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Fat Tony

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About Fat Tony

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  1. Fat Tony

    2019 best 22 and depth chart

    I still think we are lacking two good wingers. The way I see it: Jones - Really a natural inside midfielder. Not quick enough and not good enough overhead. Really a natural inside midfielder. Stretch - He plays like a gut running outside midfielder. Not quick enough and not good enough overhead. Coming back from a foot injury. Hunt - Has played mostly at half back and could become a small pressure forward. Endurance and skills are the question marks. Baker - Looks a likely type but unproven. Has good size, pace and endurance. Skills are the question mark. Fritsch - I prefer him off half back given the way he reads the aerial ball. Not sure he has the breakaway speed for the wing. J Smith - Has played mostly off half back. Has the pace required and good overhead. Skills are the question mark. JKH - Similar player to Stretch. Harmes - Probably provides the best combination of skill, pace, endurance and overhead ability but he is also one of our best four inside midfielders. Kolodjashnij - Has mostly played off half back so far. Not sure on the endurance/pace and feel half back is likely to be his best position. Lewis - Too slow. Salem - Not overly quick and better off half back. Hannan - Has a good combination of pace, endurance and size. Not a great kick however.
  2. Fat Tony

    Farewell Jesse Hogan

    We could only trade up if the holders of top picks are willing to trade but we have live pick trading this year, so this should be easier. GCS will almost certainly hold picks 2 & 3 and the SA clubs might look to deal given two of the top prospects are from SA. And Carlton may be willing to part with pick 1 to GWS to get Shiel. There are also a number of FS and Acadamy players available, so there will be the ability to package picks to move up or down the draft. In saying this, I think we have recently shown good ability to draft well with lower picks. so I don't think we should be scared of trading Hogan for a combination of lower picks as long as they aggregate points equate to our valuation of Hogan. If anything, a good drafting team is able to produce greater value with lower picks. Freo currently hold #5 (which will move to #6) and nothing else of value this year.
  3. Fat Tony

    Farewell Jesse Hogan

    I have us winning the flag, but wanted to be conservative in the valuation.
  4. Fat Tony

    Farewell Jesse Hogan

    Goodwin was pretty strong that he wanted Hogan to stay when he was On the Couch recently. Goodwin may have changed his mind since then, but it may also be that Hogan doesn't want to extend his contract and we are trying to make the most of it by being open to trading him this year.
  5. Fat Tony

    Farewell Jesse Hogan

    I understand that points are only used for Father Son and Academy selections, but the formula is based on the historical success of each pick and it is a good guide for each pick’s relative value IMO. In my mind a fair deal for Hogan would be around 3,400 points in draft picks, which is worth pick 1 this year (likely Walsh, Lukosius or Rankine) plus an early third round pick. I would assume we finish 5th next year and would value our first round 2019 pick at 1,161 less 10% = 1,044 points and I would assume Fremantle finishes 10th, valuing their first round 2019 pick at 1,322 points. The 10% discount rate on both reflects the time value of this year’s pick over last years. Based on this analysis, pick 4 and Freo’s 2019 first round pick is thereabouts fair value. In saying this, I would take accept combination of swapped picks in the draft to achieve 3,400 points.
  6. I would like to see us try and talk Waite into a comeback. He's still got it and would be a good short-term option if Hogan leaves.
  7. Fat Tony

    Changes v Hawthorn - Semi Final

    Spargo is a good young player but lacks the body strength required at this stage. IMO we would be better off with JKH coming in. A case could also be made for Hunt, Joel Smith or even Vince being the inclusion if he is fit. We also need to think about how we tag Issac Smith this week. Tyson on the wing is not a good match up and he could be omitted due to the opposition.
  8. Fat Tony

    Last chance for Kennedy-Harris?

    JKH should have held his spot IMO, with Spargo a bit lucky. (I like Spargo but he is only a baby.)
  9. Fat Tony

    Bernie Vince Retires

    Well done Bernie! You are one of my favourites. Let's hope you haven't played your last game and you get to lift the cup!
  10. Fat Tony

    Get SHORTY

  11. Fat Tony


    We lost on the weekend because of poor goal kicking but there are a number of other problems with our selection and game plan IMO. The decision to play Pedersen as a backman when the Swans had only two key forwards was clearly an error and looked a problem after 5 minutes. It took until half time for Goodwin to see this, which was very disappointing. This included a 5-minute period in the second quarter when we had OMac, Frost and Pedersen in defence, TMac in the ruck and Hogan and Gawn on the interchange. In this period we looked unbalanced in the backline and had no target going forward. Why did we keep kicking to Vandenberg when he was playing on Aliar? It looked like we actively sought to go through Vandenberg when we had other options. The structure of our defence on the MCG is porous. It looks like we are trying to pressure in the fat part of the ground rather than inside our 50 or folding back to defence. Goodwin loves having a player off the back of the square every centre bounce, but it means we are unable to lock the ball inside 50 when we win a clearance.
  12. Fat Tony

    Changes vs Sydney

    The Sexton goal would have been terrible play even if it had missed. OMac misread the flight of the ball and then was so slow to get back that Leslie beat him to the goal line despite starting well in front. OMac started the year well but has been poor since mid year.
  13. Fat Tony

    Changes vs Sydney

    OMac was good against Adelaide but otherwise his form has been down the last two months. Some will put it down to Lever being out of the side but it is more than that IMO. I am not an OMac bear and can see him being a good AFL player in time, but I think Pedersen might be a better option at present. Especially this week against McCartin. Letting the Sexton goal from 80m bounce through (and getting behind Leslie who would have kicked the goal if it didn't) was particularly poor play from OMac.
  14. Fat Tony

    Oskar Baker out for 6 weeks with Hamstring

    Hard to see him coming back this season. The VFL Grand Final is on 23 September.
  15. Fat Tony

    Casey Demons v Northern Blues - Round 18

    We would be better off going with TMac, Frost or Pedo for another year IMO and hoping Max stays fit. We won't win the flag if Max goes down anyway. This saves a list spot to try and find a Vandenberg, Ronke or Graham type pick.