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Fat Tony

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  1. Fat Tony

    2019 best 22 and depth chart

    I don't think we were his club of choice.
  2. Fat Tony

    Wallace Rates Dees Trade Period

    That's one way of looking at it. But from my perspective Beams is a gun, finishing top 10 in the last two Brownlows. He is arguably Collingwood's best player now. My rankings would be: 1. Richmond 2. Essendon 3. Collingwood 4. Carlton 5. Hawthorn 6. Fremantle 7. Geelong 8. North Melbourne 9. St Kilda 10. Melbourne 11. Brisbane 12. Sydney 13. Adelaide 14. Port Adelaide 15. West Coast 16. Western Bulldogs 17. GCS 18. GWS
  3. Fat Tony

    Wallace Rates Dees Trade Period

    I don't think Plough is that far off the mark. The big winners of the trade period were Richmond, Essendon and Collingwood who all picked up star players for nothing or cheap value. We came out with a C+ despite not winning on any individual trade. The grade I would question most the D+ on Geelong given they picked up Dahlhaus for nothing. I think he penalised them for not getting the Kelly trade done, but I don't think that is really fair.
  4. Fat Tony

    Daniel Menzel

    This is probably plan B. But I think we could do with another alternative on our list.
  5. Fat Tony

    Daniel Menzel

    I understand the knock on Menzel but his offensive side of the game is elite. He ranked 16th in the league for goals per game last year ahead of Tom Lynch (GCS), Walker, Greene, Gray, Curnow, Membrey and Betts. I would be in favour of bringing him onto the list instead of pick 90. What if Weideman or McDonald get injured this year?
  6. Fat Tony

    2019 best 22 and depth chart

    I still think we are lacking two good wingers. The way I see it: Jones - Really a natural inside midfielder. Not quick enough and not good enough overhead. Really a natural inside midfielder. Stretch - He plays like a gut running outside midfielder. Not quick enough and not good enough overhead. Coming back from a foot injury. Hunt - Has played mostly at half back and could become a small pressure forward. Endurance and skills are the question marks. Baker - Looks a likely type but unproven. Has good size, pace and endurance. Skills are the question mark. Fritsch - I prefer him off half back given the way he reads the aerial ball. Not sure he has the breakaway speed for the wing. J Smith - Has played mostly off half back. Has the pace required and good overhead. Skills are the question mark. JKH - Similar player to Stretch. Harmes - Probably provides the best combination of skill, pace, endurance and overhead ability but he is also one of our best four inside midfielders. Kolodjashnij - Has mostly played off half back so far. Not sure on the endurance/pace and feel half back is likely to be his best position. Lewis - Too slow. Salem - Not overly quick and better off half back. Hannan - Has a good combination of pace, endurance and size. Not a great kick however.
  7. Fat Tony

    Farewell Jesse Hogan

    We could only trade up if the holders of top picks are willing to trade but we have live pick trading this year, so this should be easier. GCS will almost certainly hold picks 2 & 3 and the SA clubs might look to deal given two of the top prospects are from SA. And Carlton may be willing to part with pick 1 to GWS to get Shiel. There are also a number of FS and Acadamy players available, so there will be the ability to package picks to move up or down the draft. In saying this, I think we have recently shown good ability to draft well with lower picks. so I don't think we should be scared of trading Hogan for a combination of lower picks as long as they aggregate points equate to our valuation of Hogan. If anything, a good drafting team is able to produce greater value with lower picks. Freo currently hold #5 (which will move to #6) and nothing else of value this year.
  8. Fat Tony

    Farewell Jesse Hogan

    I have us winning the flag, but wanted to be conservative in the valuation.
  9. Fat Tony

    Farewell Jesse Hogan

    Goodwin was pretty strong that he wanted Hogan to stay when he was On the Couch recently. Goodwin may have changed his mind since then, but it may also be that Hogan doesn't want to extend his contract and we are trying to make the most of it by being open to trading him this year.
  10. Fat Tony

    Farewell Jesse Hogan

    I understand that points are only used for Father Son and Academy selections, but the formula is based on the historical success of each pick and it is a good guide for each pick’s relative value IMO. In my mind a fair deal for Hogan would be around 3,400 points in draft picks, which is worth pick 1 this year (likely Walsh, Lukosius or Rankine) plus an early third round pick. I would assume we finish 5th next year and would value our first round 2019 pick at 1,161 less 10% = 1,044 points and I would assume Fremantle finishes 10th, valuing their first round 2019 pick at 1,322 points. The 10% discount rate on both reflects the time value of this year’s pick over last years. Based on this analysis, pick 4 and Freo’s 2019 first round pick is thereabouts fair value. In saying this, I would take accept combination of swapped picks in the draft to achieve 3,400 points.
  11. Fat Tony

    Delisting, Trade and FA discussion 2018

    I would like to see us try and talk Waite into a comeback. He's still got it and would be a good short-term option if Hogan leaves.
  12. Fat Tony

    Changes v Hawthorn - Semi Final

    Spargo is a good young player but lacks the body strength required at this stage. IMO we would be better off with JKH coming in. A case could also be made for Hunt, Joel Smith or even Vince being the inclusion if he is fit. We also need to think about how we tag Issac Smith this week. Tyson on the wing is not a good match up and he could be omitted due to the opposition.
  13. Fat Tony

    Last chance for Kennedy-Harris?

    JKH should have held his spot IMO, with Spargo a bit lucky. (I like Spargo but he is only a baby.)
  14. Fat Tony

    Bernie Vince Retires

    Well done Bernie! You are one of my favourites. Let's hope you haven't played your last game and you get to lift the cup!
  15. Fat Tony

    Get SHORTY