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Watson11 last won the day on October 25

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  1. I’ll take a bath and drink some of the water while I dream about the next 4 flags in a row....
  2. Watson11

    2019 Fixture

    In the US the NFL draw is biased but not as badly as ours. They have groups where every team plays the others twice in that group which creates some equity in their group. The AFL could do something similar: 1. Two conferences of nine teams (5 Vic and 4 interstate) who play each other twice. To be fair each conference to have 1 team from each non vic state and split the smaller supporter bases (Saints, North, dogs, us). That is 16 games. 2. Other 6 games play against teams from the other conference including two games against a rival ie showdown, Coll v Mel if needed etc. These games are also based on ladder position from prior seasons with 2 games (one home and one away) against 1-3, 2 against 4-6 etc. means playing 5 of the teams in the other group with one double up. 3. Finals could just be top 4 from each conference and same as current series. Or ditch the pre finals bye and have the 4th from each conference play a wildcard team from the best performed 5th and 6th from both conferences to make the final 8. Would even up the travel for all teams, not lose rivalry games, and the draw difficulty would be much closer for everyone. Conference strength would change year to year but come finals it would be fair.
  3. Watson11

    2019 Fixture

    Better than most comparisons. Funny to look at the 2018 analysis that had us as the equal 3rd most difficult draw! Yet everyone else saying we had an easy draw by the end of the season. I don't mind our double ups and difficulty of the draw. In 2018 Richmond, Geelong, and Hawthorn were handed ridiculously good schedules. In 2019 all the top teams have tough schedules due to more Thursday night games. I think the top end of the draw is fairer this year. I also think it helps us as there is a lot of "veterans" in the other top teams that will be more injury prone than our younger list.
  4. Watson11

    2019 Ladder Predictions

    Now the draw is out time for ladder predictions Adelaide (soft draw) Melbourne (6/6/6 and learnt to pkay the G) GWS (soft draw) WC (Sheed has stepped up to solve their cp weakness) Richmond (Drop back because still weak around the contest 6/6/6 will affect them) Collingwood (Tough draw, backing Melbourne but could swap with 2nd if they have our measure) North (Ok draw and will improve) Essendon (May just scrape in) Hawthorn (Too old) Brisbane (Big improvers) Sydney (Drop back some more) Dogs (Soft draw) Geelong (Tough first 12 weeks. Season over by the bye) Fremantle (Improve over last year) Port (Cooked) St Kilda Carlton GC
  5. Watson11

    2019 Fixture

    Surely Champion data have stuffed up the analysis. Geelong are bracketed as one of the top 4 toughest double ups, not Collingwood or GWS. I'd put Geelong maybe 9th or 10th. If they fixed that then Richmonds draw is in the top 4 or 5 most difficult. Richmond also have 2 sets of back to back 6 day breaks this year, versus none in 2018, so they have a tougher schedule.
  6. Watson11

    2019 Fixture

    I agree Geelong, Sydney, and Hawks will slide. Suspect Adelaide, North and Bombers to come up. Don't think Port will. Is Gil from Adelaide? They have no back to back 6 day breaks. Have 12 games at Adelaide Oval and mostly very winnable away games (Sydney where they do well, North at Marvel, St's, Lions, Cats, Suns, Carlton, Dogs). They double up against 2 bottom 3 teams despite not finishing bottom 6. They won 12 games in 2018 having a shocker, and have been gifted an extra 2 wins this year. I can't see them winning less than 15 games and they will probably win 17 and finish top 2. Considering Essendon finished equal with Adelaide on points and percentage, the contrast could not be more different. They double up against 4 of last years top 9 (like us but we earned it) plus the Dockers who will improve and be tough in Perth. The first 8 weeks could cook Essendons season with 4 x 6 day turnarounds and 1 x 5 day turnaround in a 7 week stretch. Let's see how Danihers groin stands up to that. The back half they have two 6 day turnarounds leading into away games (Eagles at Optus, Adelaide), and head to the Gold Coast after Adelaide (kind of game they will drop). I expect them to be more hot and cold than they were in 2018 and no certainty to make the 8 despite looking good on paper. We have a tough first 5 weeks due to short turnarounds (5 games in 25 days), but after that we have a good draw and will not have any excuses if we don't finish top 4 (we should be aiming for top 2). We can beat any team anywhere in 2019.
  7. Watson11

    2019 Fixture

    Our record at the MCG last year (and the year before) was 50:50..... We have a better record elsewhere. Hopefully we sorted that out at the end of the year and this year will be better.
  8. Watson11

    2019 Fixture

    The NT helped us recover financially and imo now we are decent we should support the NT. We should have an advantage up there by now. We've played it enough. I can't see why the geniuses at the AFL can't arrange a fixture with no more than one 6 day break in a row. Two in a row starts to hurt teams. This year Collingwood, Port, Adelaide, and Sydney had back to back 6 day breaks. Adelaide and Collingwood had bad soft tissue injuries. Port ended up cooked. Three 6 day breaks in a row kills seasons and should never happen (ie us in 2017). It's why we should have opened on Friday night.
  9. Watson11

    2019 Fixture

    The annoying thing is we will have two days less turnaround over the first 4 weeks than Richmond before ANZAC eve. We’ll have 3 6 day breaks, Richmond 1. Same re Collingwood and Essendon. No surprise to see the AFL favour Richmond and Collingwood there.... They know revenue will be great if they have good seasons...
  10. Watson11

    AFL.com.au Dees Best 22

    They are 2018 figures. I agree with you re Omac. If you look at career stats Omac is slightly ahead at 25.1% versus 26.7% for Frosty. Frosts 2018 one on one stats support your prior views (and Goody's) that the forward/midfield pressure was the big issue with our leaking goals at times. Frost didn't suddenly go from an average to great one on one player. He was able to improve so much because our forwards and mids lifted the pressure out of sight. If we maintain that in 2019 it really won't matter who is in between Omac and Frost, we'll be hard to score against and bolstering our defense is really icing on the cake. May and Lever are also great leaders, so will help the mids remain accountable.
  11. Watson11

    2019 Fixture

    I don't think so. I think the teams they play twice will be 3 in their 6 based on ladder positions, 1 in each of the other two groups of 6, with a showdown guaranteed against Port. Last years the teams Adelaide played twice were Port, Richmond, Melbourne, Carlton, and the Giants. They'll play Port twice and double up against 2 of Geelong, Sydney, North, and Essendon in 2019. They'll double up against one of the top 6 and have requested Hawthorn, Collingwood, and Richmond before us...
  12. Watson11

    2019 Fixture

    Read yesterday that Adelaide requested 6 home games against Melbourne teams (Richmond, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong, Carlton, and Essendon). Surely they don’t want to play in Alice again!
  13. Watson11

    AFL.com.au Dees Best 22

    I think binman was comparing Omac and May at the same age. Frost had 222.85m gained per game versus Omacs 200m so not too different. Omac had 2.08 turnovers per game versus Frost 3.08. Frost 2.77 score involvements versus Omac at 1.84. They are close. Different strengths and weaknesses.
  14. Watson11

    AFL.com.au Dees Best 22

    Frost got Hawkins for a quarter at Geelong and 4 quarters in elimination. Absolutely got Buddy and held him goalless. Could be right about Hawthorn although I thought Omac picked up Schoemaker but can’t really remember.
  15. Watson11

    AFL.com.au Dees Best 22

    http://m.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/ Definitely Omac was getting the key defender until after our Geelong game when Frost went in front of him and got Buddy, Hawkins, Kennedy, Walker etc and yes a large part of it is our forward and mid pressure improved which IMO is the key to us being genuine flag contenders. But in that period Omac was getting the second forward so would have also had improved stats. Omac and Frost will both be in the 22 next year until Lever comes back in and it probably comes down to who is in better form at the time. Good position to be in compared to the issues we had when Lever went down this year.