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  1. Lampers

    Must address in pre-season

    I think Tim Smith and Cam Pedersen are pretty similar at AFL level - Smith more capable when the ball is on the ground and Pedersen a much better kick. At AFL level they are utility tall backups so not much point having two of them as only one is likely to get a game when first choice players are unavailable. I don’t reckon either is a list clogger by themself, but there’s only room for one of those types therefore having two does clog a spot. I understand Pedersen is happy to go around another year if offered a contract, and happy to retire if not offered a contract. My guess based on that rumour is Tim Smith stays and Pedersen retires. The list is in an odd spot where there isn’t really a “clogging” problem because Vince and Balic are gone, King looks a certainty to go and McKenna and Johnstone must be on thin ice too. That’s five easy delists before you even get to considering the status of Bugg, JKH and one of T.Smith or Pedo. I’m not sure ~8 primary list changes is on the cards as you need to find 8 more promising players to replace them which is tough.
  2. Lampers

    Dion Johnstone

    This makes sense. No risk of another team picking him up. Two years of development invested and groomed to play the specialist small defender role where you can’t afford to just rest a midfielder. Nev Jetta only has a few years left.
  3. Lampers

    The Braydon Preuss Thread

    It starts getting pretty convoluted if moving on a promising and developing key defender is the catalyst for securing a ruck from another club. Perhaps it’s just Preuss has told his manager he likes Melbourne as he can see the potential for success so that’s triggered discussions, but the realities or practicalities haven’t really played a part yet.
  4. Lampers

    The Braydon Preuss Thread

    The only way this makes sense to me is if the plan is for Hogan to move to midfield or even the backline because Preuss can only play ruck or deep forward. That way Gawn and Preuss could swap ruck and forward with each other, plus there is some contingency if Gawn gets injured. I can’t understand why Preuss wouldn’t go to somewhere like the Bulldogs, St.Kilda or Adelaide where he would have a clear run at being #1 ruckman.
  5. Lampers

    Jimmy Toumpas

    I think it’s fair to say all of Spargo (on the ground), Fritsch and Hannan (in the air) show courage that belies their slight or small statures. i think it’s clear Melbourne have valued courage as an attitude over flash in their selections once Roos and Taylor arrived. It’s not all about physical size. Ironically one or two less “courageous” but skilled types like Isaac Smith or Brad Hill could be accommodated and be quite useful about now.
  6. Lampers

    Changes vs Western Bulldogs

    TLDR ANB consistently does what’s asked of him, so her plays. I don’t find ANB’s continued selection a mystery at all. Goodwin emphasises the importance of good habits over and over and over and over. ANB embodies those habits. Surprise demotions when the basic stats sheet looks OK are habits based. Until there are enough players who can be as good, or near to ANB on those habits, and are better where ANB is weak, he will continue to get selected. What this shows is faith in the chosen strategy by the selection panel. This is a great thing* because it provides absolute clarity to every player on the list as to what they need to do so they are in consideration. Chopping and changing week to week or defaulting to raw talent over sticking to the game plan is a culture killer unless your list talent level is really high. Collingwood in Malthouse’s final years had rules for talent and rules for others and it worked because of the volume of talent. Buckley wanted to move to a discipline and habits based philosophy as that’s more sustainable when the talent volume isn’t there - as is inevitable. It hurt Buckley and Collingwood for years when the talent retired or was cut, and almost cost him his job, but the worm seems to have turned now. * assuming the strategy is the correct one!
  7. It’s a bit like basketball. Shooting from the key gives high scoring percentage 1 on 1, but if all a team does is go there with no outside shooting threats it’s really easy to defend because you just block up the key so it’s never 1on 1. It’s not until the opposition take and make some outside shots that you bother to defend them -which opens up the key for them to take easier high percentage close shots again. This is absolutely a classic coaching game plan problem to solve.
  8. Lampers

    Dom Tyson

    I think the main driver with The Watts trade was also his lack of reliability in contests, but I think salary cap relief was another element i.e. the big chunk he was taking up made tolerating his onfield weaknesses even less palatable.
  9. Lampers

    Melbourne Father sons

    On a related note, Nathan Brown (Demon #25 variety) has at least a couple of sons playing at the same footy club as my daughter. Early teens and pre-teen but both winning/placing in the B&Fs. I've not seen either play.
  10. Lampers

    Dom Tyson

    I'm mildly surprised Dom wasn't offloaded in last year's trade period as all the signs were there of value for all potential parties. I see him as a solid 6-7/10 across many facets you require in a midfielder. Melbourne are now looking to become and maintain at next level contender, so need more 8-9/10 in key areas even if those guys are 3-4/10 in different areas - in other words, role players to surround the true stars. Think Hannan, Harmes, Fritsch. Carlton desperately need experience and reliability to surround their developing youth talent - they are where Melbourne were when Tyson arrived. In other words, Tyson is genuine depth at Melbourne, he doesn't fit lock best 22 anymore which is more a function of the team developing than Tyson going significantly backwards. Trading is all about value, so look at it from Melbourne and Carlton's perspectives as well as Tyson's across other aspects. Carlton don't need heaps of 18-20 year old talents and will continue to get enough talented juniors through their likely finishing positions. Melbourne want to keep the pipeline of quality juniors coming in with an eye to the future, however are hamstrung having traded away first rounders for Lever plus likely finishing positions limiting draft picks. Melbourne value draft picks around the late teen or early 20s far more than Carlton do. Carlton don't (shouldn't) have salary cap concerns. Melbourne do, especially if they want Gaff (see the Watts deal last year for an example of salary cap free up being part of the deal). If Tyson is on 400-450k, that freed room is value to Melbourne, more so if Gaff is a possibility. A left field one. Do Carlton (or Essendon or St.Kilda) have a ~27-28 year old player that would be a great fit for Melbourne for 2019 and the next few years? I can't immediately think of one, but that could be value to Melbourne more than that player is value to Carlton or the other struggler clubs. Think a replacement for Vince/Lewis or a solid small defender in case Jetta goes down. If Kade Simpson was a bit younger. Or potentially shake a wayward talent like Billings out of the Saints. Finally what is Tyson's attitude? He has shown he is not afraid to do what he wants to further his agenda. He agreed to the trade from GWS to Melbourne. He was very vocal about the training camp in late 2016 where he got injured. He appears to have high confidence on the field. Does his ego allow him to be depth and maybe get finals (and dare I say it, premiership opportunity) but reliant on form and injury of others - while taking a lesser salary than he could command elsewhere? Or is he happy to go to Carlton, get a $150k per year bump and a guaranteed AFL best 22 spot? Who knows what value is for Tyson the individual aside from him and probably Melbourne? He is contracted to Melbourne until the end of 2019 so there is advantage to the Demons there for this upcoming trade period, but that lessens for 2019 trade period. I believe this will hinge on whether Melbourne will get Gaff in which case Tyson will be shopped hard, and if Gaff is not on it will be down to Tyson's perspective and attitude. Too many planets are aligning for nothing to happen here.
  11. Lampers

    Jason Taylor Resume

    Adelaide’s “natural” third round selection is 36 + (19 - their finishing position after finals). So if they finish 10th it’s 36 + (19 - 10) = 45 Finish 3rd it's 36 + (19 - 3) = 52 Natural = before father/son or academy bidding, ofree agent compensation or priority’s selections.
  12. Lampers

    Changes v North Melbourne

    Frost in is a must for Ben Brown, maybe Kielty as a left field bolter. Wagner is the obvious casualty however the coaching staff clearly see something in him. Lewis (and Vince) are not contributing what their role is meant to be - which is consistently great decisions and rarely make mistakes which compensates for lack of atheleticism. As the season progresses I think only one will be in the team but too early to drop one. I’d drop Lewis if I had my way and bring in Frost and toy with Bugg out for whoever is in form - maybe Kent for the foot speed and ability to hit the scoreboard. What I would say for Bugg is he does run hard forward. He was often alone in the goal square as a goal sailed through but Harmes when pushing forward does the same and is more versatile than Bugg.
  13. Lampers

    Andrew Gaff

    In US sports is basically the club own the players and can do what they want to better the club's prospects - until the player qualifies and the tables turn. We are seeing quasi free agency if you are good enough (see Lever who got his cash and club of choice) as well as true free agency. Clubs are getting their list building strategies compromised by this. Because it is accepted in the US, the players expect to potentially move at the drop of a hat until they qualify for free agency. Do we support the club, or the (well compensated) players who can always quit and get a regular job if they really hate the prospect of being traded. I would prefer genuine power to the clubs so they can execute their strategies with confidence.
  14. Lampers

    Mahoney, get away

    Have we considered the club have made the strategic move to back player development and club culture over the "pick them with early picks and success will follow" approach of previous regimes? If you take the view you only need (and can afford to keep) X number of high end talents, then you trade speculative picks for known high end talent. And you back yourself in to develop the role players to surround them with late picks. Butler and Castagna are very "meh" players, but they played their role with discipline and have a premiership. In addition the lure of success and good culture may snag another couple of top talents via free agency to top up. i have no idea if that's what their strategy is, or if it would pay off.
  15. Lampers

    Farewell Jack Watts

    I'd be confident it's not just a "Will whatever the club gets for Watts make the team better?" in isolation decision. It's safe to assume Watts must be in ball park 500-600k. The salary cap relief his exit would bring, and subsequent opportunity to recruit or secure existing players, would be a massive factor. I keep drawing parallels to the corporate world, but if you get a big pay rise, the scrutiny and expectation rise with it. You can't be happy to take the cash, then be surprised when people more harshly asses the value for money you represent and wonder if they can get more benefit for the same outlay through other means. Footy clubs are different to a corporate environment in many ways of course, but there are cold business decisions to be made on salary cap and list management to balance with the culture and unity impacts. There's never a formula to get to the the right answer with the balance, it's a lot of gut feel.