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grazman

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Posts posted by grazman


  1. 49 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

    Yes, 'weird' manoeuverings! 

    To add to the Lyons intrigue, I just saw this:  "He was in exclusive company this year with Brownlow medallist Tom Mitchell, Patrick Cripps and new teammate Lachie Neale as the only players to average at least 24 disposals, 13 contested possessions and seven clearances...and part of why some industry figures AFL.com.au spoke to were so taken aback.  One called Gold Coast's decision "mind blowing", while another said "I'd have him in a heartbeat".  Lyons to Brisbane

    I can see why GCS no longer believed in him but to let a contracted and seemingly good player go, without testing his trade value, for zero return is mind-boggling, to say the least! 

    As you say - watch this space to see what future trades bring.

    I actually don’t think it’s that weird.  If you read between the lines there’s clearly a number of reasons why he was delisted by the Suns.

    1. It seems clear he has no defensive aspect to his game - or an unwillingness to follow the game plan at any rate (you would think that as a senior player this might not go down well with the FD - think Lynden Dunn)

    2. Despite getting a lot of the ball he butchers it.

    3. We know the Suns were having a salary squeeze and the article alludes to the fact he was on good coin.  He would have been happy to be delisted I suspect to pick up a three year contract now rather than the uncertainty of what sort of contract he could get after running around in the NEAFL for twelve months.

    4.  It’s highly likely their crosstown rivals knew this - so why trade for him if you don’t have to.

     

    The Suns win because they free up salary cap space at the same time as moving on a senior player who chooses to run his own race rather than follow team rules.

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  2. 2 minutes ago, A F said:

    Rather than looking at who becomes a FA in 2019, it might be better looking across the competition at who becomes one in 2020. Clubs who cannot get those FA's to sign by the end of next season will look to trade ala Hogan, May, Shiel etc.

    Does anyone have a list of those who become FAs in 2020?

     

    Josh Kelly.

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  3. 16 minutes ago, Redleg said:

    From the AFL site,   How is it not Draft Tampering?

    PORT Adelaide has fired a warning shot at Gold Coast, declaring it would back itself to lure highly rated draftees Jack Lukosius or Izak Rankine back home if the Suns recruit either of them. 

    Port list manager Jason Cripps effectively cautioned the Suns against taking either of them when speaking to NAB AFL Trade Radio on Monday.

    Gold Coast either have to back themselves in to keep whoever they draft or are resigned to losing them.    

    Cripps is being more than a little disengenuous to suggest that they should draft a Vic because there’s a bigger market to go home to. Players now inevitably get to go to a club of their choosing.

    He sounds like a playground bully, it also smacks a little of desperation over the fact that they might miss out on one of the SA kids. 

     

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  4. 5 minutes ago, Cards13 said:

    I feel like a filthy pirate after reading that. “Stand there ground and walk away”, uhhm huh? 

    It doesn't ring true though.  Why put out a public statement about 'due diligence' and imply that there's a problem with the merchandise - when it's actually the price you want to pay. i.e. you're happy to take the merchandise, but this is about being a small man in a big person's world and needing to 'bend 'em over'?

     

     

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  5. 8 hours ago, Nasher said:

    Ahh, here we go. The poster who knows eff all during the year, then at trade time, suddenly knows every intimate detail that gets discussed in the FD, right at the moment that you could probably just assemble all the rumours and take a wild stab and get to the same conclusion. Add a dash of “trust me, this is rock solid” and there you have it. 

    The only surprising thing is that it’s taken over 300 pages of this thread for him to turn up.

    But he says it with such conviction Nash, and we're only really looking to confirm our own bias in this thing after all.

     I choose to believe in aliens living amongst us - Jesse Hogan is an alien - there I said it!

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  6. 55 minutes ago, Pates said:

    This supposed Gold Coast trade I suspect is a load of 💩. His only reason for requesting a trade was homesickness and we were dealing with May for a possible deal following Hogan’s move west. He will not go to the Gold Coast. 

    The only possible way I see Jesse in Freo colours is that if another club gets involved in order to satisfy our desire for picks/May (GC could be involved as one of the clubs). But for now I’m assuming Jesse will continue being a Demon and we have every right to tell Freo to bugger off with any negotiations. 

    Is it though?  When I first saw it I thought it was pretty far-fetched, but it could have some substance, particularly if the real issue isn't homesickness. We have all conveniently fallen for that reasoning, but do we know it's true?

    With our list, it's unlikely Jesse could maximise his earnings like he could at either Freo or GCS.  The Suns may offer him  6 mil over 5 years if May leaves and they load the contract appropriately (apparently the Freo offer is 4.5 mil over 5 years).  God knows with the loss of Ablett and now Lynch they need some sort of drawcard to get the few fans they have to turn up to home games, it ain't going to be Lachie Weller.

    All this may or may not tempt Hogan (no pun intended), but I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility. 

     I could completely understand if Jesse and his manager may not want to ever speak to Freo again after what's gone on (again based on the assumption they were blind-sided by their churlish tactics the way everyone else was)


  7. 5 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

    The media is pushing the line that "GCS will get a top 3 pick for May as an FA next year so a trade should be a top 5 pick".  GCS are making noises for a high pick but are they really committed to that? 

    They know that if they push that line too hard they are admitting there will be no improvement at GCS next year.  ie No Hope!  That makes for a tough sell to the AFL, sponsors, members, draftees and potential trades.

    When it gets down to the wire they might just accept a lower pick or a combo of picks and players as they must set up to improve in 2019 and a top 5 pick, 18 yo kid is not going to do that.  . 

    Yep, and conveniently ignore that if they get a top 3 pick for him next year it will be from the AFL and not the club he goes to and also because they've stunk it up for another year.   They are conflating issues.  GCS do not want May at the club if he won't commit long term which he won't ergo they have to trade him for less than what they would get from the AFL next year.

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  8. 47 minutes ago, EnterTheDragon said:

    4 & 5 is too high for Hogan. Freo will strongly consider taking those picks to the super draft if we refuse to budge on that opening gambit.

    I think  the draft picks are arbitrary to a certain point in that pick 4 in one draft isn't equal to pick 4 in another. I think all that matters to the club will be for it to get what it needs to get the outcomes it wants ( May, KK and something else)

     

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  9. 1 hour ago, EnterTheDragon said:

    Mark Robinson was on FoxFooty the other night adamant the Dees should not receive two first round picks for Hogan. I wonder why? Could it be that an even stronger Melbourne outfit makes it that much harder for his beloved Bombers 

    Probably because it means we have a better hand to offer GWS for Shiel!

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  10. 1 hour ago, Richard Tionary said:

    I'm excited to see what we can do with the haul we receive. I'm surprisingly not that upset with Hogan leaving.For what it's worth Sam McClure has said that Gold Coast won't accept anything but overs for May this season, and will happily let him walk in FA next year and take the compo pick. Surely a top 10 pick for him and KK would be overs? 

    Yeah Nah.  This from the club that was emphatically not going to trade GAJ and hold him to his contract.  It's a millstone around their neck carrying a player they know won't be there the following season.  It's a distraction they need to do without.  Their tough talk is just that, they will get a good pick for May and they'll do it this year.  We're in the box seat compared to the likes of Collingwood and Hawthorn who don't look likely to be able to gazump us - providing May wants to play for the Dees.

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  11. 10 hours ago, Redleg said:

    Rumour that Carlton into the bloke at GWS who left us for $7m.

    Couldn't think of a better club for him to go to.

    sounds like SoS is planning on giving up Pick 1?  They must really be planning on throwing money at Kelly and Whitfield to stay.


  12. 10 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

    Posters need to realise that the points deal to get Port's 9 and 10 is 4 AND 22 that Freo get from Brisbane for Neale.

    The talk of us trading just pick 4 or even 5 for 9 +10 is fantasyland.  It's really not that hard to look up the points table.

    Also 5 + 10 for Hogan values him much higher than 4 + 22 for Neale.

    That's true, but is 6 & 10 fair value for Hogan?  That has to be the starting point for negotiations for  the MFC.  I don't think it's unreasonable to expect pick 5 & 6 for Hogan* (3629 points) In other words what is closest to what we paid for him in the first place (picks 3 & 13 - 3446 points) plus our development of him. If we need to we can throw in our third pick this year (ours not the one we have from Adelaide for Lever) likely pick 53 or thereabouts to even it out.

    Freo may well want to offer us  6 & 10, after they deal with Port  but for me that is unders for someone like Hogan.

    We could do that sort of deal for ourselves.

    Picks 5 & 6 and our first round pick for 2019 (somewhere between 1,112 and 985 points) for May, KK and one of their early picks (for arguments sake let's say pick 3 - 2,234 points).  We could then either use that pick ourselves or trade pick 3 and our second round pick this year (2736 points) for pick 9 & 10 (2864) which is better value for Port than (5 & 22 - 2723 points).  It also gives them what they presumably want which is the earliest possible crack at a SA kid. We would then obviously have to use one of picks 9 or 10 ourselves for trading out next year's first pick and look at converting the other pick for players or picks if we have other irons in the fire, which we do.

    So from a points calculation only ( I wouldn't be inclined to even out the trade with our third pick this year myself).

    Out. Hogan, 2018 2nd pick, 2018 3rd pick, 2019 1st pick.

    or Hogan and approximately 1822 current and future points+.

    In, May, KK, 2018 picks 9 & 10.  

    or May, KK and 2,864 current points. (or in rather simplistic terms it values Hogan as being worth May, KK and about pick 17)

     

    Freo lose Neale and their first pick this year, but get Hogan and pick 23 - that seems fair to me (but I am biased).

     

    *In all likelihood the draft order will be Brisbane 5 and Freo 6 after Lynch walks to Richmond.

    + assuming we finish 3rd next year as an indicator only. 


  13. 25 minutes ago, Big T Mac said:

    Hogan is worth Pick 4 & 5 

    Exactly.

    We can then look to trade both  4 & 5 to GC and something else*  for May, KK and Pick 2 or 3 which we can then try to trade to Port for 9 & 10 or keep for another trade or to use in the draft. 

    I'm not sure why a number of our supporters think that we would have to accept a trade like  5 & 10 for Hogan.  If Freo trade Neale for 4 and 22, then ergo Hogan is worth more to them than Neale (because that's why they're trading him). So it has to be pick 4&5, not the 'have my cake and eat it too scenario' that the Docker's supporters concoct.

    Logically if the Dockers traded 4 to Port for picks 9 &10 before trading with us, we'd be asking for 5, 9 & 10.  If they want to keep an early pick then they have to give up either Cerra or Brayshaw who they then have to replace with that pick.

     

    * We've apparently sought permission to trade our first round pick next year from the AFL, that probably only works from the AFL perspective if we use a first round pick this year so whether that's 4 or 5  for us to use or to bargain with one of the SA clubs that will tie themselves up in knots to draft one of the SA kids - who will be gagging to get as close to the number one pick as they can.

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  14. 42 minutes ago, Good Lord George said:

    Talk of Freo trading 4 or 5 to port for 9 and 10. Then ontrading the 10 to us with the remaining low pick for Jesse. 

     

    Why wouldn't we do that deal with Port ourselves?  I'd be disappointed if the club wasn't on top of this and demanding that it's Freo's and Brisbane's first picks or no deal until 2019; unless they want to trade us pick 5 and Cerra. 

    Freo can't have their cake and eat it too, 4 and 5 is closer to Hogan's worth than say 5 and 10 (Port will probably only do that deal if it can be Pick 4 to get one of the SA lads).  That deal sounds more like a fan trade than a realistic club option.

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  15. I 'm not sure winning the premiership will make much of a change to his decision making.  I think for Gaff it's a question of whether he wants to come home and be near his family (and be very well compensated) or remain at West Coast and be not so handsomely paid (but still on pretty big money). If anything it may free up room in the Eagles TPP due to not having to fork out over the top money to retain Lycett.  

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