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Lucifer's Hero

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Lucifer's Hero last won the day on June 14

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About Lucifer's Hero

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    Red and Blue

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    Female
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    Bayside
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    MFC, Bridge, Travel, Good food and wine

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    Salem,Barassi,Stynes,Watts

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  1. Lucifer's Hero

    Round 22 Non MFC Games

    To maximise our chances to stay in the 8 we need these results: Rich to defeat Ess. Pies to defeat Port. Freo to defeat Cats Crows to defeat North That will knock Ess, North and Cats out as our competitors as they will be one game and big % behind us guaranteeing us a spot in the 8, regardless of whether we win another game! So time to barrack for the underdogs, folks!
  2. Lucifer's Hero

    Wallace Calls Out Goody

    Someone should tell Wallace that 'fugazi' has nothing to do with 'fake news'. Long bow drawn by him. I didn't like Wallace's tone and attitude - quite aggro and unnecessary. But, it was only a matter of time before someone in the media started pointing the finger at the coach rather than the players or the inanimate game plan. I guess Simon's honeymoon period is coming to an end and the media will turn up the heat on him if we don't perform. Its one thing for us loyal demon fans to vent about him and coaches on here. But it is another thing when some hack commentator does it. The media can turn nasty quite quickly so hopefully we pull a rabbit out of the hat in the next few weeks and win a game or two.
  3. Lucifer's Hero

    Missed opportunities on these numbers!

    It means the twitter person 'Sgt Pepper.....' (aka the 'data scientist') doesn't know what he is talking about or is being a smart alec to impress his followers. That aside, 'Unleash Hells' point that we are a relatively inexperienced side with a bit of growing to do is valid.
  4. Lucifer's Hero

    Run home to Finals - 2018

    This article caught my eye: https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/cotchin-astbury-set-to-miss-bombers-clash-20180816-p4zxt1.html Cotchin, Astbury and Prestia rested. Butler and Lambert had ankle surgery and expected to be available for first final. The pre-finals bye hasn't stopped teams resting players (just as Adelaide did in rnd 23 last year). I guess that is the luxury of having top spot sewn up. Bombers will like their chances of a win vs Rich this week. If they win it will be a real show down with Port in their rnd 23 game. It is imperative we win a game and hopefully vs WCE this week.
  5. Lucifer's Hero

    Missed opportunities on these numbers!

    Sorry to be pedantic but is that a table of the 'Average' or the 'Median'? They can paint quite a different picture as the Average is easily skewed. (I don't think it is statistically possible to have an average median, is it...?) I'm not suggesting we are not relatively young and have a lot of growing to do - would just like to understand what that table refers to. Cheers.
  6. Lucifer's Hero

    Go and get Gaff!

    A guy called Brad Hardie reckons Gaff is a good chance to go to Ess: "Right now the Bombers might be the most intriguing of them. (North. Ess. Melb). My information is that Gaff met with them twice last week and John Worsfold is the bloke who gave him his start in the league." https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/west-coast-eagles/brad-hardie-andrew-gaff-in-crosshairs-for-wooshas-bombers-ng-b88927628z Does this Hardie guy have reasonable credibility? If we don't get Gaff I hope we have someone else in the pipeline as our loses show we desperately need someone who is a very good kick.
  7. Lucifer's Hero

    Missed opportunities on these numbers!

    That hasn't been our strength against the 'smart' teams this year. For example, #hitouts and #clearances in isolation show we dominate (most of the time). But to measure the team's effectiveness from ruck contests the ratio of clearances/hitout gives a clearer picture. Against the teams that have convincingly beaten us this year (and happen to be the only ones above us on the ladder) this is what that measure shows: Total Team Clearances to Total Own Ruck Hitouts: A very consistent pattern emerges. It is saying the 'smart' teams don't worry about winning the hitouts but rove to Max better than us, so neutralise our greatest asset. The Coll ratio is closer because they had Grundy to neutralise Max nonetheless they still roved to Max better than us. The difficulty with raw stats is it is just data until it is used in a meaningful measure of effectiveness. Champion Data (and the media) rarely do that. So conclusions are often drawn on 'Total' this or 'Total' that which can be skewed by a handful of good games. So I would say we have taken our opportunities against the bottom half of the ladder where the stats in the op are most pronounced.
  8. Lucifer's Hero

    POST MATCH DISCUSSION - Round 21

    I didn't say our game plan doesn't work. To the contrary it works very well against lesser sides and those not smart enough to exploit our weaknesses. Our very good statistics have been achieved against those sides. My post was intended to show how when we are convincingly beaten (Hawks, Tigers, Pies, Swans) there is a very consistent pattern which our game plan has not been able to counter (and which raw statistics don't really show). The Swans did what the Hawks did so I'm not sure what we learnt/changed in those 3 months. I feel we need more than a few 'fixes' and 'tweaks' (in the post I first responded to). We need a plan for when teams don't let us play on our terms, ie Hawks, Tigers, Pies, Swans. So I think our game plan works very well when we are allowed to use it... BTW, I didn't include Port and Geelong in my analysis because they did let us play on our own terms, so our game plan wasn't really challenged. And they were excluded because I don't seem them as a 'top side'. TBH, I don't think it is fair to take one measure in isolation and argue a case on one stat. I would prefer my first post was read as a whole 'story' or overall strategy the better sides use consistently against us. Anyway, we will find out what we have learnt on Sunday. WCE convincingly beat Richmond by kicking/marking instead of hand balling and had a huge uncontested possession differential. They controlled the game by denying Richmond the ball and denied them contests which is what they thrive on. ie What Hawks and Sydney did to us. We also thrive on the contest so will see how WCE play us. I'm happy to speculate that they will not let us play our game plan on our terms. Will watch with interest what we change from last week to counter WCE.
  9. Lucifer's Hero

    Go and get Gaff!

    Last year the sal cap went up by $2+m per annum. North didn't use it all. New cap is $12.6m @95% they can save $630k per annum and stockpile. So $630k becomes $1.26m then $1.71m. So they could easily have a 'war chest' of around $1.0 - 1.5m just from stockpiling. Not sure how many years it can be stockpiled - it used to be 3 years but don't know now.
  10. Lucifer's Hero

    POST MATCH DISCUSSION - Round 21

    I was simply trying to get behind some of the narrative from our club reps, commentators and DL posters. I wasn't having a go at you - your post provided that vehicle. It wasn't very obvious in my post but I was trying to use 'measures' ie that relate to an outcome which together tell a story, rather than raw statistics which at face value can look good but not say a lot, especially when used in isolation. It took me quite a while to wade thru AFL match day reports to develop the 'measures'. And, as you have a young family there is no need to spend too much time on a response - I accept that you are a constant glass half full person. I don't mind if you don't reply - we will probably only get bogged down in the minutiae or semantics, then agree to disagree or I just let you have the last word ... 😉
  11. Lucifer's Hero

    POST MATCH DISCUSSION - Round 21

    Which stats suggest we can more than compete with the 'top sides'? More i50 - the ball often bounces out again. It is often just ping-pong. i50 to score conversion is a better measure. We have been outdone on conversion rate in most losses. More scoring shots - doesn't look so good when 'rushed behinds' are removed because their defence set up better than our forwards or the defence pressure on 'snaps' is so high. Goal/Behind ratio. Can't be bothered redoing the scores but our poor goal/behind ratio isn't just set shot composure, it is also op defense structures/tactics and our forward structures/tactics. They harass, we fumble. High contested possessions - terrific, except when the outplay us with the less taxing uncontested precision kicks/handballs and kill us because we can't get there to create a contest. It is the controlled 'uncontested possessions' that hurt us when we lose. Hawthorn, Sydney and to some extent Collingwood used this to perfection. Note: it is also how WCE beat Rich this year. Hit outs/Clearances - excellent at hitouts, except look at the losses vs Hawks, Sydney, Richmond - they forgo the hit outs and rove Max brilliantly to win the clearances so were able to neutralise our main weapon. (Coll have Grundy who neutralised Max's impact). League high score for this year - Cumulative percentage of 74% against the top 9 teams. Tackling? We have been out tackled in nearly every game against the 'top sides' As that analysis shows, the top side's tactics to beat us have been very very similar: Neutralise Max, control possessions, out tackle us, crowd our forward line, open up their own plus a few other tricks (especially from Collingwood). It is a pattern to which we have not found answers. I've had a look at the games we lost to 'top sides' (and Geelong) this year and the measures I have noted above we have consistently been beaten on. And, just to rub salt into the wound the only club to not beat a 'top side' is Carlton. There are two clubs who have beaten only one 'top side' are Collinwood and St kilda and in both cases it was us. If you truly think a 'fix' here and a 'tweak' there are going to solve our problems against the way the top sides beat us then you are either not paying attention or not giving their team and their coaches enough credit. So please less of the 'faith' and the platitudes and provide some stats that suggest we can more than compete against the top sides (your words).
  12. Lucifer's Hero

    Oscar In Contract Extension Discussions

    Having read the Hannebery thread I wondered the same thing. Since the early May article in the op we have signed Tom and Jetta who would have deserved a really decent contract. I suspect Gus' terrific form and other club interest may have required more from the salary cap to sign him up. Can easily see those three contracts whittling away the salary cap more than might have been expected. Hopefully, Oscar's contract isn't one of those held over.
  13. Lucifer's Hero

    Oscar In Contract Extension Discussions

    BUMP Three months ago it looked like Oscar would sign before too long. When Tom signed a month later I again thought Oscar's signature wasn't far behind. In absence of other info, I'm still fully confident he will sign but it would be nice to get him signed up. Does anyone have an update? Edit: Could a mod please add a ? to the title.
  14. Lucifer's Hero

    Run home to Finals - 2018

    If North (vs Adel/StK), Geel (vs Feo/GCS) or Ess (vs Rich/PA) win both games they will have 13 wins. If we lose both we drop out of the 8 and stranded on 12 wins. Same for Port. In fact both Demons and Port could drop out of the 8 and replaced (most likely) by the Scott bros. If Port win one and Geel/North win two we are out. So, on my reckoning we must win a game to ensure we make it. Hopefully, this week otherwise it will be a truly nail biting rnd 23, again. It would cut me to the core to drop out of the 8 to make way for a sooky Scott coached team (or heaven forbid TWSNBN).
  15. Lucifer's Hero

    Hogan 2018 season over with foot injury

    Hang on a second, I certainly did not say nor did I imply doctors leaked. Herpes? Good Lord! Get a grip! Anyway, I think people on here should not speculate doctors (or who) did leak like your post implies. And no, from where I sit I don't care who leaked it - that is up to the club to sort out. If he has a foot injury that puts out him for 2018 that is for medicos to work with. I care about Jesse's welfare like I said in my post but as far as 2018 is concerned if he is not available he is not available. Who leaked it is really irrelevant to our season.
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