear story is - propaganda masquerading as news. In days gone by, newspapers like the Age were on guard against PR stunts like this; now, they just print them, conceding in the article itself that it's a con.

Pardon the pun, but the story does not bear out the headline. 

I understand the role that evocative and emotive symbols and imagery plays in getting a message across, highlighting an issue etc, but if it's not grounded in fact, then what's the point?

It just ends up being ammunition for the other side, and gives credence to the whole phenomenon of 'fake news', undermining real stories and the public's trust in reputable media outlets and information.

Good point. Go easy on The Age though: it is far less inclined to pass on fake news than the other press which masquerades as a bearer of news.

Unless, of course, you regard Devine, Bolt, Sheridan and Ackerman as soothsayers...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No need to rely upon propaganda to inform your decisions. Just look at the science.

One site I find useful is called Scorcher. Despite the emotive name, it's run by a highly qualified, experienced climate scientist called Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick. Clearly demonstrates how the world is heating up and how this impacts upon marine ecosystems (actually she also lists her email - at Sarahinscience-  if any of you deniers want to give her your thoughts - I'm sure she'd love to hear from old Pro as he flounders around in his glass-bottomed boat)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/10/2017 at 9:02 PM, Earl Hood said:

Predictably, the climate porn addicts, who must believe in tragedy are the ones who take this kind of rubbish hook, line and sinker.

There could be a number of reasons this solitary bear fell ill, including cancer, but what we do know is that a solitary bear does not mean bears are starving.  If bears were starving there'd be a landscape filled with dying bears, and not just one as depicted in the video.  

But this tactic is not new to the Left or those with an agenda.

Twenty reasons not to worry about polar bears, the 2017 update

Posted on November 6, 2017
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To save the alarmists trouble, I'll link criticisms of the author of Twenty reasons not to worry about polar bears (Susan Crockford), which can be found here: http://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/study-finds-climate-denier-blogs-ignore-polar-bear-sea-ice-science

There's a balanced response to that criticism by an impartial author here: http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/terence-corcoran-canadian-finds-polar-bears-are-doing-fine-and-gets-climate-mauled

And there's a very detailed and compelling retraction request by Susan Crockford here: https://polarbearscience.com/2017/12/05/retraction-request-to-bioscience-foia-emails-document-another-harsh-criticism-of-amstrups-2007-polar-bear-model/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Jara said:

No need to rely upon propaganda to inform your decisions. Just look at the science.

One site I find useful is called Scorcher. Despite the emotive name, it's run by a highly qualified, experienced climate scientist called Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick. Clearly demonstrates how the world is heating up and how this impacts upon marine ecosystems (actually she also lists her email - at Sarahinscience-  if any of you deniers want to give her your thoughts - I'm sure she'd love to hear from old Pro as he flounders around in his glass-bottomed boat)

Can you link to what you find useful? I've been to the site and despite trying, I can't find anything demonstrating how the world is heating due to man produced co2.

You really need to highlight which part of this website you endorse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 13 December 2017 at 9:58 PM, Wrecker45 said:

Can you link to what you find useful? I've been to the site and despite trying, I can't find anything demonstrating how the world is heating due to man produced co2.

You really need to highlight which part of this website you endorse.

Hey Wrecker - sorry for slow reply - been on the run - always happy to hear from you

 

What I like about Scorcher is that is run by professional Australian climate scientists (connected to the Uni of NSW) with no vested interests that I can see. I've found them happy to answer questions, a service I've used when doing research for various things I've written. In the Useful Links section at the end there's a selection of references and articles, ranging from the academic to the popular, you can access if you want to. Here's one of latter, from the Skeptical Science website:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2016/apr/13/its-settled-90100-of-climate-experts-agree-on-human-caused-global-warming

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5 New Papers: Climate And Weather Events Become LESS Erratic And Severe During Warming Periods

Significant Decreasing Trend In Severe Weather Since 1961

Abstract

Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

Read more here: https://www.nature.com/articles/srep42310

Most Frequent Climate Instability During Global Cooling/Reduced CO2 Periods

Abstract

Climatic variabilities on millennial and longer time scales with a bipolar seesaw pattern have been documented in paleoclimatic records, but their frequencies, relationships with mean climatic state, and mechanisms remain unclear. Understanding the processes and sensitivities that underlie these changes will underpin better understanding of the climate system and projections of its future change. We investigate the long-term characteristics of climatic variability using a new ice-core record from Dome Fuji, East Antarctica, combined with an existing long record from the Dome C ice core. Antarctic warming events over the past 720,000 years are most frequent when the Antarctic temperature is slightly below average on orbital time scales, equivalent to an intermediate climate during glacial periods, whereas interglacial and fully glaciated climates are unfavourable for a millennial-scale bipolar seesaw. Numerical experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with freshwater hosing in the northern North Atlantic showed that climate becomes most unstable in intermediate glacial conditions associated with large changes in sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the prerequisite for the most frequent climate instability with bipolar seesaw pattern during the late Pleistocene era is associated with reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration via global cooling and sea ice formation in the North Atlantic, in addition to extended Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.

Read more here: http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/2/e1600446.full

Hurricane Activity Is ‘Subdued’ During Warm Periods (1950-2000)

Abstract
Long-term data are needed to properly assess the influence of anthropogenic climate
change on Atlantic hurricane frequency, however hurricane records are inconsistent prior to the
development of modern monitoring techniques. Paleolimnological investigations from coastal
Caribbean lagoons can be used to track changes in Atlantic hurricane activity because coastal
lagoons can become inundated with seawater during hurricane events, which leaves distinct
biological and geochemical signals in their sediments. This study analyzes changes in fossil
diatom assemblages and chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentrations of a ~1,500 year old sediment core
from Grape Tree Pond, a coastal lagoon located in southern Jamaica. The diatom and chl-a
profiles were used to evaluate overall changes in salinity and primary production, as well as to
identify potential periods of enhanced hurricane activity. The results of this research identified
three periods of pronounced hurricane activity around 1350, 1725-1785, and 1900-1925 CE,
which were indicated by mixed-salinity diatom assemblages and distinct changes in chl-a
concentrations. Additionally, two periods of drought occurring during 1650-1725 and ~1785-
1900 were identified by low diatom abundance and decreased chl-a concentrations. These
changes in the diatom assemblage and chl-a concentrations show that climate variability has
increased following the onset of the Little Ice Age (~1450-1850 CE), however it is difficult to
distinguish the impacts of recent anthropogenic climate warming on hurricane activity from
those of natural Atlantic climate regimes, such as ENSO. This study is one of the first to report
on the diatom species found in Jamaica, and demonstrates the potential of using fossil diatoms
from coastal lagoons to track past storm activity.

Read more here: http://qspace.library.queensu.ca/bitstream/handle/1974/15658/ensc_502_Heller.pdf

Surface Warming Weakens Cyclone Activity

Abstract

By using an objective identification and tracking algorithm of the cyclone, the statistics of midlatitude cyclone activity in East Asia during summer for the period 1979–2013 were analyzed. The impact of the midlatitude summer cyclone anomalies in East Asia on the decadal mode of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was investigated and possible mechanisms were proposed. The possible reasons for the anomalous cyclone activity from the perspective of land surface thermal forcing were also explored. Results indicate that the midlatitude summer cyclone activity over East Asia exhibits decadal changes in the period of 1979–2013 and is significantly weakened after early 1990s. Further analysis indicates that there is a close relationship between the midlatitude summer cyclone activity over East Asia and the decadal variation of EASM; when the midlatitude summer cyclone activity over East Asia is strong (weak), EASM tends to be intensified (weakened), and the weak cyclone activity after 1993 generally coincides with the decadal weakening of EASM. Moreover, there is a close linkage between the weakening of cyclonic activity after the early 1990s and the nonuniform surface warming of the Eurasian continent. Significant warming to the west of Mongolia tends to weaken the north–south temperature gradient and the atmospheric baroclinicity to its south and eventually can lead to weakening of the midlatitude cyclone activity over East Asia.

Read more here: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0155.1

Little Ice Age climatic erraticism as an analogue for future enhanced hydroclimatic variability across the American Southwest

Abstract

The American Southwest has experienced a series of severe droughts interspersed with strong wet episodes over the past decades, prompting questions about future climate patterns and potential intensification of weather disruptions under warming conditions. Here we show that interannual hydroclimatic variability in this region has displayed a significant level of non-stationarity over the past millennium. Our tree ring-based analysis of past drought indicates that the Little Ice Age (LIA) experienced high interannual hydroclimatic variability, similar to projections for the 21st century. This is contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), which had reduced variability and therefore may be misleading as an analog for 21st century warming, notwithstanding its warm (and arid) conditions. Given past non-stationarity, and particularly erratic LIA, a ‘warm LIA’ climate scenario for the coming century that combines high precipitation variability (similar to LIA conditions) with warm and dry conditions (similar to MCA conditions) represents a plausible situation that is supported by recent climate simulations. Our comparison of tree ring-based drought analysis and records from the tropical Pacific Ocean suggests that changing variability in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains much of the contrasting variances between the MCA and LIA conditions across the American Southwest. Greater ENSO variability for the 21st century could be induced by a decrease in meridional sea surface temperature gradient caused by increased greenhouse gas concentration, as shown by several recent climate modeling experiments. Overall, these results coupled with the paleo-record suggests that using the erratic LIA conditions as benchmarks for past hydroclimatic variability can be useful for developing future water-resource management and drought and flood hazard mitigation strategies in the Southwest.

Read more here: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0186282

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Social Media



    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×