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About Thrice

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  1. Thrice

    Umpiring v West Coast in Perth

    Stevic also good. The Footballistics book released a couple of months ago analyses the 'noise of affirmation' and it is real. Furthermore, it is the single largest source of home ground advantage in the AFL (as it is in most sports, it turns out: see Russia's performance in the World Cup as a neat piece of anecdotal evidence). It leads to an average of 1-2 goals advantage per game to the home side against an interstate club. The effect is severely diminished when two clubs from the same state play each other, as the crowd noise is more even. To further prove the point, the effect is greatest in WA and SA where they still get highly partisan crowds for the derbies. The greatest concern is that that AFL umpring department refuse to acknowledge it. If they were to acknowledge it exists they could coach the umpires on strategies to deal with it.
  2. Thrice

    Roosy on Dees vs Swans

    Nope, Ben's right. We beat North Melbourne and Adelaide (first time) when they were both in the 8. It is calculated on the top 8 as it stands right now. Indeed, the wins against those two are the reason they aren't in the 8. (The less said about the Cats the better).
  3. Thrice

    King: Oliver can be Dee's Dusty

    These are the AFL Player rating stats, which are based on impact on the game, not fantasy points. It is as absurd to say that they are completely meaningless as to say that they are the only system that provides any insight into a player's value. For what it's worth, this system is the one taken most seriously by AFL coaching panels. The players at the top end of this are all at the pointy end of the AFLCA votes. A good example is the contrast between Tom Mitchell's game and Clarry's on the weekend. Mitchell scored 159 supercoach points, but only 16 Player rating and didn't get a single coaches vote. Clarry got 136 supercoach points and 29 player rating points and 7 AFLCA votes (Max go the 10 votes with 131 and 26).
  4. Thrice

    Jason Taylor Resume

    Menagola wasn't on anyone's radar kicking dew around the WAFL. Geelong scouted him and got him. Well done. But in reality we got Fritsch in similar circumstances. Ben Brown had an unspectacular junior career and North took a chance on him as a 21 year old. He'd been playing more as a ruck and was only the season before he was drafted that he switched to a key forward. Again, see Fritsch. Hulett didn't make, but he was a fourth round pick based on needs moreso than best available. Similarly, it's a bit of a stretch to call a bloke who's played 30 games across 4 seasons taken a pick 40 a bust. There's plenty taken in the third round that play precisely 0 AFL games.
  5. Thrice

    Peter Jackson's Replacement?

    I posted some research early in this thread that points to organisations that recruit a CEO from within their organisation typically outperform those that recruit from outside. It is generally only when an organisation is a basket case that an external appointment is a better option. Further to that, in about two thirds of cases CEOs are internally appointed.
  6. Thrice

    All Australian watch

    Pies fans would be just as resolute about Grundy being ruck. It's very tight. I can't help but think whoever wins next week is in the box seat. Hogan CHF, sort of on the assumption that Darling is a forward pocket and Brown full forward. If Darling is considered a CHF he would be ahead of Hogan. Oliver a very strong possibility of a bench spot. Won't start on the field because he's in his third season and has to be hazed. Others have played AA quality games but haven't strung a heap together. Jetta and Hibberd were both were poor for the first 5 rounds, along with the rest of the back 6 (besides Oscar). Melksham has had a few blinders amongst a greater number of good ordinary games (like today). We're playing so well because we are very even across the park. Look at our spread in the votes.
  7. Thrice

    Adelaide oval seating (vs Port)

    The Hill is where the opposition cheer squad sits. Grab a GA ticket and head over there. Great atmosphere when we're winning.
  8. 2015 AFL Draft: 1. Carlton: Jacob Weitering 2. Brisbane: Josh Schache 3. Sydney: Callum Mills (Academy selection - matched bid from Melbourne) 4. Melbourne: Clayton Oliver 5. Essendon: Darcy Parish 6. Essendon: Aaron Francis 7. GWS: Jacob Hopper (Academy selection - matched bid from Gold Coast) 8. Gold Coast: Callum Ah Chee 9. Melbourne: Sam Weideman 10. Carlton: Harry McKay (12. Carlton: Charlie Curnow - the only other player in the draft to go close to Clarry's impact) ---- Essendon were extremely keen on Oliver. One version of events had us trading up to Pick 3 from Pick 6 to get ahead of Essendon to ensure we got him.
  9. Thrice

    Peter Jackson's Replacement?

    Freakonomics podcast did a great series on CEOs a couple of months back. Both empirically and anecodotally in almost all cases it is better to recruit from within for a CEO. In a business sense, companies that do have stronger growth, shareholder confidence etc than those that recruit from outside. Those that recruit from outside tend to change the rest of the executive, and a whole heap of corporate knowledge, strategy and culture walks out of the door with them. Then people further down the organisation are left rudderless unless the change is managed well (always incredibly hard to do). The only attraction for recruiting from outside is if the organisation is a basketcase and the culture needs to be turned around. This was true pre-PJ but, at least from the outside, the opposite seems to be true. If Josh Mahoney or George de Crespigny are being groomed for the role and then we would be mad not to appoint them unless an absolute superstar candidate is available. Look at how the AFL has appointed it last few CEOs, by grooming through the head of football operations role, during the period where the league has expanded from a parochial Victorian league to the dominant sporting code in Australia: then compare that to NRL which recruits from outside and hasn't grown at anything like the rate of the AFL.
  10. Thrice

    Goal Kicking reliability on SEN

    Yet he was 26.6 last year. It's in his head because his technique is actually quite sound as he demonstrated last year. Melksham has an 'idiosyncratic' technique that he seemed to be able to tame last year but is struggling with this year.
  11. Thrice

    Goal Kicking reliability on SEN

    Tommy McDonald has only had 9 shots for 8.1. Petracca was in the top 10 most accurate last year, as was Melksham who has also struggled this year. McDonald and Hogan were also in the top 10 and look to have kept up their form (touch wood).
  12. Thrice

    Is Brayshaw more rounded than the Trac?

    He looked underdone on the weekend and Saints put a lot of time into him when he was on the ball: I reckon that incident with the 50 was the frustration boiling over. It was the first time I'd noticed him commit an undisciplined act on the field in his career. He is a brash character off the field but tends to contain that very well on the field. Oliver and Hogan are far more hot headed than these two.
  13. Thrice

    What is the Weid's role

    The way I see it is that he is that his role is highly structural. We want to play a territory game and he creates a contest every time the ball comes near him. If he doesn't take a mark he is quick at ground level and instinctively tackles to force a stoppage and reset. He rarely gets beaten. As his confidence and strength grows he will clunk a few more marks, he has decent timing in the air. His chop out ruck work is serviceable, which frees up Tommy to roam the wings when going through the midfield. I have a feeling the coaches would be quite pleased with how he is going.
  14. Thrice

    Post Match Discussion - Round 7

    There wasn’t an article on the AFL site this morning which confirmed that he has the worst conversion.
  15. Thrice

    Post Match Discussion - Round 7

    Actually we would’ve taken Brayshaw and Lever. Fact.