GAME DAY - Round 20

[Whispering_Jack 27,959]

As dawn brings the first rays of light, it's clear that we're in for one of the better days of a cold, harsh winter. A sunny day with light winds and a top of 17 degrees is expected - no better day to break your hoodoo in a stadium where they usually close the roof

I'm feeling confident, anyway.

[Whispering_Jack 27,959]

The Oracle's post from the Pre Match and Team Discussion thread:-

HISTORY TALKS ... by The Oracle

History says that Melbourne has no chance whatsoever of beating the Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium on Sunday evening.

This is despite the fact that when the two clubs locked horns about 12 weeks ago, the Demons had an emphatic 39 point win.

However, that result came at the end of the Doggies' three game losing streak - their lowest ebb for the year to date - and the landscape has changed dramatically since then. In fact, the Western Bulldogs have rewritten their history in that short space of time.

Today it's unanimous among most pundits that the Dishlickers under Luke Beveridge are the feel good story of the season having recently pushed aside the Tigers from that mantle before sneaking ahead of the Swans to snatch a place in the top four.

There's also the matter of the venue for this meeting. The Westen Bulldogs have a sensational record against Melbourne at Etihad Stadium with eight wins from nine games while the place is a "bogey" ground for the Demons whose only win over the Dogs there was in in round 19, 2007 - a game that marks the historic (or should I say prehistoric?) occasion of their last win at the Docklands.

Since then, Melbourne has been involved in the AFL's biggest venue hoodoo losing 21 games in a row at Etihad. Their last trip there would still be causing them nightmares after conceding a hard fought lead in the last twenty seconds against St. Kilda to go down in embarrassing fashion by 2 points.

What this means is that a Demon win will not only defy history; it will be a major upset and in order to achieve that, it will require a supreme effort from the team leaders and the younger brigade like Jesse Hogan, James Brayshaw and up and comers in Max Gawn and Jack Viney. And even then ...

THE GAME Western Bulldogs v Melbourne at Etihad Stadium Sunday 16 August 2015 at 3.20pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall: Western Bulldogs 74 wins Melbourne 85 wins 1 draw

At Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 8 wins Melbourne 6 wins

Last Five Meetings: Western Bulldogs 3 wins Melbourne 2 wins

The Coaches: Beveridge 0 wins Roos 1 win

MEDIA

TV - Channel 7 Fox Sports 3 @ 3.00pm (live)

Radio - Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING

Western Bulldogs $1.22 to win Melbourne $4.25 to win

LAST TIME THEY MET Melbourne 15.13.103 defeated Western Bulldogs 9.10.64 at the MCG in Round 8, 2015

After a slow start the Demons took control and made a statement to the rest of the football world that they wouldn't be pushed around any more. They led at every change to win by 39 points with key positions Jesse Hogan and Cam Pedersen kicking three goals each.

TEAMS

WESTERN BULLDOGS

B: Dale Morris, Michael Talia, Matthew Boyd

HB: Robert Murphy, Joel Hamling, Easton Wood

C: Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Shane Biggs

HF: Luke Dahlhaus, Tory Dickson, Stewart Crameri

F: Lachie Hunter, Jack Redpath, Jake Stringer

FOLL: Tom Campbell, Mitch Wallis, Liam Picken

I/C: Caleb Daniel, Sam Darley, Jarrad Grant, Lin Jong

EMG: Tom Boyd, Daniel Pearce, Josh Prudden

IN: Robert Murphy

OUT: Bailey Dale (omitted)

MELBOURNE

B: Colin Garland, Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta

HB: Daniel Cross, Tom McDonald, Jeremy Howe

C: Jack Grimes, Angus Brayshaw, Heritier Lumumba

HF: Matt Jones, Chris Dawes, Bernie Vince

F: Jeff Garlett, Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts

Foll: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

I/C: Rohan Bail, James Harmes, Viv Michie, Alex Neal-Bullen, Christian Salem

EMG: Mark Jamar, Aidan Riley, Billy Stretch

IN: Rohan Bail

OUT: Dom Tyson (hamstring)

One of these sides is fighting for a top four spot while the other is firmly entrenched in the bottom six but their immediate fate and the outcome of this game might well be determined by a couple of key forwards who have taken their time to establish places in their respective teams and have had very different pathways into the AFL.

Melbourne's Jesse Hogan was drafted by the Demons as a 17 year old from Western Australia in October 2012 when he was taken as a pre-listed selection in the AFL's mini draft. We had a glimpse of him in the 2013 NAB Cup but he could not play AFL for Melbourne in his first season and he spent the year playing with the Casey Scorpions where he won that club's best and fairest and kicked 39 goals in 15 games. A knee injury late against Bendigo late in the year put a premature end to his season (he missed the VFL finals) but worse was to come when he injured his back in a 2014 pre season game which ruled him out for all but one game with the Casey Scorpions.

He finally made his AFL debut in this year's season opener on 4 April 2015 against the Gold Coast kicking two goals and taking seven marks. His goal tally is now up to 36; he leads the competition in contested marks and is favourite for the AFL Rising Star. He already has a bag of five goals against St. Kilda at Etihad and last week, he booted four goals and was his team's best in their defeat at the hands of North Melbourne.

The Bulldogs' Jack Redpath (194cm, 104kg) from Kyneton was selected with pick 62 in the 2012 Rookie Draft. The tall forward was already 21 years of age when drafted and like Hogan made his preseason debut in the first round of the 2013 NAB Cup. However, he spent two seasons in the VFL with Williamstown and then most of last year with Footscray before making his AFL debut in Round 16 of 2014.

He was the Bulldogs' leading goal kicker in their VFL premiership team and is now beginning to establish himself at full forward ahead of high priced young recruit Tom Boyd from the Giants. His career games total is 10 and he has kicked a modest total of 12 goals but against Port Adelaide last week he kicked four goals.

Although not directly opposed to each other, if one of these power forwards can fire and boot a bag of goals, his team's winning chances will soar.

The same can be said of the ruck duels. The Demon midfield is improving steadily and the Doggies on ball division has also come on in leaps and bounds under the tutelage of coach Luke Beveridge. The ruck is where I expect Melbourne to press home the advantage of an in form 208cm Max Gawn who is one of the top four ruckmen in the competition in terms of hit outs and contested marks and who was an emergency when these teams last met.

Newly re-signed on a three year contract, Gawn has been a revelation since he broke into the side in mid season after a heartbreaking run with injuries. He keeps getting better and if he's on song this week against the Western Bulldogs, we could see Melbourne rewrite some more of its history and break yet another hoodoo in 2015.

[What 18,810]

We have some good players out but still match up well with them on paper

M Jones and Bail will need to do some big tagging jobs. With the mids we have out we need to free up Viney and Vince to play more attacking roles

I know they are 12-6 but I still dont rate the Dogs, we flogged them 12 weeks ago and they have had a soft draw

[Pipefitter 2,014]

Ahh Etihad. A place where dreams are crushed and wallets are emptied.

[DemonOX 8,529]

Let's just hope the TEAM plays four quarters of footy cause if they don't we have no chance.

I know he's not a fav here but congrats to MJ on 50 games. Let's hope he and the rest of the team have a good one.

[What 18,810]

I know he's not a fav here but congrats to MJ on 50 games. Let's hope he and the rest of the team have a good one.

He shut down Robert Murphy earlier in the year, he will be an important player for us today

[DemonOX 8,529]

He shut down Robert Murphy earlier in the year, he will be an important player for us today

And conveniently RM is back for today's game. Hopefully it's a good omen.

[Pates 9,536]

I've tipped the doggies but unlike other years I'm not going into games like this with a doom and gloom attitude. When we get our run going we can match it with most sides, hopefully it won't take a quarter for us to wake up unlike last week. Losing Tyson and then Salem does reduce the class/smarts in the team, but hopefully Bail will see this as an opportunity and take it by the horns.

Would love Jesse to kick another bag against the Dogs!

[Good Times Grimes 2,396]

MJ is a decent role player. I'm often frustrated seeing him in the side as I'd prefer someone more versatile/ skillful (such as Salem or Tyson), but he usually plays his role well, and he always puts in a decent effort. He can be a good defensive forward and has the pace to snag a couple while playing that role. He was very good against the Cats and Dogs earlier this year.

Well done to him on 50 games, and hopefully he has a good one today.

[Bitter but optimistic 21,232]

MJ is a decent role player. I'm often frustrated seeing him in the side as I'd prefer someone more versatile/ skillful (such as Salem or Tyson), but he usually plays his role well, and he always puts in a decent effort. He can be a good defensive forward and has the pace to snag a couple while playing that role. He was very good against the Cats and Dogs earlier this year.

Well done to him on 50 games, and hopefully he has a good one today.

He also played a decent game against North last week. Some continued good form from him would be very helpful today.

[Moneider96 1,045]

This will go exactly like the Geelong game. Can't wait to be proven right.

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,874]

Who's out of the side that hasn't been out for weeks as it is?

Very winnable game although we're still carrying players who can't dispose of the footy.

I keep hearing about Stringer and Redpath, what about our fwds.

No excuses at all today.

[titan_uranus 22,279]

Who's out of the side that hasn't been out for weeks as it is?

Well, Tyson.

The main issue with Bail replacing Tyson is that we lose a clearance player and don't get one back in. Tyson's work in the clearances last week against North was important for us, but then again we were operating with Vince and N Jones at reduced outputs, so if those two fire up hopefully it'll even out.

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,874]

Yes but it's not like we have 4-5 players out. While Tyson had a great game last week he's been down on last years form. Part of development or coming of age requires us to not miss a beat with players out. We beat the cats without Hogan. But I will acknowledge we have no depth. We run out today with players who still can't do the games basics.

[barneymfc 152]

already back us to win by 60& @101 feeling so good about today going to double up

[Redleg 37,551]

Yes but it's not like we have 4-5 players out.

Frost, Salem, Kent, Tyson, Pederson, Petracca, JT. That is 7. Yes I know Petracca hasn't played, but he is supposed to be a very good player.

[Jaded No More 57,769]

Feeling like my plan to have post match margaritas with friends is going to be a useful way to drown my sorrows.

We are no chance sadly.

[xarronn 380]

Frost, Salem, Kent, Tyson, Pederson, Petracca, JT. That is 7. Yes I know Petracca hasn't played, but he is supposed to be a very good player.

The question was "who's out of our side who hasn't been out for weeks?" Of those you've named only Tyson fits that category.

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,874]

Frost, Salem, Kent, Tyson, Pederson, Petracca, JT. That is 7. Yes I know Petracca hasn't played, but he is supposed to be a very good player.

Redleg I was referring to who's out that's been there the last couple of weeks. Games v North/Pies etc. team stability should be good.

[dazzledavey36 48,703]

Doggies by 25

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,874]

Frost, Salem, Kent, Tyson, Pederson, Petracca, JT. That is 7. Yes I know Petracca hasn't played, but he is supposed to be a very good player.

JT? Anything from him is a bonus. I'm not getting my hopes up. I've moved on rightly or wrongly from a few on on the list.

[WhyAlwaysMe 237]

Ahh Etihad. A place where dreams are crushed and wallets are emptied.

under Roos we have played well at Edihad.

we are 0 from 5 but our average losing margin is 15points

biggest losing margin is 30 against a Prelimanary finalist

2 losses by under a goal

& the other 2 loses we kicked ourselves out of it with a identical score of 6-15.

our game style is actually better suited to the ground dimensions than the G.

the line betting of 29.5 is an absolute gimme, simply walk away with as much as you can carry.

the $4.80 to win is generous & insulting, if this game was at the G we would be around $2.80.

[McQueen 17,862]

A Demon win would put an end to the frothing from the media about the Bulldogs high octane footy.

I think it'll be a tight game.

Dee's by 9 points.

[Pates 9,536]

A Demon win would put an end to the frothing from the media about the Bulldogs high octane footy.

I think it'll be a tight game.

Dee's by 9 points.

We owe them for the one we coughed up at Etihad last year, would love it to be a close win to the Dees!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

So is Salem playing??.......seems to be 5 on the bench atm.