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Everything posted by binman

  1. A Day at the Races

    My best bet for the weekend is Sprightly Lass at Caulfied. Some very short horses at Caulfield and i think most will salute - French Emotion, Widgee Turf, Kiwia, Nature Strip and Cliff's Edge. Of those only Widgee Turf and perhaps Kiwia are backable really. But i think Sprightly Lass is overs at 3.60 as i think there is only one real danger in that race, Property. The form through Dothraki is very solid and it always gives a great sight. Best value for the day (apart from Sprightly Lass) Higher Ground at at Randwick Best longshots for the day Mo Femme at Morphetville and Guerrier at Randwick
  2. A Day at the Races

    Have only just finished making my final selections and emailing our bets to my betting partner. I found this race super hard in terms of choosing another winner bet in so far as i i kept coming back to trapeze artist (though am concerned it had its grand final last week). I'm going to have to say Le Romain, but really only because Brave Smash and Trapeze Artist were taken. A good horse but again - and at the risk of being stubborn and repeating my error of last week, i'm thinking on speed will be the go with the rail out 6 metres and no wind to bother front runners. Le Romain will be running on hard and i think pinch a place, but of course can win. For my bet in that race i have actually landed on a box trif of these 3 horses and no win bet - which is very unusual for me. Won't pay much but i find it hard to see what else might place - though I'm somewhat has good rating
  3. Be Patient with Lever

    Can we draft Jake Kelly. Apparently a terrific intercept player. Perhaps we meant to and they got the names mixed up. Easy mistake to make. Kelly. Lever. Almost the same
  4. Missed Opportunity - ANZAC Eve Crowd

    1117 posts. And i don't recognise your name. So i am assuming you have changed your name. What was it previously?
  5. Missed Opportunity - ANZAC Eve Crowd

    Yep, i was thinking the same thing. i am still filthy about the loss. Well to be accurate filthy about the manner of the loss. I went with a good mate who has a young fella and so hard to get to games and time is an issue. He was filthy. In the heat of the moment, straight after the game, he said is going to come again this year. don't blame him and doubt he was the only dees fan one at the ground saying the same thing. It was so dispiriting. The funny thing was with all the talk about our strategy of bombing it long we should have done done precisely that when it started raining - not into our forward line to the stupid outnumber but from the backline and centre. Basic wet weather football rather than all those little handballs
  6. Is Goodwin the right guy....

    Interesting point. As i posted a couple od days ago our back six were looking a bit angsty with each orher last game. Maybe nothing. But there is norhing like a bad loss to expose cracks. The camp drama and the trading of watts (and the way it was handled) will have required some good man management skills from goody. And to be honest im not convinced in this regard. Many criticised the players for going to the aflpa. I was more concerned they clearly didn't feel comfortable going to goody. I suspect if roos was still coaching they would have discussed the issue with him first.
  7. Is Goodwin the right guy....

    That is a very hard thing for orhers to gauge
  8. A Day at the Races

    I won't do my form to Friday. But trapeze artist was super impressive kast start. I backed le romain last start at huge odds.. A very talented horse but doesn't win out of turn. Those sort of horses often upset the aplle cart. Like catchy an wstb last sat.
  9. A Day at the Races

    I've got one more week in me Macca. I forgot about the All Aged. My Autumn is sputtering a bit so a chance to go out with a good day. Me and my mate are well up this Autumn but have been scratchy the last few weeks. That said we have avoided wipe outs (those awful days when you get no, or very few collects , which are hard to take when you put as many bets on as we do) which is critical n terms of turning a profit and when we have lost it hasn't been too bad. Actually ended up making a profit on Saturday, which was a pleasant surprise because it most definitely wasn't a leaders track. Had to laugh though with Qulaista leading all the way in the last. Which was good because we were on it. I actually watched that before the Sydney cup and thought there was every chance we had snagged the quaddy as we had 4 good chances. Unfortunately i decided to leave WSTB out (which i almost knew would cots me as i did so). Our bets result for the day, believe it or not was the Winx race. Was super confident in Gailo Chop running second so slammed the quinella (which remarkably paid $6.20) and stood it out second in short trif which we got a bunch of times. Happy to give trif numbers in selected races but still think we should put our best bets up. I like to see what people have selected.
  10. Be Patient with Lever

    Agree. I think the bolded bit is critical as he doesn't look like he has connected fully with his team mates. I had my binos trained on the defenders a fair bit after goals in the last q (as i like to do) and i have to say there was some pretty average body language (eg pointing and gesticulating) and not a little angst generally but also towards Lever. All didn't look rosy, which i guess is to be expected when being smashed but still it wasn't a great look. It made me wonder how well he had been accepted and how well the transition had been managed. I mean he appears pretty confident young man, prepared to share his opinion, lauded for his leadership who is paid probably twice say jetta and Hibberd and who has struggled thus far. On field he looks a young man devoid of confidence and second guessing himself. To be honest it is the coaching staff's job to help him with that and they need to accept some of the responsibility for where he is at in terms of how he is travelling emotionally. Not all. But some. Which is query i have with Goody - how strong is his emotional intelligence? A problem the coaching staff now face is that if it was say Frost they would put him back to the VFL to regain his confidence, as they did with Hunt. But dropping lever is problematical as it would point a huge mainstream and social media spotlight on him and might impact even more on his confidence. Imagine the social media jibes he would get playing at a wet and windy Casey fields.
  11. Be Patient with Lever

    That's all well and good. But 5 of his first seven kicks went to a Hawks player
  12. Is Goodwin the right guy....

    Yes is my short answer. But i have some nagging doubts i have to say. Can't really put my finger on it but i think it related a bit to a feeling he can be bit inflexible in terms of man management and his non negotiables. I can't find the quote but i found in interesting Clarko saying he thought the dees lost out from the move of playing Jones on Mitchell. Perhaps a little dig at Goody? Even if not i'm sure Goody will be smarting a bit with any suggestion he was out coached.
  13. Round 4 Non MFC games

    You and 50, 000 others. Which is exactly why the contention that Channel 7 would actively encourage the AFL to give Carlton such times slots is so off the mark. Unless of course you think they have got confused and are actually trying to achieve low ratings. This is down to the AFL.
  14. Round 4 Non MFC games

    Channel 7 must be so pleased they used their influence to give carlton another fta night game.
  15. A Day at the Races

    Oh oh. Fotoo came from last. On the rails! Abort Will Robinson! Unfortunately too late
  16. A Day at the Races

    In terms of trying to guess the pattern of races it is obviously a bit riky if you punt as i do which is putting all bets on at the start of the day. If i get the pattern wrong i struggle. Last week i read it the same and picking Houtzen was a result of that. But it actually ended up playing ok and horses from mid field had their chances and i couldn't sang any more. That said i had remarkable number of seconds last week (across 3 states). Five or six i think from memory. In an ideal world i would put the first couple on and get a read of the pattern and then adjust selections as required. But my model of punting with a mate doesn't allow that as neither of us can focus on the races enough during the day (other than listening to them) Determining bets between races can be very time consuming, even if you have done the form thoroughly and have narrowed selections down to a handful of chances (which is how i do form)
  17. A Day at the Races

    I hadn't seen that but have backed it. I think i may have posted this before but Sportsbet have a seemingly standing offer of the first four races money back up to $50 if your horse finished 2-4. It always syd and melb but changes for the third venue. The week it is Morphetville so really getting each way with Music bay in a small field. I've done the form for Randwick with the thought it will suit horses on the speed and and sitting 2-3 of the fence (so favouring horses from barriers 8-13). It is one reason i also really like Hiyaam.
  18. A Day at the Races

    Morning punters. Apologies for not putting up my best etc last couple of weeks. Have been flat out Sat mornings. Coincided with a scratchy couple of weeks for me on the punt so i can assure you did not miss much, though my value runner last week was Houtzen (which was just about my only winner). Another tough day in sydney. But big fields mean good vale so fingers crossed. So here are my tips, all at Randwick Best bet: Race 2 no 2 Isaurian Best value: Race 8 no 10 Aloft Best longshot: Race 6 n no 10 She’s a Treasure Good luck on what is really the last day of Autumn for me save a couple of races i like in Morphetville in the next couple of weeks.
  19. Match preview and team selection - Round 4

    If tyson is over his illness in time for next game the selection will say a bit about whether or not tyson is seen as best 22 (for example if it was oliver rhete would be no question of him coming straight back in, regardless of the form of his replacement)
  20. Left behind again - ground upgrades

    They should put old fashioned sky lights in!
  21. Yes. Its called getting older and stronger. He is a kid still. Like lever he has just tuened 22. Brown is taller, older and stronger. Of course he is going to get out muscled sometimes by seasoned kpfs like brown At least he is not being out muscled by small forwards like menzel or debutants. Shoved is a good word actually. He was outmarked twice, with one being a blatant push in the back.
  22. A shocker? Seriously? Didn't you say at one stage you did some scouting for afl clubs? And your assessment of Tmac's game is that he had a shocker? Perhaps you went to tge Gary Lyon school of scouting. I would urge you to consider not giving up your day job. A shocker? Gold.
  23. I was thinking the same drunkn. I live in alrona so werribee farly close. The ground looks terrific after rhe upgrade. I have always liked the ground, sitting just by the river amongst tgevriver gums. Not sure if i can swing it though
  24. Training week commencing 9 April

    Saty was there no doubt. Can't imagine the club not telling him abour the session and where it was. Particularly if he asked them.