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grazman

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Everything posted by grazman

  1. Normally I'm a glass half empty kind of fella, except when it comes to footy and especially our prospects in the preseason. I have tended towards a more sanguine approach of our upcoming fortunes often dismissing the pessimistic forecasts of independent observers as being ill informed or waiting to be discredited (like any 'normal' football supporter does). I've been burnt over the last decade as invariably they were right and I was wrong. What makes the situation a little different now is the large amount of chatter about our improved prospects. One example that I came across recently was when I listened to one of my favourite AFL podcasts (Junktime) which was recorded just before the draft. https://www.podchaser.com/podcasts/junktime-afl-podcast-with-adam-123464/episodes/pre-draft-2017-with-former-afl-23371913 Craig Coombes (ex AFL recruiter for Port who also worked at Hawthorn as a scout/spy as well) spoke glowing of our prospects. He's on the podcast from about the 29 minute mark for those of you not into this type of comedy. He was being asked about the lists as they stand. He has a formula that he uses based on 1-4 year players on the list with a differential applied to those that have played 15+ games and those that are in the best 22. He gives them a score out of 10. In a nutshell he had Melbourne ranked first for development (10/10) and can see us doing a Bulldogs or Richmond this season. He had us with twenty 1-4 year players with ten 15+ games of these he has assessed that 8 are in our best 22. (I’m guessing here he’s talking about Oliver, Hogan, Brayshaw, Petracca, Hunt, Salem Lever, and you can raffle the rest) Yes, confirmation bias here is a dangerous thing, but it’s interesting that a lot of non- Melbourne people are being very bullish about us (which I genuinely can't recall having happened for well over a decade) the same types that when we were crap- told us in no uncertain terms we were crap- so there maybe something in this. I think we have some players who will stamp themselves as being genuinely elite in the next 12-18 months and I'm still a blue sky junkie when it comes to guys like Joel Smith and Sam Weideman. Anyway I always think it’s interesting when a complete outsider with AFL experience is so bullish about us. As the man in the hat would say.. 'do yourself a favour'.
  2. Took the foot off the gas or ran out of petrol? It's a young list and a long season. It's hard in the backend of the season when you are relying on a core group who only have one or two preseasons under their belt. I think this year with a strong core of players with 3 or 4 preseasons under their belt now it will be different.
  3. THE BOMBERS' DOPING SAGA - THE FAT LADY SINGS

    Property Crimes in Policing parlance is the crime linked to drug activities such as break and enters, stolen property etc. Any dodgy land dealings would normally be handled by the Fraud Squad.
  4. It didn't happen in Australia, ergo Australian Police can only assist the investigating jurisdiction, that being Indonesia. If charges are to be laid they must be done by the Indonesian Police who would then seek to extradite the alleged offender. I'd suggest there's next to no chance of that happening.
  5. List Analysis Potential v Reality

    I remember 1991 well as I was in Melbourne studying. Cuthbertson was on fire for a brief period kicked 7 against North in rd 4 (which I was there to see) and followed it up with 7 against the Pies the following week. Leigh Matthews mentioned he was the difference between the two sides. Rd 6 he kicked 5 against the Bears, but unfortunately for Darren and the club his star dimmed. Only ended up playing 32 games in 3 seasons. He'd had a pretty hard road to get to the club and unfortunately I think some off field issues got the better of him.
  6. The 2018 Fixture Thread

    Gold Coast v Nth in Cairns - how many will tune in for that blockbuster
  7. Mahoney, get away

    How could anyone realistically know whether we paid 'overs' for Lever and accepted 'unders' for Jack. It's base on supporter expectations and not reality. Lever got to Melbourne, Jack got to the club he chose and the club got the deals done with a minimum of fuss. As Prodee said it's about reputation, if you want to be a destination club, it helps if you can get deals done. Compare that to the potential [censored] fight the Bulldogs have if they can't move Stringer on.
  8. Port the big winners in Trade Week?

    It's not what you paid, it's what you will pay. I actually think Rockliff is the biggest risk for Port. Fagan didn't fight to keep Rocky, just like we didn't fight to keep Col. Rockliff has knifed every coach he's ever played under and has a dubious off field attitude. He will need a strong leadership group and culture to keep him in line. How strong is Port's 'never tear us apart culture'? They were pretty tepid against really competitive sides last year and there are serious question marks about Boak's leadership. Some of their other senior players previous off field endeavours (Dixon) might well resurface if Rockliff is allowed to run his own race. Those spruiking the 'success' of Port's recruiting this year need to consider whether their predictions about what all three bring to Port's performance next year is a realistic appraisal based on their outputs at their previous clubs as opposed to heroic assumptions about them actually improving on what they've demonstrated as relatively senior players (unlikely in my view that Motlop becomes a more consistent player because he's settled with family, unlikely that Jack fulfils his potential released from the crippling burden of Melbourne supporters expectations now he's only worth pick 31 rather than Pick 1 and unlikely that Rockliff becomes a real leader rather than just a cultural turd).
  9. Farewell Jack Watts

    I doubt he'd agree to that, Geelong/Port he's a reasonable chance of playing in finals. Brisbane and Gold Coast not so much.
  10. Mahoney, get away

    I refute the entire premise of the thread as being based on pure speculation. We paid overs... meaning we could have got the same players/picks for less... which if you aren't part of the FD and aren't negotiating with rival clubs you know how?... or maybe we should be one of those clubs that just doesn't do any deals at all.
  11. WELCOME TO THE MELBOURNE FOOTBALL CLUB - JAKE LEVER

    I keep waiting for confirmation of what's happening with Leaver, but with the Free Agency period not closing until Sunday, maybe we have to wait to next week when it's confirmed Brisvegas actually have pick 19 to trade.
  12. Farewell Jack Watts

    Whether accidentally or deliberately I think you've hit at least one of the principal nails on the head here Junior. Will Jack Watts ever be great? I think if you look at the truly great players they help shape and drive the culture of the clubs that they are in. There are some notable exceptions, but most of them do. For me, Jack won't be 'great' and I'm not afraid to trade him on that basis.
  13. Farewell Jack Watts

    Thanks Spook, Many on here won't like it, but I don't think it's the worst deal in the world particularly as I think all our late picks will be earmarked for rookie upgrades anyway.
  14. Farewell Jack Watts

    There are a lot of opinions on here, to paraphrase an old saying I doubt Jack is as good or bad as many on here are making him out to be. It tends to remind me of the current US President - people aren't interested in the truth as much as they are in confirmation bias. It's why Fake News keeps getting a run. It's the most simplistic form of counter-narrative*. You don't need to worry about tiresome tasks like researching or thinking to refute arguments based on evidence and logic. You simply label something as being incompatible with what you choose to believe. It will usually strike a chord with a certain number of people who I'd like to think are the vocal minority, because fear is a greater driver than hope. * other than the age old 'I know you are, but what am I?' rebuttal.
  15. Farewell Jack Watts

    Is that what someone has told you or what you think will happen? News today that we're one of the clubs circling Zac Clarke so it would make sense we're after a back up ruck.
  16. Farewell Jack Watts

    Pffft...is that your best Trump impersonation?
  17. Farewell Jack Watts

    I carried a grudge against one of my employees at work. She wasn't performing. I had a performance meeting with her and directed her to do some things.... she didn't do them. Now she works somewhere else. Good result for me and my other employees and maybe for her as well (though I really don't care much).
  18. Farewell Jack Watts

    Obviously that stat doesn't include tackles then.
  19. 2017 Keith ‘Bluey’ Truscott Memorial Trophy

    Not as surprised as others were in regards to Viney finishing 2nd. He's one of our most influential players. When he doesn't play we simply aren't as good. His finish is also somewhat indicative of how he polled in the Brownlow. 1. Clayton Oliver (12 votes) =2. Tom McDonald (9) =2. Jack Viney (9) =4. Michael Hibberd (7) =4. Nathan Jones (7)
  20. Farewell Jack Watts

    Potential is such a dirty word. Whatever merits others may think that the pre-season commando courses might have, the aim of such things isn't just about bonding - its about getting individuals to understand their physical and mental limits. Will any individual reach their 'potential' if they just don't care enough. How did Watts go during preseason? We know he came back in less than ideal condition (not uncommon in clubs, but for a bloke entering his 9th season its not that common). One poster has already alluded to their being issues about Watts and his attitude on the preseason camp. I think his potential is more perception than reality. He may very well have a good season next year, but he has two years to run on his contract, not one.
  21. Jake Stringer

    Agreed. What made that delivery so special was the impact that it had. Day two of the first test and Australia hadn't batted that well on Day 1 to be all out for under 300. England appeared to be batting alright, but when Warne bowled Gatting everyone including the Poms knew that we had a weapon that was going to win us the Ashes. The previous Ashes tour of England Trevor Hohns had bowled well, but was really just doing what most spinners do in providing a cut out to the fast bowlers. Warne changed that with one delivery and signalled the resurgence of leg spin and a challenge to the quicks as a legitimate strike weapon capable of ripping the heart out of any middle order batting lineup.
  22. Jake Stringer

    Yeah- Nah. Gatting was a very good player of spin. He played for a normal leg spinner and thrust his pad outside the line of leg stump to nullify the spin as the ball pitched outside leg, he just wasn't prepared for the amount of spin and was beaten all ends up.
  23. Trade rumours

    3rd in their B&F, he was runner up in 2014 after debuting in 2013. Top ten in the other two years as well. I would think he'd be close to being one of their untouchables or as you say we pay way over the odds.... unless he asks to be traded. Don't know if he is OOC, but I suspect not. There's upheaval in the kennel ATM and that maybe some leverage McCrae can use if he really wants out.
  24. Farewell Jack Watts

    Not saying he didn't - just questioning the logic of the comparison that was being made.
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